BP Comment Quick Links
![]() |
|
|
|
December 17, 2012 Transaction AnalysisThe Mets Deal Dickey to Toronto? UPDATEDby Ben Lindbergh and Jason Parks
Reportedly traded C-R Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Noah Syndergaard, C-R John Buck and OF-R Wuilmer Becerra to the Mets for RHP R.A. Dickey, C-L Josh Thole, and C-R Mike Nickeas. [12/17]
BP Comment Quick Links John Carter (22689) Alex Anthopoulos is no wimp, anyway. I would not have the guts to go this "all in". Does he play poker? Sam Rothstein (25767) D'Arnaud and Syndergaard are a steep price, but another starter is exactly what the Jays need. If this deal goes through it would allow Happ to be a swingman and move Romero to the 5 slot in the rotation. You're always going to have injuries, and their top pitching prospects weren't likely to contribute in the bigs this coming season. At the very least Dickey gives them serious depth and 200 innings; however, at this price I would hope he gives them something closer to last season. jdeich (50647) Let's assume for a moment that environmental conditions affect the knuckleball significantly. Is it legal for the Jays to adjust the Skydome's roof and/or HVAC differently on a day Dickey will pitch? They obviously couldn't make it 50 degrees with saturating humidity if they still want fans to attend, but subtle changes are in the realm of possibility. John Carter (22689) Sure. Teams tinker with the grass - depending on the infielders, baserunners, and bunters. It's an accepted strategy. Unless there is a rule against it, you can't call it cheating. Some might call it unsportsmanlike, but I think negative behaviour sorts of things like spiking or badmouthing someone falls under that category. I'd be more inclined to call it "competitive spirit". I believe the open/closed status of the roof is at the home team's discretion, at least during the regular season and if the decision is made before first pitch. The Jays couldn't, for instance, keep opening and closing the roof during the game depending on who's hitting. But as far as I know, they could keep it closed for a Dickey start on a day with perfect weather if they wanted to. Of course, there are other considerations besides how the environmental conditions would affect Dickey (the quality of the fan experience, for instance). It'll be interesting to see whether any gamesmanship goes on, though I doubt it would be worth it without hard evidence that it would have a significant effect. Dec 17, 2012 08:32 AM Llarry Amrose (1146) While he was in Arizona, Curt Schilling wanted the roof closed. It was closed. That's an easy sell in July and August, but in April and the last half of September, it can be really nice having it open. Didn't matter. Fans'll live with it, especially if they believe it will help their team. (Curt could be a prima donna, but he was *our* prima donna, dammit...) DetroitDale (31270) The point "whoever wins the winter doesn't always win 90 games" is well taken, but in light of recent developments it looks like the angels in the west, tigers in the central, jays in the east, and a rangers rays wildcard. Am I reading this wrong or are we potentially, if all goes according to hoyle, looking at a postseason free of yankees and red sox even with the extra team added? jhensley (66341) I think the Yanks/Sox will have something to say about the AL, both of those teams still have solid talent. ScottyB (23917) Richard Bergstrom (36532) I'm glad the Jays are making good, quality moves to be competitive in the AL East. Eddie (27257) Is there a reason that this comment has a -5 rating? Something I missed perhaps? Tynan (24433) He constantly comments in regards to transaction impacts on his fantasy team. It gets old. Richard Bergstrom (36532) No, not constantly. Just so happens that quite a few trades lately affected the one fantasy team I have. Also, there are at least two other people who regularly comment on BP who are in the same fantasy league and with how slow the offseason is in general, it's nice to have something additional to chat about. amazin_mess (9525) Pretty nitpicky to negative someone for a comment like that. Richard Bergstrom (36532) It happens. Every so often there are a few people who come out of the woodwork and, without saying anything, minus every comment I make for a few weeks. I usually ignore the +/- ratings I get and usually the minus bats go away after awhile. brian206 (56444) Is there any concern over the fact that D'Arnaud is older and still has not debuted? How many starts players are still in the minors at 24? BayCityM (68601) Next season is going to be a blast to watch as a fan. With so many teams really going for it, it will be something to watch all season. Only one team can end up with a ring at the end of the year. I think it is especially fun that the teams making the moves aren't the Sox and Yanks. Oldwell89 (67700) I mean the Mets weren't going to give him Dempster money! That's a pretty friendly deal, and I'm sure the injury riddled 2012 season makes the appeal of stockpiling starting depth valuable for Toronto. I agree that Blue Jays are really going for it, and the Royals are sort of giving it a go. Long term Mets will likely come out ahead, but if the Jays put some playoff appearances or flags up over the next 3 years, I doubt they'll be sorry. Ironhorse (24618) I was living a few minutes from the Astrodome the whole time Joe Niekro pitched there (in every role from SP to CL), time that overlapped with Phil in Atlanta and Charlie Hough a division foe of the 'Stros. To add to the anecdotal evidence, the knucklers that were spun sure seemed effective. We almost always sat right behind the homeplate trio, just back of the commish's box at the head of the Astro dugout, or on the second row about the middle of the dugout. So, very close to the pitch chute. The Niekros were both vocal from time to time about their fondness for the park/mound/effects. Dig a Pony (41677) The thing with Dickey is that he's a knuckleballer who throws like a regular pitcher. His arm speed is at fastball speed and he gets tired after 100 pitches and needs the 4 days between starts. I'm not sure he's going to be high end effective at 39-40 years old and I think the Mets thought that too. The Mets hired Alderson to make decisions and trades like this and I think Alderson had no intention of keeping Dickey at any price. Fortunately for him, Dickey and his agent came in at a contract request just high enough to cause Alderson faux consternation and alert other teams that a Cy Young pitcher was on the market. Toronto gave the Mets more than they probably thought they could get so kudo's to