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November 15, 2012 Scouting the DraftCollege OutfieldersToday’s installment of Scouting the Draft looks at five collegiate outfielders with the chance to come off the board in the early rounds next June. As a reminder, the goal of this series is not to cover every name worth knowing for next June; we have plenty of time to bring you full reports on the top draft-eligible players for 2013 over the next seven months. This is meant to serve as an introduction to the draft class for those who have not yet begun to follow the action and to pool in one place a rundown of some of the top performances in the months leading up to the draft before we start parsing the class in more detail. Phil Ervin | OF | Samford University The Basics: 5-foot-10, 195-pounds; right/right profile; draft day age 20y 11m Brings to the table: The ability to produce consistent hard contact with a chance for average to above-average playable power at the next level. Ervin has a quick bat that, when paired with his simple load and trigger, allows him to let the ball travel, maximizing his ability to make contact at impact checkpoints in his bat path. Defensively, he has a chance to stick in center at the next level and has enough arm to hold down right field if he has to shift to a corner. There is little projection left in Ervin’s frame. Made a name for himself when: He hit his way through the Cape this summer, finishing with 11 home runs and a .323 average en route to earning the league’s Most Valuable Player award. He was fairly consistent throughout and endeared himself to evaluators by displaying a good feel for the game and a focused and efficient implementation of his tools between the lines. Figures to get attention: Throughout the spring and particularly against SEC opponents such as Mississippi State, Auburn, and Alabama. Ervin made a lot of money this summer with a breakout performance in the most talent-rich collegiate wood bat league in the country. A solid spring should land him in the top two rounds and, given the presence of organizations that heavily weigh wood bat performances, he may be a near lock to come off the board in the top 100 picks or so.
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Any concern over Austin Wilson's size? I had him in the 4.6/7 range down the line this summer. I think he can handle RF for a while, especially with his arm (although his release is slow), but a move to LF is coming sooner than most think.
I think he profiles very well in right field. Moves well in the outfield and very strong arm. I think his size probably presents greater hurdles at the plate, since the playability of his power tool hinges on his ability to make consistent contact.
Why do you say a move to left is in the cards?
I watched him a lot this summer, and I really like him. The raw is 70+. The arm is 70+. It's just the utility of both that I think we need to question. I completely agree with you, his size is giving him problems at the plate because there are holes in his swing and he has to improve his pitch recognition. His arm is so strong but it didn't seem natural to me. I didn't feel like he could rely on his ability to charge and come up firing. There was too much of a pause between fielding/throwing. That's something that's fixable though.
With regards to a move to left sooner rather than later, I don't see the quickness that's reported. His times to first in the multiple looks I had, were a lot slower than anticipated. From a "not a scout" perspective it seemed like he runs a little too much side to side and not enough straight line. Keeping all that in mind, I feel like his range left a lot to be desired.
Again, I really like Wilson, and I'd love to see him put up an enormous season this spring, but I'm just a little bit more skeptical than most.
From a general standpoint I'm not sure why range in left field would be substantively different than range in right field, outside of park-specific requirements at the MLB level and some quirky secondary defensive skills such as ability to finish on one side vs. the other.
I do think Wilson runs better in the field and better underway than he does out of the box (his home-to-second times confirm this, in my opinion).
I'll be seeing him opening weekend down in Houston, so I'll look forward to revisiting this when I have some first hand spring updates.
Awesome. Please fill us in on what you see.