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December 4, 2012

Minor League Update

The Five Dominican Winter League Prospects Most Likely to Make an Impact in the Majors in 2013

by Jason Martinez

Limited action again on the Caribbean Winter League schedules, so I'll take this time to tell you about the five Dominican Winter League prospects most likely to make an impact in the majors next season. No surprises here. These are pretty big names in the prospect world, and all but one spent time in the majors last season. All five maintain rookie status, however, and don't necessarily have clear paths to regular playing time in the majors. So how will this quintet make an impact?

Starling Marte, OF, Pirates (.874 OPS, 8 SB in 24 games for Escogido): Of the five players on this list, Marte easily has the best shot at a starting job on Opening Day. A fantasy baseball stud who can put up numbers in several categories, he can hit for average, steal bases, hit homers and triples, and could very likely be the Pirates' leadoff hitter. So he has to be a lock for 150+ games in the Bucs' outfield, right? Not necessarily. As a young player who hasn't exhibited much plate discipline throughout his minor league career, and during his brief big league stint (8 BB, 50 K), he could be prone to extended slumps as major league pitchers continue to attack his weaknesses.

If he can make adjustments throughout the season, he can stick in the majors. And if he sticks in the majors, he could hit .270 with 90 runs, 15-20 homers, 25 doubles, 10 triples, and 25 stolen bases as a rookie.

Mike Olt, 1B/3B/OF (.814 OPS in 18 games for Licey): Texas' loss of free agent Mike Napoli leaves the team short on right-handed power and Olt could have an opportunity to help fill the void. He won't get many starts at his natural position of third base unless Adrian Beltre gets hurt but he could see significant time at first base, a corner outfield spot, and as the designated hitter against lefties. With rumors that there could be teams interested in Michael Young, who'd have to approve any trade, the 24 year-old Olt could also be the beneficiary of the designated hitter at-bats available against right-handed pitching if Young is moved.

In 95 Double-A games before his call-up, he hit .288 with 28 homers in 354 at-bats. If he can get 300 at-bats in the majors next year, I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 15 homers and knocked in 45 runs.

Jurickson Profar, SS/2B, Rangers (.501 OPS in 15 games with Licey): Finding enough at-bats for Olt and Profar might not appear feasible without the Rangers making a trade this offseason. This is major league baseball, though, where players tend to get hurt very often. Odds are that both players get regular at-bats in place of an injured player at some point in the season. But if this Profar kid is as good as everyone says he is, maybe it won't take an injury for him to get a shot. The Rangers could move Ian Kinsler to the outfield to open up second base. That might be the easiest possible solution. Or maybe they do something really bold like trading shortstop Elvis Andrus. Regardless, I'd expect the switch-hitting rookie to have 300+ at-bats of major league experience by the time we get to September and the Rangers are fighting for the division title.