A few years back, Jay Jaffe introduced an MVP Predictor formula called JUMP on Baseball Prospectus. It was, if his descriptions of his spreadsheets are any indication, a spectacularly messy equation, befitting the complex and irregular methods voters use to choose their MVPs. As Jay wrote at the time,
A few years back, Rob Neyer and Bill James introduced a Cy Young Predictor formula in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, a formula made possible by the relatively smaller number of statistical inputs which go into consideration for that award, and one that produced a much higher level of accuracy (around 80 percent) than JUMP does. … JUMP underscores both the wider variety of inputs that can come into play in a single MVP vote and the fact that nearly any given year produces at least a few candidates with strong enough statistical resumes and team backgrounds for a voter to attach to a narrative which rationalizes their vote.
Which is to say: stories, not just statistical inputs, tend to guide MVP voters, and no two stories are ever the same. Even when stories resemble each other, they’re not quite the same.
Which is a way of saying that what I’m about to talk about is limited by all the known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
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I ran across a column saying everybody should vote for Braun because this season PROVES he wasn't on steroids last year because otherwise he would have gotten worse. I tend toward your read on it, though.
Had Braun's test remained confidential, as it should have, would he be the favorite to win the MVP? It seems that the voters who are overly sanctimonious about PED's are the ones that only look at traditional statistics when voting.
I think you might have missed the point here. This column is looking at his MVP credentials without regard to the PED story, and is concluding that he is not likely to be the MVP winner.
And it turned out that the answer was zero. This doesn't negate the research that went into the article, as the electorate changes yearly, but Braun was in the top four in each of the 32 ballots cast.
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Braun's seasons really does pose the question, what impact do PEDs really have.
I ran across a column saying everybody should vote for Braun because this season PROVES he wasn't on steroids last year because otherwise he would have gotten worse. I tend toward your read on it, though.