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December 21, 2012 The Keeper ReaperOutfielders for 12/21/12Norichika Aoki | Milwaukee Brewers In his first MLB season, the 30-year-old Aoki surprised almost everyone with 10 homers, 30 steals, and a .290 average. His end-of-year line was rated 90th overall by our PFM, turning a nice profit for those who invested a buck or late-round pick to own him. Despite being expected to fill a fourth outfielder role for Milwaukee when signed, Aoki managed to carve out 588 plate appearances for himself with his productive play. Beyond normal aging concerns for any player past 30 though, there is reason to be skeptical that Aoki can retain his top 100 status for next year. Most suspicious is the power output of 10 home runs that he accomplished, which includes one inside-the-park home run. As Derek notes in this write-up of Aoki, all of his home runs were pulled just over the right-field fence, and looking at his Hit Tracker page confirms this observation. His 354 foot average True Home Run Distance was one of the lowest in the league, indicating he was lucky to hit as many over the fence as he did. As long as Aoki avoids getting traded to the Yankees, it is fair to assume he won’t have as many cheap-o’s sneak into the right field bleachers next year. Home runs aside, Aoki does appear primed for another productive year. He is slated to start in right and bat leadoff for the Brewers like he finished last season doing. With his good contact and on-base ability, batting around .290 with 25 steals should be within reach. Overall though, his limited ceiling prevents him from being valued higher. Torii Hunter | Detroit Tigers In his last year as an Angel, Hunter had another nice year, batting .316 with 16 home runs and nine steals. Beneath otherwise consistent surface numbers were inconsistent peripherals, most notably a .389 BABIP and declining contact rate that indicate tougher times are ahead for the now 37 year old. It’s overwhelmingly likely his meteoric BABIP will fall in line with his career norm, lowering his batting average back into the .270-to-.280 range. With an expected 15-to-20 homers and no more than 10 steals, Hunter is a player hard to get excited about.
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Surprise Me!
Interesting how high you are on Victorino...it woudl seem that you see his production simply as a result of opportunity and/or ABs at the top of a productive lineup. You really think he will hit 3rd? I guess I thought they would go Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Victorino, Drew, Salty....but i guess I could see Victorino slotting in 2nd and just moving everyone down 1 spot.
i certainly agree with what you said in terms of his potential value. even if he hits .260-.270 again, the everyday ABs will almost certainly lead to 90+ runs, and when you couple that with his standard 12-15 HR and 30+ SB, he makes for a solid OF3. And I also would agree that while I did say I see him as more of a platoon bat, I think there's almost no chance he gets thrown in a platoon next year. Dont sign him for that kinda money to only play the weak-side of a platoon. then again, i have no idea why they gave him that money in the first place.
all i know is that for the last 2-3 years i've watched him sturggle a lot. i think hes actually been worse than his numbers would indicate overall. between him and jimmy rollins, if i had to watch another sorta-deep flyball to RF as they swung for HRs despite being speed-first guys....i woulda lost it.
question for someone/anyone. why isnt Brentz being discussed as a possible semi-platoon partner for both Vicotrino and Gomes?...furthermore, how many managers are gonna lineup as many righties as possible to throw against Boston? Between Gomes, Vicotrino, Middlebrooks, and potentially Cody Ross(unlikely i guess at this point)...i guess they still have ellsbury, papi, and salty though. sorry just thinking out loud now. thanks for the reference there in the article. pretty cool. great read, as always.
sorry, i meant to say you really think he will hit 2ND, not 3rd.
Thanks, I appreciate the discussion, DarinRuf. Managers like to keep their lineups stable but it wouldn't be a bad idea for Farrell to bat Victorino second vs lefties and lower in the lineup against righties. We'll see what he ends up doing.
From what I read on Brentz, he's still raw and will likely spend most, if not all, of 2013 in Triple-A. Daniel Nava and Ryan Kalish though, are expected to platoon with Gomes in left. My feeling is Victorino won't be platooned, besides just the contract, he also provides value with his defense and baserunning--two things (mostly) independent of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound.