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January 7, 2013

Resident Fantasy Genius

Fantasy Value Round-Up

by Derek Carty

After today, we should be all caught up on players moving teams this offseason. In case I missed anyone, just let me know in the comments and I’ll circle back to give my thoughts.

Torii Hunter | Signed with Tigers | OF
Very small up arrow for Hunter, whose move from Los Angeles is largely a lateral one. He remains in a pitcher’s park that should keep his power output the same, and he’ll likely bat second in front of some serious (and slightly better) power threats in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Former manager Mike Scioscia and new manager Jim Leyland are both slightly less aggressive than a league-average manager on the basepaths, so the only steal-related decline Hunter should experience will be from his legs aging.

Lance Berkman | Signed with Rangers | DH
Berkman couldn’t have found a more favorable situation than Texas. He’ll DH for as many days as he’s healthy and rather than being given a day off to stay so, and he’ll be playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball with one of the best lineups in baseball. It looks like he may slot into the fifth spot in the order, behind Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz and in front of David Murphy and A.J. Pierzynski. He may be too old, risky, or boring for some fantasy players, and if that’s the case, he could come at a discount on draft day.

Mike Olt | Rangers | 1B/3B
Before the Berkman signing, Olt was penciled in for the DH spot for Texas. Now, the top prospect will again have to wait his turn or hope for a trade. There’s a chance he’ll supplant Mitch Moreland at first base at some point this year (or platoon with him, as he did down the stretch last year), but there’s no way I’m betting against my man Moreland. He deserves a starting job, even if the Rangers seem to be souring on him.

Drew Smyly | Tigers | SP
With the Tigers’ re-signing Anibal Sanchez, Smyly becomes the odd man out, which is a shame given his impressive numbers in 2011: 8.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.97 xFIP. He may have a chance to edge out Rick Porcello for the final spot if he has an impressive spring, but more likely he’ll begin the year at Triple-A. This is assuming, of course, that Porcello or Smyly himself isn’t traded, as has been rumored. If neither is moved, Smyly still makes a worthwhile AL-only option; a team’s sixth starter often generates double-digit starts.

Nate Schierholtz | Signed with Cubs | OF
Keep quiet, but early guessing indicates Schierholtz will be an NL-only favorite of mine this year. I drafted him in Tout Wars last year, but Bruce Bochy was out to get me, so Schierholtz was benched in favor of Gregor Blanco by May, but Schierholtz is the kind of solid-at-everything-but-great-at-nothing player that often gets undervalued in fantasy leagues. He’ll have to keep youngsters like Brett Jackson, Dave Sappelt, Tony Campana, and Matt Szczur at bay, especially by midseason, but an Alfonso Soriano trade could clear an extra spot as well. At least in the early goings, Schierholtz figures to bat second in the lineup of MLB’s most aggressive base-stealing manager, Dale Sveum. It’ll be the worth the gamble for a few bucks to hope he can establish himself early and start all year in such a favorable situation.

Hiroyuki Nakajima | Signed with A’s | SS
I haven’t spoken to scouts about Nakajima since last offseason, but back then, when the Yankees won his posting fee and let him return to Japan, word was that he’d probably be a utility infielder. I’ll try to get an updated view, but I’m not holding out much hope for Nakajima in anything but AL-only leagues where at-bats, even relatively empty ones, have value.