CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Click here to log in

Click here for forgotten password

Click here to subscribe

The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $6.86 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg )

<< Previous Article
Pebble Hunting: The No... (01/02)

<< Previous Column

Prospects Will Break Y... (12/21)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (01/07)

Next Article >>

Resident Fantasy Geniu... (01/03)

Printer-friendly

January 2, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “We take a walk, the sun is shining down, burns my feet as they touch the ground. Good day sunshine. Good day sunshine.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Austin Hedges
Position: C
DOB: 08/18/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 2^nd round, 2011 draft, Junipero Serra Catholic High School (San Juan Capistrano, CA)
2012 Stats: .279/.334/.451 at Low-A Fort Wayne (96 games)
The Tools: Elite defensive potential; 5 hit; 5 raw

What Happened in 2012: Hedges’s bat was better than advertised, as the defensive wizard showed signs of life and promise at the plate.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

45 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

Clooch14

What is your take on Jace Peterson? Can he stick at SS? He is old for his league but he has shown very effective OBP skills to go along with some good speed.

Jan 02, 2013 05:44 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

I actually like Peterson. I've seen him enough at the position to believe he can stick at the position, but he's not a wizard over there and the tools aren't crazy loud. He's a very good athlete that can play the game, but I think he's more of a role 4 type that might grind his way for more if given the opportunity.

Jan 02, 2013 08:08 AM

Peter Hood

How does Kevin Quackenbush, RP stack up. I realize he's just in HiA but could he make the show in 2013?

Jan 02, 2013 06:55 AM

rating: 1

jedjethro

Maybe some players out of that huge list of "on the rise" types should have made the top 10. For what's advertised as a good system the top 10 sure has a lot of back end rotation filler, bullpen setup guys and second-division starters. Maybe I'm just missing something when it comes to upside -- outside of Fried, Hedges and Ross.

Jan 02, 2013 07:42 AM

rating: 4

Jason Parks

BP staff

A legit setup arm in a 'pen has a lot of value, as do second-division starters that are standing at the gates of the majors. The goal of the minors is to produce major league quality talent, and the Padres should have a lot of that. Hedges, Liriano, Friend, Ross, and Wisler all have high ceilings, as do two of the three "On the Rise" players, and I could have listed several more high ceiling players, but they aren't in the same prospect tier at the present.

Jan 02, 2013 08:05 AM

jedjethro

Fair enough. I think a really good top 10, however, would feature more potential/probable high-impact players. But your point is well-taken about systems having to produce foot soldiers, as well. Thanks!

Jan 02, 2013 08:56 AM

rating: 1

rmunter

Shocking to still see Cam Maybin on the 25 and under list. Feels like he's been around for years at this point.

You could say this is potentially a team on the rise, but that pitching sure is thin.

Jan 02, 2013 07:53 AM

rating: 3

ablankface

Wow - can't believe how deep this system is now.

Was Franmil Reyes given consideration for the "on the rise" section? Looks like he started to put things together in the second half. Any info. on how he looks?

Jan 02, 2013 08:30 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

He was another name on the lengthy "On the Rise" list. He is a big, strong kid that can sting baseballs, but its difficult to gauge his progression in the DSL. Stateside ball in 2013 will be the big test. He's a prospect, but next year will start to tell us how legit he is.

Jan 02, 2013 08:35 AM

ablankface

Awesome - thanks

Jan 02, 2013 08:43 AM

rating: 0

wonkothesane1

Blake Tekotte was traded to the White Sox on November 7.

Jan 02, 2013 08:34 AM

rating: 2

Nick Faleris

BP staff

Thanks, wonk. Embarrasingly I missed that transaction. I let the editors know.

Jan 02, 2013 08:57 AM

Yarky1

Wonko, aka John Watson.

Jan 02, 2013 09:20 AM

rating: 0

preams

Jason-

Do you have info on Yeison Asencio? Was he close to the list? Is he one of the high ceiling guys you were talking about?

Jan 02, 2013 08:46 AM

rating: 0

Mark Anderson

BP staff

Not Jason, but...

Asencio is interesting, but I'm not sold on the high-ceiling idea, particularly given his new age. He's a solid player; average runner, solid glove, plus arm, has strength but lacks power (or power projection), makes lots of contact but swings out of the zone too much, more of a fringe guy for me.

Jan 02, 2013 09:07 AM

preams

Thanks for the reply, Mark. I thought that he had a little more power projection than that. Thanks for the info.

Jan 02, 2013 11:10 AM

rating: 0

thatfnmb

Any hope for Matt Lolis? Or is he just another large human?

Jan 02, 2013 08:46 AM

rating: 1

Mudeguy

What baffles me is that the Pads system is so deep, yet they insist on signing re-treads at the major league level. Right now, their roster looks like a AAAA team.