Alderson for extracting it. Sam Rothstein (25767) Traditional knuckleballer or not, the number of pitchers who have won a Cy Young award at 36 and older is a pretty short list, and generally they have all done well in their subsequent seasons. slascher (30872) Surprised to see Jason Parks' comment that catchers take longer to develop than other position players. My impression has always been the opposite: great catchers often debut (and peak) at a relatively young age (Bench, Carter, Mauer). I suppose Piazza and Fisk are mild counterpoints.... Jason, is there data on that? John Carter (22689) One thing that hasn't been said (that I've noticed - or, perhaps, it is too obvious) - is that what this trade is really all about for the Blue Jays: Jose Bautista. Superstudly hitters like him don't come around very often. When they do, it is time to build a winner around him - especially if you have the money and the minor league talent available for selling. Bautista is 32 now - who knows how many studly years he has left. That makes Dickey, Reyes, Buehrle, etc. good fits. randolph3030 (17064) Weird that the Jays had to give up a talent package worthy of a Top 5 SP, but then only had to pay Dickey like a Top 50 SP. Either RA's got a mediocre agent or he just wanted the security of a small-outrageous fortune. Richard Bergstrom (36532) It's the same amount he asked the Mets for, I believe. randolph3030 (17064) Still seems strange. The Mets wouldn't pay him like an ace, but were then able to extract an ace's price in the trade. The Jays paid an ace's price in assets, but then were able to sign him for much less than an ace's salary. Seems like a disconnect to me. John Carter (22689) First, I doubt even that package would have bought Verlander, Felix, Price, Kershaw, or Cueto to name five. Richard Bergstrom (36532) On ESPN, Dickey's theory is that the Mets were waiting for the other free agent pitchers like Grienke etc to sign so that Dickey's price would be driven up. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Also, at the salary the Jays are paying Dickey, he doesn't have to be an All Star. And, all things considered, they do have a young catcher in Arencibia who is competent enough. BurrRutledge (18981) I understand where you're getting that feeling. I think you're seeing an inverse relationship where his low price tag 3/$30m is one of the factors contributing to the better prospect haul. If his salary demands were 3/$45m, Toronto wouldn't be offering as nice a prospect package. froston (62877) I made a lazy aging curve for prominent knuckle ballers using RA9-Wins. Thought people might be interested. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Small sample, but interesting that Dickey and knuckleballers in general peak at 35 and maintain through their early 40s. froston (62877) Yeah, these 11 prominent guys demonstrate more of a plateau than a peak, from 35-39. And then the decline after that was very much in a standard fashion (-0.48 wins per year). froston (62877) So I incorporated pretty much every knuckleball pitcher in history into the curve now (based on a wikipedia list). Not much changed, the plateau is still there. The peak did change from 35 to 39, which is kind of interesting I guess. Decline is still very standard once a knuckleball pitcher gets over the hill (-0.52 wins per year past 39). The peak at 45 is obviously random, only 4 guys are left alive there and Phil Niekro had a great year.
|





47 comments have been left for this article.
Nobody feels the Blue Jays are overdoing it? They've left no room for a pitching prospect to be promoted to the starting rotation - and they are still rich in that department. Syndergaard might have been that guy. They are now weaker behind the plate - by both having an inferior back-up to Arencibia and by trading away D'Amaud who will soon be, if not already is the better starter - on his way likely to being much better.
Sure, knuckleballers age well, but they often have relapses after their breakout season. That happened to last two highly successful ones: Wakefield and Candiotti. Charlie Hough was an established fine reliever, but struggled during his transition to starter. Phil Niekro - I'm sure the Jays would be very happy with his career (or Candiotti's)- but he did have a few off years including year 3 after his break out season. His brother Joe didn't rely on the knuckleball as much, but was consistently good once he mastered it.
Dickey's breakout season was 2010, just no one noticed. He's been one of the 3-5 best SPs in the National League over the last three years.
Plenty of room for their prospects to come up and contribute in the pen, which is what clubs seem to be doing. And I'm not sure I understand the concern anyhow, would you rather have a crummy pitcher in your rotation just so you can replace him instead of a good one?
As for D'Arnaud, it wasn't more than two years ago when Arencibia had scouting reports just as (or more) glowing. Sure, Dickey is less of a certainty than most pitchers coming of a Cy Young, but the notion that a player with 0 MLB at bats and an injury history is already a league average player is optimistic.
Dan W: OK, but Dickey has certainly kicked it up another echelon going from a 15% K% to 25% - without an increase in walks. His K/BB has gone from just two and a half, which is quite good for a knuckleballer to 4.24, which is probably unprecedented for a knuckleball starter. The best I could find among the Niekro brothers, Hough, Candiotti, or Wakefield was 3.39: Niekro in 1969. Wakefield's career K/BB was/is 1.79. Joe Niekro's was worse. I admit that I am warming up to this deal now - as a Torontonian.
SC & Nathan: Some fair points about the pitchers, although, I still think it would be better for the Jays to improve themselves at secondbase, for example, than to block their young potential starters from reaching the rotation. And Happ isn't crummy.
However, I remain un-budged about the catching situation. J.P. Arencibia snuck into Baseball America's Top 50 (no. 43) after his age 22 break out season in AA. His next season at AAA was a disappointment and he fell out of the Top 100. Travis D'Amaud's defense has always been more highly regarded than Arencibia's and was in the Top 100 after his age 21 season. After his break-out at age 22, he was no. 36, then moved UP to #17 after his continued success in AAA. At the Major League level, J.P. has shown he can hit them out now and then, but his On-Base Average was only .275 down from .282 the year before. His defense is among the worse. It is not unreasonable to expect much more than that from Travis D'Amaud.
Pitchers get hurt.