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November 7, 2012 Prospects Will Break Your HeartChicago Cubs Top 10 Prospectsby Jason Parks
State of the Farm: The Top Ten Position: OF
BP Comment Quick Links ncarter1 (40258) shouldn't these Beatles lyrics have been saved for Toronto? The Jays have a pretty sizeable amount of youngsters on or near their big league club. In the Cubs' U-25 list, we might see four of them in Wrigley in 2013 (assuming Vizcaino returns well from TJ). This is a decent system, but the high-upside players are a long way away. Nov 07, 2012 06:21 AM Blue Jay Way would have been too easy to throw on the Blue Jays, que no? Nov 07, 2012 07:14 AM johnwood427 (43141) Professor, Well, I'm not the biggest fan of it either. But I think the readers of this site have a high standard, and I think the quality and consistency of Kevin's work is one of the reasons. Our goal is to offer thorough and thoughtful work, and despite the changes to the scenery and structure, those high standards will be met and readers of this site will appreciate that. Nov 07, 2012 07:48 AM timber (61526) Since his name is nowhere to be found, I feel compelled to bring it up before some Cubs fan does...Josh Vitters? Lost cause? Not a lost cause. I think he can eventually contribute to the major league team, either as a fringe starter or a bench bat. I'm just not sold he can hit enough at the major league level to be an impact guy, and his defensive value is limited. I've been a vocal fan in the past, and I still think his swing is very pretty. But I couldn't find many sources [read: any] that thought he would develop into a solid-average regular, much less hit his ceiling as a star. Nov 07, 2012 08:11 AM AndrewBokermann (67762) Jason, Hudson was tasked with the creation of the U-25 list, so I'll defer to him on the direct question. Personally, I like Castillo. Obviously, he's not a prospect anymore, but I thought his performance at the major league level was solid. Agree with you on the receiving skills; arm is quite strong; better bat in '12 than I expected. I don't think you are missing anything. Nov 07, 2012 09:08 AM I don't dislike Castillo, he's just not better than the rest of the crew in terms of talent, IMO. I like his defensive upside, but don't see him hitting enough over the long haul to put him in front of any of the rest of the kids on this list, even with each kid's risk of not reaching their ceiling. Nov 07, 2012 17:16 PM Jivas (649) How dare you suggest that Dan Vogelbach is built like an offensive lineman! krafty2117 (55406) 6 of the Top 10 are new to the system in the last year. Is that more of a testament to Theo/Jed/Jason's scouting emphasis or an indictment on the state of the system prior to their arrival? It does seem rare that a new regime would be able to fill a pipeline that quickly...unless that pipeline was desperately empty. Thanks for the great work as always. Both. Poor systems have nowhere to go but up. When you bring in high-ceiling talent (at high ceiling prices), the stock usually goes up. I think this system has Top 10 potential, especially if the arms take off. Guys like Maples have basically been forgotten, and with good reason. But a healthy Maples, along with guys like Underwood and Johnson, start to establish a core of arms that have serious ceilings. Put that together with a top-heavy offensive system and you have something legit. Nov 07, 2012 09:11 AM Behemoth (46675) What are your thoughts on Matt Szczur these days? Um. very mixed. I was high on Szczur out of the gate, and I maintained that support up until the end of 2012. Some of my scout friends finally held an intervention to convince me that the ultra-athletic outfielder wasn't nearly as good as I thought he was, and that I need to calm down on the love. I still think he will develop into a quality 4th/5th outfielder, which isn't anything to be ashamed of; quite the opposite, actually. But I originally saw a first-division type, with plus athleticism, good defense at a premium spot, and raw that he would eventually tap into. he might end up proving people wrong because he's a huge makeup guy, but I'm no longer sold that the bat is going to be worth much at the highest level. Nov 07, 2012 09:29 AM P.G. Morris (45810) Arismendy Alcantara. Discuss. Great name; bat played better than people thought; talked to several sources abut him; easily a top 20 prospect in the system; good speed; good range; good arm; not sure he sticks at SS, though, which is the kicker for me; still young, but might be a tweener infielder that is a better utility fit than a regular at any position. Nov 07, 2012 09:41 AM P.G. Morris (45810) Obrigado. I did not know about the positional concerns. That's why you're the prospect-talkin' guy, I suppose. wilymo (27432) i've seen that alberto cabrera is supposedly going to go back to starting games at iowa to start next year. curious if you think that has any chance of working, also curious about his current horoscope in general kasgard (7441) Brett Jackson --> Corey Patterson 3.0? (Felix Pie was 2.0) perhaps (5212) Patterson wasn't the kind of hitter who can take a walk, but I think Jackson should be. The approach is definitely better. It's just that the hit tool isn't really there, not like people wish it would be. vigilantebsball (69872) You mention Kyle Hendricks, where does he sit. Was he in consideration for top 10, or more of a throw in with the Dempster deal? Eddie (27257) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. Ok, here's where the star rating, or some other form of giving a total value to a player would be useful. They both would be 5-star players. What would that tell you? It would tell you that they are both 5-star players. It wouldn't give you anything beyond that. Nov 07, 2012 11:34 AM Also, I appreciate the feedback, but this is the