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October 24, 2012

Painting the Black

Opposite Day

by R.J. Anderson

Game One of the World Series features a lopsided pitching matchup. Justin Verlander is a superior pitcher to Barry Zito by every measure imaginable. So how do you sell this as an intriguing matchup? The FOX broadcast will probably focus on what Verlander and Zito have in common—the Cy Young. Zito won the award in 2002, his second full season in the majors, and Verlander took his home last winter.

But it’s not what Verlander and Zito have in common that could make this entertaining; rather, it’s what separates them.

Arsenal balance
Baseball commentary deals in clichés and generalities a lot. Pitting Verlander against Zito invites all sorts of cookie-cutter labels. Bet your bottom dollar, if Zito outclasses Verlander in Game One, that someone somewhere will write a piece about the guileful southpaw who outwitted the hard-throwing nutcase. Some generalities about this matchup are correct, like the assumption that Zito must mix and match while Verlander can ride his fastball if he chooses.

Zito threw none of his five pitches more than 31 percent of the time, according to Brooks Baseball. He threw each of his pitches at least 11 percent of the time, with three pitches—his four-seam fastball, sinker, and curveball—all within a small range of percentages. Verlander is more top-heavy. He threw his fastball 57 percent of the time, with 26 percent breaking balls, and another 17 percent changeups. You don’t need the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to figure out which pitcher has the more balanced approach.  

Curveball usage
Keep clicking around Brooks Baseball and you’ll notice Zito and Verlander throw a similar amount of curveballs. The two pitches share little in common beyond the classification. Zito throws a slow, low-70s, looping deuce while Verlander tosses a low-80s power breaker. The physical differences are evident from watching the two men pitch. What might not be as obvious is the difference in application. Zito treats his curveball as a utility pitch, using it whenever he feels it necessary. Verlander’s curve is deployed as a knockout offering.

The image below attempts to convey the differences. I took note, during each of the players’ postseason starts, of how long it took each pitcher to throw his first first-pitch curve of the game. The number inside the circle is the pitch count; Zito is represented by the orange circles: