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November 15, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects

by Jason Parks

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State of the Farm: “If you put your trust in me I'll make bright your day. Look into these eyes now, tell me what you see.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

  1. OF Byron Buxton
  2. 3B/RH/1B Miguel Sano
  3. OF Aaron Hicks
  4. OF Oswaldo Arcia
  5. RHP Kyle Gibson
  6. RF/2B Eddie Rosario
  7. RHP Jose Berrios
  8. OF Max Kepler
  9. 3B/1B Travis Harrison
  10. IF Jorge Polanco

1. Byron Buxton
Position: OF
DOB: 12/18/1993
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 188 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Appling County High School (Baxley, GA)
2012 Stats: .216/.324/.466 in rookie GCL (27 games); .286/.368/.429 at rookie-level Elizabethton (21 games)
The Tools: All of them; 8 run; 7+ arm; 6+ raw power; 6+ hit (potential)

What Happened in 2012: Drafted second overall and viewed by many as the top talent in the entire class, Buxton didn’t disappoint in small-sample professional viewing, flashing all the tools that helped secure him a $6 million signing bonus.

Strengths: Massive potential on both sides of the ball; elite run; uses speed well in game action; hit tool has plus projection (at least); impressive bat speed; strength in swing; big raw power that should at least achieve average utility; arm is a 7; overall defense package could be high-6/low 7; strong work ethic.

Weaknesses: Mixed opinion on future of hit/power tools; some only see average game utility at maturity; wide gap between present/future; limited professional sample; swing has some length; hasn’t faced enough quality velocity; approach is still immature.

Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star.

Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; massive toolshed with makeup, but has boom or bust potential because of wide gap between present and future hit/power tools.

Fantasy Future: One of the best players in the game if he reaches his potential; could hit for high average, show high-end secondary skills (SB, HR, OBP) while playing a premium position at a high level. He has MVP-level raw tools.

The Year Ahead: With high ceilings come high expectations, so Buxton will be expected to rise to the challenges of full-season ball and emerge as one of the premier prospects in the game. While its possible that he explodes in 2013 and becomes a top-10 player in the minors, it's more likely that the tools need a few seasons to develop their game function, and as a result, Buxton will flash his promise more often than sets fire to it. He will be facing the best pitching of his life, and if the swing isn’t ready for the spotlight, he could struggle at the plate. Just be patient. If he develops to his potential, it’s a game changer.

Major league ETA: 2016

2. Miguel Sano
Position: 3B/RF/1B
DOB: 05/11/1993
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 230 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2009, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: .258/.373/.521 at  Low-A Beloit (129 games)
The Tools: 8 raw; 7 arm

What Happened in 2012: The 19-year-old Dominican moved up to the full-season level after two short-season stints in rookie ball and crushed 60 extra-base hits in 129 Midwest League games, including 28 home runs.

Strengths: Godfather power; raw grade is an 8; current swing has all the necessary characteristics for game power (strength, loft, backspin); did we mention the power?; shows some secondary on-base ability; arm is well above-average; will play at hot corner or right corner; athletic for size (at present).

Weaknesses: Swing is long and leveraged; features big swing-and-miss; pitchers with a plan can beat him; questions about hit tool utility; might not be an average (5) hitter; defense at third base is fringe; stiff actions; big kid at present with the frame to hold more weight/bulk as he physically matures; might be one-tool dependent.

Overall Future Potential: High-6; first-division player with a few all-star seasons

Explanation of Risk: High risk; performed well in full-season ball as a teenager, but profile is game-power dependent, and deficiencies in the hit tool/approach could limit full utility of raw power.

Fantasy Future: Middle-of-the-order monster if everything clicks, with big over-the-fence numbers and big strikeout numbers, most likely from right field or first base.

The Year Ahead: Sano’s big swing-and-miss tendencies might survive the Florida State League, as he can still feast on the mistakes of the unrefined or inadequate arms at that level. But pitchers with a plan can beat his swing, either with stuff inside or soft and spinning outside, so the real test might not come until he reaches the Double-A level. We all know Sano has crazy raw power, but his prospect status will drink a Jolt cola if he learns to make more consistent contact without sacrificing too much of the power identity.

