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January 22, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “Out of college, money spent. See no future, pay no rent. All the money's gone, nowhere to go.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Courtney Hawkins
Position: OF
DOB: 11/12/1993
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1^st round, 2012 draft, Mary Carroll High School (Corpus Christi, TX)
2012 Stats: .284/.324/.480 at rookie level Bristol (38 games), Low-A Kannapolis
(16 games), High-A Winston-Salem (5 games)
The Tools: 7+ raw; 5+ hit; 6 arm

What Happened in 2012: Impressive professional debut for the back-flipping Texan, as Hawkins looked good early and finished the season at the High-A level.

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39 comments have been left for this article.

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bpk5555

How did Chris Knight go from our No. 1 to out of the Top 10? Did his lack of want finally catch up to him?

Jan 22, 2013 06:20 AM

rating: 2

Infrancoeurgible

I guess you can say his lack of #want has been a Bane to his development.

Jan 22, 2013 08:39 AM

rating: 3

froston

Was Nestor Molina even considered?

Are you producing a top 101 this year and if so, when does it drop and will all of the top 10's be done by then?

Thanks!

Jan 22, 2013 08:10 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Molina was not in the running.

Yes; top 101 will first drop in the BP Annual and then on the site.

The Top Tens might still be going when the 101 reaches land.

Jan 22, 2013 08:35 AM

John Carter

Could it be that Molina was merely hampered by a sore elbow last year? How did he manage to strike out so many batters in 2011 (while walking so few)?

Jan 23, 2013 07:14 AM

rating: -1

Jason Parks

BP staff

I thought he was overrated in 2011. I know he was missing bats and not walking hitters, but the overall profile didn't impress me. I always saw him as the type that can make it work in the minors but will struggle to make it work in the majors. As much as I would like to evaluate players in the vacuum of their level, scouting is about projecting that player to the highest level. Molina showed the ability to command a deep arsenal and keep minor league hitters off-balance, but the reality is that the stuff was always fringy and required sharp command to play. It's a backend profile at best.

Jan 23, 2013 07:21 AM

John Carter

Jason - how high are you on Brent Morel? Does he turn it around and take over thirdbase by mid May? Is his back problem going to hold him back?

Jan 22, 2013 08:23 AM

rating: -1

John Carter

. . . Mark? Nick? Dan?

Jan 22, 2013 08:24 AM

rating: 0

Mark Anderson

BP staff

I'm not particularly high on him. Even if he does turn it around he makes too much weak contact because he is far too willing to expand his strike zone. The back is a red flag and bears watching, but the larger problem is how his skill set actually plays against top-flight pitching.

Jan 22, 2013 08:38 AM

Jason Parks

BP staff

I'm not high on him at all. I don't think he develops into a quality major league contributor.

Jan 22, 2013 08:39 AM

Deech

Marcus Semien is an intriguing statistical profile - what do scouts say about him? Could he sneak up on us?

Jan 22, 2013 08:39 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Unlikely to sneak up, but not a bad prospect. I had a role 4 projection on him. Not a good profile on the left-side of the infield; not a highly projectable stick. He shows some pop and is more than a non-prospect, but not a major league regular for me.

Jan 22, 2013 08:45 AM

justiniodiddly

Granted I am used to grasping at straws for hope as a Sox fan, but does their supply of young live bullpen arms (Reed/Jones/Rienzo/Marinez) rank near the top of most teams, or do most teams have a glut of guys like this?

Jan 22, 2013 09:20 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Every team in baseball should have a few major league quality relief arms in their system. Not every team will have frontline guys, or arms that project to be closers, though. Not sure the Sox have any frontline closer candidates in the system.

Jan 22, 2013 09:24 AM

justiniodiddly

One other, Joe DeMichele, 3rd rounder out of ASU? Showed some pretty good pop for a 2B in his half season.

Jan 22, 2013 09:41 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Bad profile for me. The bat is unlikely to play as a regular at the major league level, and the defensive profile is on the right-side of the infield. That's not even a good utility profile. It's a fringe major league profile at 2B only. Tough to sell that.

Jan 22, 2013 09:51 AM

jalee121

I spoose the system looks better than say, last years (don't go back and look, seriously. It hurts the eyes) but this is still a top 3 worst system in baseball, right?

Further, any word on what Rich Hahn will be doing differently? I know we have almost nothing to go off of, but this is an awful system for a team that has not been picking late in the draft.

Jan 22, 2013 09:52 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

The system is better than last year, but still among the worst in baseball. The White Sox are notorious for going cheap in the draft and avoiding the LA market. That leaves you with a system devoid of high ceiling talent, made up of mostly low-ceiling college players. Perhaps the 2012 draft is a step in the "right" direction, and the organizational philosophy will be different going forward. I can't speak to that, though. I do think Rick Hahn will be a very good GM and will keep the team competitive, but it's not easy to turn around a system that has been neglected for years. It's not like they can't spot talent. It's more about resource allocation and focusing efforts on the major league team rather than the construction of a sustainable, talent-rich farm system.

Jan 22, 2013 10:04 AM

justiniodiddly

Are any of the LA guys they are signing recently intriguing at all? There were a bunch of articles about them strengthening this aspect when they signed Marco Paddy, but didn't know if they were actually following through.

Jan 22, 2013 10:43 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

3B Luis Castillo is very interesting. Brief profile of his skill-set in the "On the Rise" section.

Jan 22, 2013 10:45 AM

Mark Anderson

BP staff

SS Johan Cruz is another mildly intriguing LA signing. He's a quality defender that should settle in the above-average range at shortstop. His arm is strong. He shows some ability with the bat but is a serious work in progress.

Jan 22, 2013 10:52 AM

jalee121

Thanks for the information, Jason. One last question: Is the bonus scandal from a few years ago still really hurting this team in the DR and other international hot spots?

Jan 22, 2013 11:15 AM

rating: 2

dpc1178

Not counting arb eligible guys, virtually every contract is off the books after 2014. Danks (2016), Alexi (2015) and Keppinger (2015) are the only ones left. So, it would be an ideal situation to have a great farm system to reload and compete on the cheap. Unfortunately, that is not the Sox reality. So, they must hope the arb eligible guys improve and restock with free agency to have any hope of competing.
The other option, and this is entirely possible, is a 2013 fire sale if the team stinks. The Sox aren't going to get top of the line prospects for their trade chips --Konerko, Thornton, Crain all done after 2013 and Rios, Dunn and Peavy signed thru 2014...but it could be a way to add some additional depth to the system (but that depth would probably only add to the number of role players/4th and 5th starters they already have).
I'm depressed.

Jan 22, 2013 10:17 AM

rating: -1

19braves77

no mention of Jared Mitchell anywhere.....

Jan 22, 2013 12:16 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

He didn't make the cut.

Jan 22, 2013 12:20 PM

19braves77

is this a easy bottom 5 system for you ?

Jan 22, 2013 13:07 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yes. Bottom two system.

Jan 22, 2013 13:25 PM

amazin_mess

Who, pray tell, is worse? Milwaukee?

Jan 22, 2013 15:27 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Angels are probably the worst system in baseball. Haven't ranked them yet, but based on a preliminary sketch, the Angels system has a good chance of finishing last.

Jan 22, 2013 15:53 PM

wbw6b6

Jared Mitchell receive any consideration? The former lay star had a nice bounce back

Jan 22, 2013 14:11 PM

rating: 0

wbw6b6

Lsu not lay*

Jan 22, 2013 14:12 PM

rating: 2

delatopia

I was once a former lay star.

Jan 22, 2013 16:48 PM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

He doesn't have the same explosion that he used to. I don't see a major league regular.

Jan 22, 2013 14:22 PM

steely3000

Why wouldn't you consider Hector Santiago in your list of top 10 25 and under? He was on the major league roster much of the year, and seemed to improve as the year went on (especially when he started).

Jan 22, 2013 17:33 PM

rating: -1

Mark Anderson

BP staff

What says I didn't consider him. He was on the list of potential players but I ultimately don't think his control profile improves enough for sustained success. I prefer Rienzo's long term relief prospects over Santiago.

Jan 22, 2013 18:36 PM

Justice

How much upside do you see with Jose Quintana? How does Quintana compare with former left handed starters Scott McGregor and Jimmy Key?

Jan 22, 2013 23:26 PM

rating: 0

Mark Anderson

BP staff

There's not a ton of upside there for me, but what he is now is a nice back end starter and that's a valuable commodity.

Jan 23, 2013 15:09 PM

Asinwreck

Stunned this piece had no mention of Simon Castro's hands.

Jan 23, 2013 14:28 PM

rating: 1

evo34

General prospect question: do teams quietly apply an age inflation factor to the listed ages of Latin American players? It seems like whenever an age has proven to be false in the past, articles were written suggesting that teams widely "knew" the player was a couple years older than listed, and that the info. had already been factored into the player's contract/trade value.

The question is how widespread is lying about age believed to be today? If it is still significant, do teams have a decent feel for which players are higher risk or rather are they forced to hedge and apply a slight inflation factor across the board based on nationality?

Jan 25, 2013 01:44 AM

rating: 1

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<< Previous Article

Perfect Game's Preseas... (01/22)

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Prospects Will Break Y... (01/18)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (01/28)

Next Article >>

The Keeper Reaper: Fir... (01/23)

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