And they have a manager who notoriously favors veterans over younger players, and a front office that seems reluctant to pull the trigger on trades. As great as their system looks, the Pads destined to be stuck at the bottom of the NL West for a long, long time because of how they manage these young players.

Jan 02, 2013 08:51 AM

rating: -1

wonkothesane1

That seems unfair. The part of the system that has been the deepest was the lower minors. The veterans are stop gaps until these prospects arrive. The team has not been stocked with guys at AAA beating down the door. They almost had that with pitching last year (Wieland, Kelly, Erlin, Bass), but injuries kept those guys from spending a lot of time in the majors. Not the veterans. For the position players, 3 of the players in the 25 and under category were major league starters by the end of the season. Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera were the middle infield. There's nobody in the minors that was going to supplant Carlos Quentin or Chase Headley. And Rymer Liriano wasn't ready to be the RF. I don't see a major philosophy problem there.

Jan 02, 2013 09:32 AM

rating: 3

Geoff Young

BP staff

Bud Black plays the kids more than Bruce Bochy ever did.

Jan 02, 2013 09:53 AM

matthewverygood

Not possible. Take that back, Geoff!

Jan 02, 2013 10:28 AM

rating: 0

formersd

Black is much more patient with youngsters than Bochy ever was....

Jan 02, 2013 11:17 AM

rating: 0

Eddie

Interesting to see Grandal in the #1 position for u25's, but not a single mention of his suspension for PEDs?

Jan 02, 2013 08:53 AM

rating: 1

Nick Faleris

BP staff

I didn't consider the suspension to be particularly relevant to the rankings, but am happy to discuss here in the comments if there are specific items you feel warrant mention or discussion.

Jan 02, 2013 09:01 AM

Eddie

Well, the suspension itself should not affect the rankings... But the question of whether he would still be a top young player without the PEDs should be worthy discussion.

Jan 02, 2013 10:49 AM

rating: 2

phnath

I think this is a great question and I'd encourage BP to reply. Do you feel that Grandal's strong 2012 performance were PED driven? The ranking suggests BP believes he will repeat those results without the benefit of PEDs.

If Grandal is ahead of Hedges, that suggests he has AS upside which is a more aggressive projection than what I've seen in the past.

Jan 02, 2013 13:14 PM

rating: 2

Nick Faleris

BP staff

I don't think there is conclusive evidence as to the effect various PEDs have on players, and certainly not uniformly such that we can run the numbers through an algorithm an determine a "clean line" for use in statistical projection. Hedges has a higher upside than Grandal, but Grandal is at the big league level already. That weighed heavily in comparing the two players for purposes of a 25U list. If Grandal is an everyday first division catcher (which is still a question) that alone is arguably enough to rate him over Hedges for purposes of this snapshot look at the talent spectrum in the org.

That said, I wouldn't take issue with someone arguing Hedges as #1 here. The proximity disparity is just too great for me, personally.

Jan 02, 2013 14:23 PM

nturner0

Good list Jason. Do you have any idea why the team put Barbato in the bullpen this year? He started in 2011, and it seems odd that they would convert him so quickly. I thought he profiled as a starter.

Jan 02, 2013 09:39 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

It's complicated, and I don't want to speculate on something that I can't back up. Some arms aren't designed to be starters for a variety of reasons. be it that way they warm up, or their in game approach, or their arm action, or their arsenal, or their command, etc. I can't speak to the specifics, but from a developmental standpoint, it might end up being the best thing for the player and the org.

Jan 02, 2013 09:52 AM

matthewverygood

Very exciting time to be a Padres fan. Great list, Jason.

Jan 02, 2013 10:30 AM

rating: 1

darts1

It seems like a lot of the Padres pitchers have gone from #3 starters to #4 starters. (Kelly, Erlin specifically)Is that because their stuff hasn't developed, injuries curtailed their development, or becoming a #3 starter was too optimistic to begin with?

Thanks

Jan 02, 2013 10:30 AM

rating: 2

Jason Parks

BP staff

Not a wide gap between number three and number four starters. What is a #3 starter? It's most likely a pitcher that has the stuff to be a number two but lacks the consistency, or a pitcher with only average stuff that is consistent and plays up because of it. Ultimately, it's about execution.

Jan 02, 2013 10:34 AM

preams

Is Gyorko's defense in the Dan Uggla range at 2B? Would he immediately be the worst 2B in baseball defensively?
I ask because a 6 hitter with 5 power who can play 2B feels like a borderline all-star. Not too many 2B are hitting 280+ with a .450 SLG

Jan 02, 2013 10:55 AM

rating: 2

Jason Parks

BP staff

I think his overall defensive profile will struggle to be called average at the major league level, but I do think he will be able to hit enough to make it work.

