The Keeper Reaper: Rel... (01/09)
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January 10, 2013 The Keeper ReaperStarting Pitching for 1/10/13This week’s Keeper Reaper with starting pitchers tackles some of the bigger names who might be putting you to a tough decision depending on your league parameters. Zack Greinke | Los Angeles Dodgers Despite being one of the most coveted free agents during the offseason and joining a new team, Greinke’s family doesn’t have to pack up and move. Well, unless they never fully moved to LA after Zack was traded there from Milwaukee. At any rate, he is staying in LA while heading back to the more favorable league. A sabermetric darling, Greinke enjoyed yet another season where his peripherals suggested that he should have been better than he was, as evidenced by every ERA estimator in existence. It is time to start holding Greinke accountable for missing those marks, however, as we can’t just chalk it up to mere bad luck anymore. Greinke is prone to more implosion starts than you would expect from guys of his caliber, and those outings conspire to keep his ERA higher than it “should be” based on how great he is in the overwhelming majority of his starts. And if you watch these starts, you see that this isn’t just a rash of bad luck, in most cases, but simply poor performance. Since 2010, his 13 starts of allowing six or more earned runs are tied for the fifth-highest total in baseball. The guys ahead of him include names you won’t be surprised to see: Jeremy Guthrie (19), A.J. Burnett (18), Justin Masterson (17), Randy Wolf (14), and Luke Hochevar (14). He is tied with five others at 13, and again most of the names won’t surprise: Carl Pavano, Paul Maholm, and Gavin Floyd make you say “yeah, makes sense”, while Yovani Gallardo and Josh Beckett are on or near the level of Greinke in terms of surprise. We saw in 2009 how amazing he can be, but we are now three years removed from that Cy Young season, and it is time to start preparing for a mid-3.00s ERA while understanding the upside is there if he can avoid some of the meltdown starts. So while he grades out brilliantly with the statistics, and some might see him as worthy of keeping in that shallow format, I would pass and invest elsewhere.
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Interesting case you made about keeping Darvish over Greinke in a shallow league. On the surface, keeping Greinke seems like a no-brainer.
Expanding that out, in a 20-team dynasty league, if you aren't planning on being competitive in the next two years, is it worth holding onto Greinke till 2015-16?
What is the cost tied to keeping him? My guess is he'd still have significant trade value, especially if you're looking to move him during a great stretch.
I admittedly have limited dynasty experience (hoping to remedy that in '13), but can a team really be SO decimated that you're hopeless for 2-3 years? That'd be rough. I can understand a tear down, but wouldn't you build around some cheap potential and then stockpile studs in the draft in an effort to compete or flip them in June/July to get more of that cheap potential?
In all my other leagues, 2-3 years would be a long time to have no chance. This is a 20-team head-to-head points league. Most teams have 2-3 studs, some decent players and a whole lot of filler. Lot of teams flounder because they try to compete every year with middling talent.
My strategy is to sell high now, and gather up as much younger or undervalued talent now, so in 2-3 seasons, I have a team of 5-6 studs, a lot of decent players and very little filler. Sure, I could probably field a decent team now, but I want a dynasty that, once it hits it's stride, dominates for multiple years.
You should totally try it. Its fun seeing a master plan come together.