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November 26, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Miami Marlins Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “The future still looks good. And you've got time to rectify all the
things that you should.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Jose Fernandez
Position: RHP
DOB: 07/31/1992
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1^st round, 2011 draft, Braulio Alonso High School (Tampa, FL)
2012 Stats: 1.59 ERA (79 IP, 51 H, 99 K, 18 BB) at Low-A Greensboro; 1.96 ERA (55 IP, 38 H, 59 K, 17 BB) at High-A Jupiter
The Tools: 7 fastball; 6+ curveball

What Happened in 2012: Fernandez made his full-season debut and flat-out dominated in the Sally League, and then continued the trend after a promotion to High-A.

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26 comments have been left for this article.

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Eddie Bajek

AA Jacksonville is going to be downright loaded this year. I can't wait.

Nov 26, 2012 04:17 AM

rating: 0

jfranco77

That is a pretty nice 25-and-under group. But it wouldn't look nearly as good without Giancarlo.

Nov 26, 2012 04:43 AM

rating: 0

JoshC77

Perhaps, but you'd have to factor in the type of return they would get for him.

Nov 26, 2012 05:30 AM

rating: 1

karp62

I wonder if the Marlins were offered David Phelps, Gary Sanchez, Eduardo Nunez and Jose Campos for Stanton, would that be enough for them to swing a deal. If not, what would sweeten the deal enough to do it?

Nov 26, 2012 06:05 AM

rating: -3

Jason Parks

BP staff

I wouldn't think so. That's not a very attractive package. If you want Stanton, it would take several blue-chip prospects, and possibly some young major league talent.

Nov 26, 2012 06:06 AM

Behemoth

I'm unconvinced that the Marlins would accept their free choice of any four Yankees prospects for Stanton. Most teams just don't have the pieces to deal for him.

Nov 26, 2012 06:12 AM

rating: 4

Hudson Belinsky

BP staff

I'm with Jason. Stanton is a special player with several years of team control at a very affordable rate. Any package for him would have to be insane.

Nov 26, 2012 06:25 AM

johnorpheus

You could probably count on one hand the number of teams that have the top end, major league ready talent necessary to land Stanton. Only two really come to mind as being able to meet Stanton's price: Rangers (Profar and Olt) and Cardinals (Taveras and Miller). Basically, I think you'd be looking at a team having to have two top 10 prospects in all of baseball to offer the Marlins.

Nov 26, 2012 12:58 PM

rating: 2

jpaternostro

I really just came for the empty wizard, but I do have a question now: What's keeping Fernandez from the vaunted ace ceiling right now? Is it more lack of current change or the command issues? And could he theoretically bump that ceiling up with some refinement in AA this year>

Nov 26, 2012 08:17 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Aces are extremely rare, and they usually posses either pinpoint command or multiple secondary offerings in the plus-plus range (or both). Fernandez is a hoss, but I don't think the changeup achieves that level of maturity. Of course, "Aces" don't exist in the minors. Aces can only appear at the major league level, when the on-the-field results achieve a high-standard over an extended period of time.

Nov 26, 2012 08:27 AM

Behemoth

Does that mean that you wouldn't project anyone as having an ace/#1 ceiling?

Nov 26, 2012 11:47 AM

rating: 0

Mark Anderson

BP staff

I won't speak for Jason, but any mention of "ace" or "#1" ceiling on a prospect is extremely rare in my own writing. That's rare air that I don't believe many prospects are capable of touching.

Nov 26, 2012 11:58 AM

johnorpheus

I think a prospect would have to be Strasburg/Mark Prior level to have an Ace/#1 projection as a prospect.

Nov 26, 2012 13:02 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I don't actually consider them to be the same thing. It might seem confusing, but a pitcher can have all the characteristics of a number one starter but not be an "Ace." As I mentioned, Aces are created at the major league level through high-end performance and consistency. Justin Verlander entered major league baseball with a number one ceiling, but only through his consistent high-end performance did he emerge as an ace.

Nov 26, 2012 13:17 PM

hyprvypr

This still seems a bit strange to me. So a player can come into baseball with a '#1' ceiling, which sounds like what most people define as an 'ace'. But to achieve the 'ace' status from Jason Parks, he needs to demonstrate consistency at that high level.

So reading further into it, a guy can have '#1 stuff' and not be an ace if he is not consistently displaying it, year to year. Therefor, any pitcher with #1 stuff can become an ace, but can only do so through consistency pitching at the highest level in the game, not through minor league success or even physical tools/pitching ability in the minors. Example: Jorge Mauler has a 115 MPH fastball with hard arm-side run, perfect location, a filthy, disappearing changeup, an 80 slider that wipes out lefties and righties and excellent command, presence, poise, knows calculus, great makeup... Still doesn't earn the label ace from Jason until he's in the bigs mowing down hitters for a few years...

Jan 03, 2013 16:49 PM

rating: -3

andrews

By demonstrating durability and the ability to pitch alot of innings/go deep in games occasionally to marry to that stuff?

Feb 08, 2013 08:22 AM

rating: 0

jmoultz

Excellent work again, gents. I was curious if you had any thoughts on Adam Conley. I figured he would have been on the bubble for this list with the LH heavy fastball and plus change. Was the lack of dominating breaker the issue or were there other concerns? Thank you again.

Nov 26, 2012 15:16 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Exactly. He was on the bubble for the list, with a sinking, low-90s fastball, impressive changeup, and not as impressive breaking ball. #4/5 profile without a ton of upside but good pitchability.

Nov 26, 2012 15:21 PM

ethanwitte

Nicolino sounds like Hamels, minus the velo. Hamels was VERY CH dependent until he developed the cutter. Hamels doesn't have a top notch FB, but the CH is so good, it makes the FB play up. Are there similarities?

Nov 26, 2012 17:55 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Hamels had a more consistent FB, better CB, and his CH was/is at least a full-grade better. They have a similar profile, but Hamels became elite for a reason. That CH is a near 8 pitch, which makes everything else look better as a result.

Nov 26, 2012 20:47 PM

bheikoop

When you state "at present" or "present" is that implying the expectation is for that specific tool or skill set to fall off?

Nov 26, 2012 19:26 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Not necessarily. It would depend on the tool in question and the context of the discussion. When I say "at present," I just want to clarify that I'm not talking about a projection or a future grade.

Nov 26, 2012 20:31 PM

R.A.Wagman

Two things:
1) Is there any reasonable hope left for Kyle Skipworth?
2) Would it be possible to add the totals for games pitched for pitchers and PAs for position players? It would help me see - through the numbers - the guy's usage pattern without clicking away. Would be much obliged.

Nov 26, 2012 21:05 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

1.) Maybe a platoon future. Maybe some hope.
2.) All you have to do is click on the player name to link to their BP player card. More stats available on that page. It's just one click away.

Nov 26, 2012 21:23 PM

Llarry Amrose

This list kind of scares me. It has a higher concentration of 2013/14 arrivals and fewer 16/17 than the other teams so far. I'm not so worried about a Miami Youth Explosion in general, but if it happens sooner rather than later, that will only serve to reinforce to the Lorianites (and maybe others) that this extreme boom/bust cycle might be a valid way to operate a franchise.

Nov 27, 2012 09:43 AM

rating: 0

skaron01

Wanted to note a discrepancy on the Prospectus home page. Yelich is listed as the top prospect there. Thanks.

Dec 02, 2012 06:42 AM

rating: 0

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