Not a believer in the toolsy players you listed, but its hard not to enjoy toolsy players. I've always liked Tate, but he's not a very good baseball player, which is ultimately what matters.

Jan 02, 2013 11:22 AM

preams

Thanks, Jason.

Jan 02, 2013 11:25 AM

rating: 0

preams

Also-do you especially like any of the high-ceiling OF guys who have sort of stalled in the Padres system? I'm thinking of Tate (yikes!), Everett Williams, and Rey Fuentes.

Jan 02, 2013 11:04 AM

rating: 2

70Glove

Yes! I've been waiting for this one for a while. Great job Mr. Parks.

Based only on defensive ability, who would you rank higher, Hedges or Bethancourt?

Jan 02, 2013 13:28 PM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Hedges. Bethancourt has the crazy pop times and the insane arm strength, but Hedges is the better receiver and isn't far behind on the arm strength and catch/throw skills. Catching is more than just the physical characteristics, and Hedges has the type of makeup and baseball intelligence to develop into a true field general.

Jan 02, 2013 13:45 PM

pjatscfy52

At this point, is Luis Domoromo even a prospect with upside, or does he just have a cool last name?

Jan 02, 2013 14:34 PM

rating: 2

fandamage

Enjoyed the list, Jason. Glad to see the Pads' system hasn't fallen off from top-5 level after last year's rankings, but it still seems like quantity over quality, which you alluded to in your answer about the value of set-up/second-division guys. But it's tough to reach critical mass and get in to the playoffs without a few genuine studs, and that's why I loved the Fried/Eflin/Weickel picks in this year's draft.

I didn't like the Jankowski pick as much, but what are your thoughts?

Jan 02, 2013 15:33 PM

rating: 1

bloodface

Curious as to where you had Burch Smith? His 2012 was outstanding, and only dipped a bit as the season wore on.

Jan 02, 2013 18:16 PM

rating: 1

Greg

Would you say Hedges is the best defensive catcher in the minors?

Jan 02, 2013 19:44 PM

rating: 1

DrDooby

Would you rather have this system or the Mets system ?
Looking at the top players on this list vs the top players on the Mets top 10, I'd clearly prefer the Mets Top 5.
And not sure the SD 6 to 10 is better than Mets 6 to 10 if you go report for report. Upside & likelihood of reaching it seem quite similar.
And both systems run quite deep in potential MLB talent beyond top 10 to 15.

Neither system is in the STL or TEX range for now but if the Padres are top 5, where are the Mets ?

Houston, Miami, Minnesota, Tampa Bay or Boston also don't look worse than SD.

Jan 03, 2013 07:04 AM

rating: 1

formersd

Part of this is the Padres depth goes a lot deeper than is represented here. Padres stack a ton of mid-level prospects who aren't even getting mentioned in this article.

Jan 16, 2013 16:46 PM

rating: 0

lacerati

I recently moved from Chicago to a house equidistant from Petco Park and Lake Elsinore's Diamond. This is gonna be great!

Jan 04, 2013 19:59 PM

rating: 0

Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.

<< Previous Article
Pebble Hunting: The No... (01/02)

<< Previous Column

Prospects Will Break Y... (12/21)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (01/07)

Next Article >>

Resident Fantasy Geniu... (01/03)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Daily Hit List: Wednesday, May 22 Scouting the Draft: Center Fielders to Know Skewed Left: A Somewhat Happy 40th for the I... The Lineup Card: 7 Baseball Firsts We Expect... What You Need to Know: The No-Name O's Raising Aces: This Justin Overthinking It: Better in Baltimore	MORE FROM JANUARY 2, 2013 Pebble Hunting: The Non-Pitching Value of Pi... The Lineup Card: 8 Baseball Resolutions Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, January 2 Transaction Analysis: Royals Carry a Mig Sti... Fantasy Beat: Defense, BABIP, and James Shie... The Keeper Reaper: Relievers for 1/2/13
MORE BY JASON PARKS 2013-01-16 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Milwaukee B... 2013-01-11 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Philadelphi... 2013-01-07 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Arizona Dia... 2013-01-02 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: San Diego P... 2012-12-21 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Seattle Mar... 2012-12-18 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: New York Me... 2012-12-17 - Transaction Analysis: The Mets Deal Dickey t... More...	MORE PROSPECTS WILL BREAK YOUR HEART 2013-01-16 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Milwaukee B... 2013-01-11 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Philadelphi... 2013-01-07 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Arizona Dia... 2013-01-02 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: San Diego P... 2012-12-21 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Seattle Mar... 2012-12-18 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: New York Me... 2012-12-13 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Toronto Blu... More...