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December 27, 2012

Overthinking It

Handicapping the Injury-Prone Pitchers of 2013

by Ben Lindbergh

There comes a point in every fantasy draft when one owner drafts a particular player at a certain position—shortstop, let’s say—which reminds every other owner that they also need a shortstop and that there are only so many good ones left to go around. The ensuing collective hysteria causes a run on anyone eligible at that position, and by the time the league comes to its senses, Clint Barmes is the only shortstop still standing.

That’s essentially what happened on the Friday before Christmas, except with injury-prone starting pitchers. On Friday morning, the Twins signed Rich Harden. On Friday afternoon, determined not to be locked out of the injury-prone-pitcher market, the Indians signed Scott Kazmir and the Mariners followed suit by signing Jeremy Bonderman. (Brandon Webb is still somewhere on the board.) Realistically, except for their fingerprints, not much ties the current Kazmir, Harden, and Bonderman to the versions who had success several seasons ago. But the names are still notable, and the faces are still familiar, so we can't help but wonder whether the stuff might still be similar too.

Each agreement adhered to the same structure: a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training. We could have done Transaction Analysis entries on all three signings, but those would’ve adhered the same structure, too: if the injury-prone pitcher proves to be healthy and anywhere near as effective as he was at one time, the signing is a steal; if not, it's no skin off the team’s teeth. You don’t need us to tell you that once, let alone multiple times. For that, there’s Twitter:

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