Major league ETA: 2015

3. Aaron Hicks
Position: OF
DOB: 10/02/1989
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2008 draft. Woodrow Wilson High School (Long Beach, CA)
2012 Stats: .286/.384/.460 at Double-A New Britain (129 games)
The Tools: 7 arm; 6 run; 6 raw power; 6 glove

What Happened in 2012: After a disappointing 2011 season at High-A Ft. Myers, Hicks responded with a bounceback year at a superior level, giving some of his doubters hope that the toolsy dream might feature a little reality.

Strengths: Owner of a high-end toolshed; arm is very strong; plays as true weapon in center field; above-average speed; above-average defensive profile at position; possess above-average raw power; above-average on-base ability; showing signs of refinement.

Weaknesses: Game still features the inconsistencies of a young player; hit tool receives fringe grades; bystander offensive approach often gives pitcher advantage; power potential is slow to play in games; swing can get long from the left-side, and he struggles to turn around quality velocity.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; Hicks is eventually going to play in the majors, either as a starter or as a bench outfielder. The tools aren’t fully mature, so there is still a gap between the present and the future; hit tool deficiency could limit ceiling.

Fantasy Future: If Hicks achieves his ceiling, he could provide 15-20 HR pop, 25-plus steals, good on-base ability, and above-average defense in center.

The Year Ahead: After a solid 2012 season at the Double-A level, Hicks is inching closer to the final level, but a stop in Triple-A would be beneficial to the 23-year-old. The evolution of his hit tool against quality pitching will ultimately determine his fate, and another step forward in 2013 could put him in a position to take hold of the major-league job as early as 2014. His approach has often been described as timid or passive, and despite the walks, Hicks needs to take advantage of opportunities when they are presented, and turn balls back with authority. He has a tendency to hit with a hose instead of a sledgehammer, despite owning legit power. He has a chance to be a first-division talent, but his secondary skills will provide value even in a reserve role.

Major league ETA: 2013

4. Oswaldo Arcia
Position: OF
DOB: 05/09/1991
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2007, Venezuela
2012 Stats: .309/.376/.517 at High-A Ft. Myers (55 games); .328/.398/.557 at Double-A New Britain (69 games)
The Tools: 6 hit; 6 raw

What Happened in 2012: Arcia really stepped up his offensive game, crushing in the Florida State League and then really crushing after a promotion to Double-A, hitting for both average and extra-base power.

Strengths: Good natural bat-to-ball ability; strong wrists; controls the bat very well; shows above-average bat speed; power plays to all fields; uses the gaps; projects for both plus hit and plus game power; feasts on fastballs, especially from right-handers; can square plus velo; arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field.

Weaknesses: Good athlete for his size, but lacks average run; limited to a corner spot; bat will play at position, but lacks high-end impact (lacks plus-plus offensive tools); raw power has yet to fully translate to game action; might play under raw projection, limiting ceiling.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; Arcia is a mature talent, possessing major-league quality offensive tools; some risk in reaching full potential, which is necessary to achieve 6 role projection at corner position.

Fantasy Future: Could be a prototypical corner bat, with .285-plus batting average and lots of doubles and 17-25 home runs. Speed will not be a factor in his offensive game.

The Year Ahead: Arcia is ready to push for a major-league job, but could start the year in Triple-A until the time is right for both parties. As a minor leaguer, he has proven capable on the offensive side of the ball, showing both a quality hit tool and power potential. In order to take that next step, Arcia needs to face high-level pitching in a high-level environment, and those conditions can’t be replicated in the minor leagues.

Major league ETA: 2013

5. Kyle Gibson
Position: RHP
DOB: 10/23/1987
Height/Weight: 6’6’’ 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2009 draft. University of Missouri (Columbia, MO)
2012 Stats: 2.45 ERA (14.2 IP, 9 H, 16 K 4 BB) at rookie GCL; 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB) at High-A Ft. Myers; 9.45 ERA (6.2 IP,  11 H, 10 K, 1BB) at Triple-A Rochester
The Tools: Solid-average to plus FB; 6 slider; 6 CH

What Happened in 2012: After losing time to Tommy John surgery, Gibson got his feet wet at three spots at the end of the season, before heading to the Arizona Fall League in preparation for a roster run to start 2013.

Strengths: Fastball will work from 88-94 and touching higher, often finding consistency in the 90-92 range; pitch shows good vertical movement/weight; has command of the offering; all pitches on good angle to plate; slider can be an above-average offering, thrown with good velocity and sharp tilt; changeup is second above-average sec; some fading action, but plays well off fastball arm speed; advanced pitchability to go along with a plus arsenal and a big, strong frame.