final product. This isn't a test run or a rough draft. This is the construction we are going forward with. Feedback is very important, and I want to hear people's thoughts on the product. It's not that I don't value that. I do. A great deal, actually. But this is style and structure of the prospect rankings. We feel it provides a healthy amount of scouting data delivered in an accessible vehicle. We did away with the star ratings because I felt they didn't offer much. A perfect example is the Baez/Almora evals. Both would be 5-star guys. Then what? Nov 07, 2012 11:44 AM vigilantebsball (69872) Thanks for your careful consideration of how to display overall grades. I appreciate the time and effort put into that decision. wilymo (27432) "We only ask for that value to be shared with us, in some form. If you don't want to use stars (in order to make your own mark) then user numbers. Or letters. Or something." Peter7899 (48545) Curious to hear if you heard anything on Jose Arias secondary pitches? Any projection there? Wrigleyviller (883) Can you give me some sense of how the endless number of solid second base Cubs prospects shake out? In addition to Marco Hernandez, there's Logan Watkins, Ronald Torreyes, Gioskar Amaya, Stephen Bruno, and maybe I'm forgetting someone. They have a ton, but it's hard to get excited about 2B prospects unless they have really serious offensive potential. I like Hernandez the most, as I think he can play on the left side of the infield and he can really swing a good stick. His numbers are a little misleading. He was in a league that was very RHP heavy, so he ended up batting LH more than expected. It really influenced his stroke against LHP, as he was completely lost from the right-side even though he's a natural righty. This is the kind of stuff that gets lost in the lower-levels of development. This kid can really hit. When he finds the stroke from both sides, watch out. He can handle SS as well. He's a legit prospect. Nov 07, 2012 12:42 PM jmoultz (440) Excellent work on the new format, gentlemen. Any thoughts on Frandy de la Rosa or is it just too son to have any kind of handle on his ceiling/eventual defensive home? jmoultz (440) One more: Robert Whitenack. He came on very strong in 2011 before TJ surgery and predictably struggled after returning this year, but I recall a late season report that suggested the velo was back and command/control were also returning. Do you cats have anything to back that up and can we hope for Mr. Whitenack to provide some low-ceiling rotational depth in 2013/14? Matt Commins (63058) My question is about Brett Jackson and how players who played in the majors, such as Jackson are eligible to be on the list. When is a player no longer eligible to be on the prospect list? Is there a games played threshold? pflfisters (69953) Jason...Love the format (portion size) of providing info without the fluff. Whats you thoughts/ceiling on Starling Peralta? Though he did "OK" in Peoria this past season, I was somewhat disappointed it wasn't better in the fact he got a taste of Lo-A in 2011. He showed some improvement, but he was repeating a pitcher-friendly league, and he wasn't exactly a new arm; Peralta debuted in 2008 and has logged over 300 professional innings without eclipsing Low-A. That's pretty impressive, actually. He needs to take a big step forward in '13 to stay on the radar. Nov 07, 2012 18:52 PM Behemoth (46675) I was just thinking about Vizcaino, and that you have him as being extremely risky due to the injury. Is that really merited, given that most people recover well from Tommy John these days? I know you get some like Liriano who never get the command back, but the success rate is pretty high and recurrence, at least in the short term is kind of unlikely. Am I missing something here, as otherwise he'd seem relatively low risk for a pitcher - having success in the higher minors and doing OK at MLB? Benjamin Harris (44774) Jason, can you envision a scenario in which you'd give a player an OFP of 8 without him having any MLB experience? What exactly would an 8 player be, potential Hall of Famer? Pinning that to a prospect who has yet to face elite talent seems like it might be a bit of a leap to take. Would you have put an 8 on Mike Trout before last season? How often do you give an OFP of 8 to a player? Behemoth (46675) Actually, one more question. The write-up on Almora suggests that he could have plus hit/power, but also that he might be a 10-15 HR guy. I thought 10-15 bombs was about 4 power. Am I missing something here? onegameref (7693) Is it outrageous that Vogelbach could trim down to 220 or 225? Why wouldn't the Cubs get him a nutritionist or Weight Watchers and exercise to get in shape? Kevin Love reinvented himself and is not cut. Why not the big boy? It's not always as simple as eating right or wanting to lose weight. It might be a genetic issue. But Vogelbach has dropped weight since HS. He's in the ~250 range rather than the 275+ range, so progress is being made. Unlike Love, Vogelbach isn't much of an athlete. You can chisel down some of the fat, but you aren't going to create a natural athlete with the remains. He's a big boy with big boy power. If he hits to his potential, the Cubs will either find a place for him to play or use him a trade chip. He will have value. Nov 10, 2012 09:08 AM onegameref (7693) I agree. It just seems like most analysis of baseball guys limits their potential for reshaping their bodies. I guess more often than not the scouts will see the potential for developing strength and size with maturity but not for carving out a more athletic figure. Who knows, there may be a deft athlete underneath the facade. I think the value will be there too.
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75 comments have been left for this article.
How far do the 3-stars go?