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October 24, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Monsters, or Men Wearing Masks?

by Jason Parks

The AFL is viewed as a prospect-heavy league, a place where the stars of tomorrow take their next steps towards the major leagues. But not all players on the AFL rosters are prospects, and not all prospects feature the same promise, so buyer beware if you choose to toss all participants into the same prospect basket. With a dearth of quality arms placed in an environment that can supersize even average bats, the end result can turn the mediocre into monsters. The league is still young, but several hot starts have prompted inquiries as to whether the monsters are real, or just men wearing the masks of opportunity. Let’s ask the question and then deliver some answers.

Mike O’Neill, OF, Cardinals (Double-A Springfield/Surprise Saguaros)
“What can you tell me about Mike O’Neill? Another big talent in the Cardinals’ system?” Not a big talent, but the hit tool and the approach at the plate are legit. O’Neill has a bad profile, as the 24-year-old is a left fielder without an ounce of power; in ~850 career minor league at-bats, the diminutive lefty has one home run. But the former 31st round selection out of USC has serious bat-to-ball ability, and his mature and discerning approach has produced twice as many walks as strikeouts so far in his three minor league seasons. Without much defensive value and limited pop in the stick, O’Neill isn’t a serious prospect. But with a hit tool and well above-average on-base skills, he’s the type of player that eventually sneaks onto a roster and sticks around longer than expected.

Josh Prince, OF, Brewers (Double-A Huntsville/Phoenix Desert Dogs)
“Josh Prince is hitting over .400 in the AFL. Is the bat legit?”  The sample size is small and the environment is friendly, but Prince has been swinging a good bat so far in the AFL; one scout referred to his offensive approach as a “guy who makes you make the pitch. He doesn’t have the best hit tool, but he battles like every at-bat could decide the game. I’m not sure he realizes he has offensive limitations.” Who doesn’t love a Cajun gamer? With defensive versatility—originally a shortstop, the 24-year-old moved to center in 2012 and has been playing multiple infield spots in the AFL—Prince has th