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November 12, 2012

Pebble Hunting

How Many MVP Votes Will Ryan Braun Lose?

by Sam Miller

A few years back, Jay Jaffe introduced an MVP Predictor formula called JUMP on Baseball Prospectus. It was, if his descriptions of his spreadsheets are any indication, a spectacularly messy equation, befitting the complex and irregular methods voters use to choose their MVPs. As Jay wrote at the time,

A few years back, Rob Neyer and Bill James introduced a Cy Young Predictor formula in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, a formula made possible by the relatively smaller number of statistical inputs which go into consideration for that award, and one that produced a much higher level of accuracy (around 80 percent) than JUMP does. …  JUMP underscores both the wider variety of inputs that can come into play in a single MVP vote and the fact that nearly any given year produces at least a few candidates with strong enough statistical resumes and team backgrounds for a voter to attach to a narrative which rationalizes their vote.

Which is to say: stories, not just statistical inputs, tend to guide MVP voters, and no two stories are ever the same. Even when stories resemble each other, they’re not quite the same.

Which is a way of saying that what I’m about to talk about is limited by all the known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Ryan Braun (bold denotes a league-leading mark):

• 2011: .332/.397/.597, .994 OPS, 109 runs, 111 RBIs, 33 HRs, 33 SBs, 5.8 WARP
• 2012: .319/.391/.595, .986 OPS, 108 runs, 112 RBIs, 41 HRs, 30 SBs, 6.1 WARP