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December 3, 2012

Transaction Analysis

All the Loney People, Where Do They All Belong?

by Ben Lindbergh

IN THIS ISSUE

American League

Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers

National League

Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

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Signed 1B-L James Loney to a one-year, $2 million contract. [12/3]

Combine the batting average of Carlos Pena with the power of Casey Kotchman and you get James Loney, reportedly the Rays’ new first baseman. Okay, the first part isn’t fair—Loney makes much more contact than Pena, and it took a career-low BABIP for the .282 lifetime hitter to finish under .250 last season. The power part is, though, and even though Loney is durable—he’s never been on the DL, at times to the Dodgers’ detriment) and plays good defense, a rebound in his BABIP would leave him well short of the offensive standard at his position.

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12 comments have been left for this article.

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nschneider

(20893)

Did you get clearance from Jason to use an (almost) Beatles lyric?

Dec 03, 2012 09:31 AM

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rating: 3

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

I'm not sure how much signing Fujikawa and trading Marmol are related. Teams have traded away closers before without having an obvious replacement. Billy Beane's infamous for that.

Dec 03, 2012 09:35 AM

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rating: 0

gweedoh565

(48688)

Yes, but:

"A" has happened without "B"

...does not mean...

"B" enables "A"

...is untrue.

Dec 03, 2012 10:55 AM

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rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

And what I'm saying is:

"A" has happened without "B"

...does not mean...

"B" enables "A"

... is true.

Dec 03, 2012 11:01 AM

link

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

Or to rephrase:

The Cubs were already in a position to trade Marmol without an obvious replacement, such as the Haren rumors. They were already looking to move him before Camp was even re-signed. Signing Fujikawa doesn't really give them any extra freedom.

Dec 03, 2012 11:05 AM

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rating: 0

Cromulent

(32088)

If Loney produces 1 win for $2 million, isn't that a victory by free agent market standards? Do you project him below 1 win or am I missing something?

Also, pretty much everybody on Tampa is in a platoon of some type, so I would expect the same for Loney.

Dec 03, 2012 11:48 AM

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rating: 0

tbwhite

(361)

I think Loney is going to be a HUGE bargain for the Rays. He's got an .807 career OPS on the road, vs .707 @ home. Factor in the platoon split, and if TB plays him vs RHP only, a line like .300/.360/.490 seems about right. Now throw in the fact that he is 28/29 which is prime time as far as career years go, he's coming off a sub-par season perhaps fueled by some bad luck(based on his low BABIP), and he is on a one year contract and it's his last hope of breaking through and getting a big contract. Everything is in alignment for him to go off, I think this a great signing.

Dec 03, 2012 13:11 PM

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rating: 0

Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

(37618)

You are considerably more optimistic than I.

Dec 03, 2012 13:30 PM

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Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

I think Loney is going to be a minor bust for the Rays. True, he's got an .807 career OPS on the road, but that's with a .932 career OPS at Coors and a 1.042 career OPS at Chase Field, two former NL West rivals. Factor in that he'll be in the AL East and hasn't had a full season OPS over .800 and a line like .280/.340/.420 seems about right since they are right about his career numbers, but still below an average 1B numbers. Now throw in the fact that he is past 29 which is past prime time as far as career years go, he's coming off a sub-par season perhaps fueled by some bad skill (based on his low BABIP since, if you're consistently around a .300 BABIP, it means you aren't really hitting a lot of line drives), and he is on a one year contract and it's his last hope of breaking through and getting a big contract. Nothing really is in alignment for him to go off, so I don't think this a great signing.

Dec 03, 2012 16:45 PM

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rating: 0

tbwhite

(361)

Factor in that you missed Loney's 1.190 OPS at Tropicana Field and it's obvious that he will be the 2013 AL MVP, not to mention the first batter to hit over .400 since whenever that happened last.

Dec 03, 2012 18:04 PM

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rating: 1

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

You're right, I missed those 24 at bats at Tropicana, my bad.

Dec 04, 2012 03:33 AM

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rating: 0

jfranco77

(64578)

If Loney is replacement level with the bat and +10 runs with the glove, I'm guessing the Rays are happy. Is it possible that given all their shifting and trickery on defense, they have a higher than usual need for a non-statue at 1B?

Dec 04, 2012 04:44 AM

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rating: 0

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