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November 16, 2012

Transaction Analysis

Melky Flees To Canada

by Sam Miller

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Reportedly sign Melky Cabrera to a two-year deal worth $16 million. [11/16]

If you were playing Taboo and you drew the card for Melky Cabrera, what might the disallowed related words be? Scanning the web, probably these:

Cheap
Discount
Affordable
Steroids
Bargain

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Related Content: Toronto Blue Jays, Melky Cabrera

14 comments have been left for this article.

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juiced

(41014)

It's a brilliant deal. 16 million over 2 years aint gonna break anybody's budget if Melky craters. If he is a 2 warp player next two seasons its a bargain. If he is a 3 warp player and up its a steal. He doesnt have to repeat a 5 warp season for this to pay off big time for Toronto.

Nov 16, 2012 12:58 PM

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rating: 3

John Hilton

(24866)

Totally agree. Cabrera lets the Jays keep Gose in AAA, where he belongs for now. Even a league-average LF performance would suit the Jays nicely.

Nov 16, 2012 13:27 PM

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rating: 3

Matt Commins

(63058)

Totally agree; let Gose develop in AAA; I wouldn't trade Rasmus; I say keep both Bonifacio and Rasmus in case players are out for an extended period of time

Nov 16, 2012 19:59 PM

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rating: 1

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

I'd think the Jays might've overpaid a bit just because it's harder to lure agents north of the border... also, a tad bit harder to get those PEDs through customs.

Nov 16, 2012 13:36 PM

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rating: -2

Behemoth

(46675)

Why do you think they overpaid? 1.5-2WAR or whatever is needed to break even at $8 million a year seems eminently likely.

Nov 16, 2012 15:03 PM

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rating: 1

John Hilton

(24866)

Maybe the Jays did overpay a bit, but when the team has the reputation that the Jays have had over the past 20 years, it is going to cost you more to attract talent.

I do want to bring up one point about cost. Can anyone think of any Yankees player who has signed a below market deal? For all the talk about everyone wanting to play for the Yankees, I just wonder if it is true.

Nov 17, 2012 07:15 AM

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rating: 1

ScottyB

(23917)

Pettite, Chavez and Jones this past year.

Nov 17, 2012 09:49 AM

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rating: 2

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

When I mean overpaid, I mean the idea that Melky got more than what Sam's industry quotes suggested and articles elsewhere have suggested. I still think the Jays got good value, especially compared to Hunter.

And on the PED thing, there was that one doctor (or was it his secretary) who got busted trying to get PEDs across the border.

Nov 17, 2012 13:21 PM

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rating: 0

John Carter

(22689)

Negatives? Com'mon, people, have a sense of humour!

Nov 18, 2012 18:03 PM

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rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

Over-under that Melky outperforms Hunter?

Nov 16, 2012 14:34 PM

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mbodell

(89)

I'd say it is about 50/50 who hits better next year, and maybe Melky is a 2/1 favorite to hit better the following year. As for defense, I think it is also pretty close too.

Nov 16, 2012 17:44 PM

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rating: 1

John Hilton

(24866)

I would bet on Melky because he is 28 and you are getting him for his peak years (whatever that may be given PED - I'm not buying statements that they don't help that much). Hunter is in his mid 30s, and he is much more likely to decline for that reason alone.

If Melky does well, you can trade him at the end of the year and let one of the youngsters take over, or keep him or two years, offer him arbitration and get compensatory draft picks. If he does poorly, well, you lose money only. You can always replace money with higher ticket prices etc. You can't replace draft picks or traded talent so it is worth the risk.

Nov 17, 2012 07:10 AM

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rating: 1

John Carter

(22689)

Yeah, as a Tigers fan living in Toronto, I was shocked the Jays got the seemingly better player for a whopping $10,000,000.00 less over just two years. Mainly, though, I was shocked at how much Detroit put down for Torii.

The only justification for this is that Detroit expects Hunter to be one hell of a positive influence in the club house. They must figure he is on the Ichiro/Jeter/Ibanez/Julio Franco age defying fitness program. They must figure he's going to teach that program to Austin Jackson - and, perhaps, inspire Prince Fielder to get in better shape. And, they figure he's the missing ingredient that will keep the team winning right through the post season's last pitch!

Nov 18, 2012 18:12 PM

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rating: 0

bheikoop

(32208)

Do you think Rasmus has more trade value than Bonifacio and his position flexibility? After the Cabrera signing, I've got to think EEEEEMILLLIIIIOOOOOO is the one on his way out.

Nov 18, 2012 09:27 AM

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rating: 0

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Prospect Debate: Buxto... (11/16)

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