Weaknesses: Before injury, stuff had a tendency to play down; was hittable in the zone; struggled to put away hitters; fit into command/control box; sources have called the overall profile a “soft no. 2 starter,” or a “paper no. 2 starter, not a game no. 2”

Overall Future Potential: Low 6; no. 3 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; injury history to arm; performance recovery not guaranteed; would be low risk without injury on resume; solid bet to be quality major-league starter.

Fantasy Future: If healthy, should be able to log innings, achieve (at least) a league-average ERA, good command/control profile (BB/IP), doesn’t profile as high strikeout arm.

The Year Ahead: In a strong performance in the AFL, Gibson’s velocity was back to pre-injury range and his slider once again had a sharper break. Command is often the last thing to return to the field after Tommy John, but Gibson’s overall feel for throwing strikes seems to back already, and that puts him on track to compete for a big-league job this spring. Gibson has all the attributes of a no. 2 starter, but pitches under the mark, as the stuff is often more hittable than it would appear and the dominance factor is lacking. All the ingredients are present to emerge as an above-average major-league starter, and Twins fans won’t have to wait years before sampling the dish.

Major league ETA: 2013

6. Eddie Rosario
Position: 2B/OF
DOB: 09/28/1991
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 4th round, 2010 draft, Rafael Lopez Landron High School (Guayama, PR)
2012 Stats: .368/.400/.684 at rookie-level GCL (5 games); .296/.345/.490 at Low-A Beloit (95 games)
The Tools: 6 hit; 6 run; can show all tools

What Happened in 2012: Rosario’s full-season debut was a rousing success, as the bat continued to make hard contact, spraying 32 doubles in only 95 games.

Strengths: Plus athlete; sweet swing from the left side; can barrel balls to all fields; shows ability to hit velocity and off-speed stuff; bat has more punch than size suggests; hit tool projects to 6; above-average speed.

Weaknesses: More raw athlete than instinctual baseball player; defensive development at second was shaky; better profile in outfield, where speed can help minimize errors; despite pop, some scouts aren’t sold he will approach game power in the plus range; poor speed utility on the bases at present.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division regular

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; lacks high-end tools, but has enough athleticism and hit tool to reach highest level; questions about feel raise some questions about ultimate ceiling.

Fantasy Future: Whether or second or center, Rosario will need to hit; bat has the potential for high contact and batting average; some game pop (doubles/triples); should steal some bases; number two hitter profile.

The Year Ahead: Rosario will take his talents to High-A, where his brand of hearty contact will continue to play in game action. He needs to take steps forward on defense (wherever he plays) and on the bases, where his speed is plus but the utility is far from it. The bat isn’t special, but it has enough punch to profile at the highest level, and a little overall game refinement will go a long way to making sure that becomes a reality.

Major league ETA: 2014

7. Jose Berrios
Position: RHP
DOB: 05/27/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Papa Juan High School (Bayoman, PR)
2012 Stats: 1.08 ERA (16.2 IP, 7 H, 27K 3 BB) at rookie GCL; 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 8 H 22 K, 1 BB), at rookie Elizabethton
The Tools: Plus FB; plus potential CB/CH

What Happened in 2012: Berrios was selected in the first round; Berrios spent a total of 30 innings at two rookie-level spots; Berrios missed a lot of bats; Berrios made a lot of new fans; Berrios is legit.

Strengths: Lacks ideal height, but pitches athletic and strong; fastball has zip, working at 92-94; touching higher; arm is very fast; good movement to fastball; easy plus offering; flashes two quality secondary offerings; hard curveball with two-plane break and a low-80s changeup with good pronated action; easy delivery allows for control; feel for command; pitches with purpose.

Weaknesses: Limited arsenal/physical projection; needs to work low in the zone to create quality plane; breaking ball can get loose and slurvy; pace can get erratic; general refinement necessary across the board.

Overall Future Potential: Low 6; no. 3 starter

Explanation of Risk: High risk; 18-years-old; limited professional record; limited projection; present stuff has to carry load.

Fantasy Future: Has electric arm, and arsenal profile to miss bats; profiles as a starter, but could eventually end up in the bullpen in a late-inning capacity.

The Year Ahead: Berrios will start the year as an 18-year-old, so it remains to be seen if he is kept at the team complex after spring training before embarking on a full-season assignment. The arm works very well, and the delivery is both strong and athletic. Size will always be an issue for some, but the arsenal is deep for his age, and his overall feel for pitching has received positive reviews, so he should be able to develop as a starter. His prospect star is on the rise, and the limited professional record and subsequent risk are the only reason he isn’t higher on the list. The kid is legit.

Major league ETA: 2016

8. Max Kepler
Position: OF
DOB: 02/10/1993
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2009, Germany
2012 Stats: .297/.387/.539 at rookie Elizabethton (59 games)
The Tools: Average-to-plus offensive potential; plus athlete

What Happened in 2012: Kepler repeated the Appy league and took a big step forward, going from that toolsy European kid that received $800k to a legit top 10 talent in the system. 

Strengths: Plus athlete; great size; improving strength; looks the part; has good run for his size; plays with balance and coordination; good hit tool; makes quality contact; swing is fluid and repeatable; power potential in the swing; gamer who can make adjustments.

Weaknesses: Good instincts, but doesn’t have above-average profile in center; range is fringe; arm is fringe; swing can get long; some velocity concerns; profile problem if he can’t stick in center; bat would need several grade jumps for corner profile.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; wide gap between present and future of tools; big makeup is a positive; limited track record with European youth development

Fantasy Future: Profiles best in left field; bat falls short of the prototype, but could play if power shows up in games; hit tool should allow for some average; 15-plus home run pop; good doubles; stolen bases most likely not part of game at maturity.

The Year Ahead: Kepler will move to full-season ball and the biggest test of his career. He’s a very good athlete, and at times, can look like a very good baseball player. But his profile is a problem for some, as he isn’t an ideal fit for center field because of the limited range, and his bat has so many unknowns that it’s hard to accurately peg his offensive future for a corner. At the present, he is starting to look like an outfielder tweener, but the tool gap is wide and a lot of things can happen over the next few years. 2013 and the full-season experience will start to paint that picture.

Major league ETA: 2016

9. Travis Harrison
Position: 3B/1B
DOB: 10/17/1992
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, Tustin High School (Tustin, CA)
2012 Stats: .301/.383/.461 at rookie level Elizabethton (60 games)
The Tools: Plus potential hit/power

What Happened in 2012: Harrison started his professional journey with a 60-game clip in the Appy league, where the then-20-year-old showed the offensive potential that made him the 50th overall pick in the 2011 draft.

Strengths: Tons of raw power; batting practice prowess to draw crowds; bat speed is very strength-driven at present; projects to hit for at least plus game power; hit tool has some backers; makes hard contact to all fields; hands and hips work very well.

Weaknesses: Doesn’t profile at third base; fringe athlete; below-average run; swing can get hitchy and tied up against velocity; game is tied to power potential.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; bad defensive profile puts all the pressure on the bat; has yet to face full-season pitching

Fantasy Future: Profiles as a power-hitting first baseman, although more of a down-the-lineup bat rather than a middle-of-the-order monster; could hit for some average; game power could easily play 6+, with 25-plus homers annually.

The Year Ahead: Harrison can sting a ball, but full-season pitching will present a challenge, as the young hitter will face better sequencing and better secondary arsenals. He has obnoxious raw power, but he will need to bring that power into game action, and that will start with his hit tool and approach. Those who believe in the bat see both plus hit and plus power, giving Harrison a more optimistic profile than the one suggested here. If that proves to be the case, his prospect status will be on the rise in 2013.

Major league ETA: 2015

10. Jorge Polanco
Position: IF
DOB: 07/05/1993
Height/Weight: 5’11’’ 165 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2009, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: .318/.388/.514 at rookie level Elizabethton (51 games)
The Tools: Solid hit; solid run; solid glove; solid arm

What Happened in 2012: After two years of complex-league action and poor offensive results, Polanco erupted in 2012, posting an OPS over .900 in the Appy league.

Strengths: Versatile; athletic; receives solid-average marks on hit tool future, his glove, his run, and his arm; bat has some juice in it; line-drive stroke; uses the entire field; gamer mentality

Weaknesses: Lacks plus tool; doesn’t profile as plus defender on left-side of infield; contact heavy approach; limited power potential; slappy at times; needs more strength in swing.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; wide gap between present and future hit tool; doesn’t have ideal left-side profile; only a teenager; yet to play full-season ball.

Fantasy Future: Could do a little of everything, including some batting average, some extra base hits, some steals, but won’t hit for much power and won’t excel in any one category; better utility profile.

The Year Ahead: Polanco will make the jump to full-season ball, where the weaknesses in his offensive game could be exposed by the pitcher friendly environments of the Midwest league. Without much present strength, pitchers won’t hesitate to challenge him over the plate, putting all the pressure on his bat to step up and keep stinging the ball. The defensive profile is still unknown, as development on that side of the ball can take time and we have yet to see Polanco stick at any one position for an extended period of time. He can play all over the diamond, and that sort of versatility can find a home if the bat can pack a punch.

Major league ETA: 2016

Prospects on the Rise:

1.SS Niko Goodrum: Projectable shortstop with some power potential, 20-year-old Niko Goodrum is another name to keep an eye on from that impressive Elizabethton crop of talent. It remains to be seen if he grows off the position, but he has quality actions, and his arm is very, very strong. If the bat steps up, this is a prospect who could easily jump into the top 10 in this system.

2.RHP J.T. Chargois: Relievers don’t often make the best prospects, but guys who can throw in the mid-90s and flash plus-plus sliders are worth monitoring. Chargois, taken in the 2nd round last year from Rice, can really bring the funk from a max-effort delivery, and he profiles as a late-inning bat-misser who should move through the minors quickly.

3.OF Romy Jimenez: Because of injury, Jimenez had only eight games of stateside baseball under his belt heading into the 2012 season, but the 21-year-old Dominican got right to work, hitting .347/.439/.669 in 35 games of action at Elizabethton. With an easy swing and a natural feel for contact, Jimenez will be yet another quality prospect to watch as he moves up to the Midwest League.

Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013)

1.OF Joe Benson: A very disappointing 2012 season for Benson has crushed his once lofty prospect status, but the multi-tooled outfielder could still be in the mix for a major league opportunity at some point during the season. The bat failed him at all stops last year, but if he can regain his confidence and stay healthy, he has the baseball skills to contribute at the highest level.

2.RHP Michael Tonkin: After finishing the season in High-A, Tonkin is likely to start in the Double-A ‘pen, and could be wearing a Twins jersey at some point in the season. The 6’7’’ power arm can be nasty, throwing in the mid-90s and missing a high number of bats.

3.RHP B.J. Hermsen: A sixth-round pick in the 2008 draft, Hermsen has been slow and steady up the professional chain, and after a solid (but not spectacular) Double-A campaign in 2012, he is in a position to contribute to the major-league squad in 2013. Not armed with a plus arsenal, Hermsen gets by on location and changing speeds, keeping hitters off his fringe fastball by throwing his secondary pitches for strikes and sequencing. The margin of error is small, and the ceiling is limited, but he could probably hold his own at the back of major-league rotation until better options present themselves.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (born 4/1/87 or later)

1.  Byron Buxton
2.  Miguel Sano
3.  Aaron Hicks
4.  Oswaldo Arcia
5.  Kyle Gibson
6.  Ben Revere
7.  Eddie Rosario
8.  Jose Berrios
9.  Liam Hendriks
10. Max Kepler

The Twins finished the 2010 season with 94 wins and a second straight first-place finish in the AL Central, but the defending division champs were becoming an increasingly elderly team, with Delmon Young the only 25-man-rostered player qualifying for BP’s 25 and Under list. Two years, just 129 total wins, and two last-place finishes later, the organization still features a major-league roster with little in the way of contributing youth. Ben Revere has grown into a fine defensive outfielder who offers positive value on the bases but negative value in the batter’s box, profiling best as a second-division starter. Outside of Revere on the positional side, Chris Parmelee is the epitome of a replacement-level player, capable of providing some utility off the bench but likely exposed as a subpar producer if pressed into daily service. The outlook is similarly bleak on the mound, where only Liam Hendriks profiles as a potentially useful regular (most likely as an arm at the back-end of a rotation). Both Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson could carve out roster space as mop-up/middle guys in the pen. Though time still remains for each to develop, the struggles of back-to-back first-round disappointments Alex Wimmers and Levi Michael have helped to create a hole at the middle levels of the system, though there is some hope that the wave of talent at the lower-levels could help pull Minnesota out of its tailspin a few years down the line. —Nick Faleris

A Parting Thought: The Twins could have as many as six players in the BP 101, and at least two prospects that profile in the top 25. The system isn’t crazy deep, but the graduating class from the Appy league could provide prospect fruit for a long time.

Link to last year's Twins rankings

*Special thanks to Nick Faleris, Jason Churchill, Mark Anderson, Chris Mellen, and Hudson Belinsky for their input and influence on this list.

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

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