October 18, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

NLCS Game Four Preview: Giants at Cardinals

by Daniel Rathman

The Cardinals lost their best postseason hitter to a knee injury early in Game Three, but still came out on top, because his replacement socked a game-winning two-run homer in his first trip to the plate. Now, the Giants must win to avoid facing three consecutive elimination games for the second straight series. Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Four:

Giants (Tim Lincecum) vs. Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) – 8:00 p.m. ET

PECOTA Odds of Winning: Cardinals 51.5 percent, Giants 48.5 percent

Projected Starting Lineups:

Giants vs. Wainwright (R)

Cardinals vs. Lincecum (R)

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. 3 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct rweiler (21660) According to sfgate Beltran is out today due to injury and Belt is on the bench. I agree with PECOTA that that's a step down, but Sanchez never has to worry about getting in Bochy's dog house because he stuck out looking on a ball out of the strike zone. Pence gets moved down a slot to 6th, Posey up a slot to 3rd. Oct 18, 2012 15:36 PM link rating: 0   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) Thanks for the update — I'm going to re-run the sim based on the actual lineups momentarily. Oct 18, 2012 16:17 PM link   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) The win probabilities are now updated, reflecting the actual lineups. Oct 18, 2012 16:27 PM link   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Punk Hits: Three Night... (10/18) << Previous Column Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/17) Next Column >> Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/18) Next Article >> Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/18) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Scouting the Draft: Corner Outfielders to Kn... Daily Hit List: Tuesday, May 21 Punk Hits: Eyes on the Prize Baseball ProGUESTus: Dollar Sign on the Glis... Skewed Left: The Shift's PR Problem What You Need to Know: Corb Your Enthusiasm Overthinking It: The Pitches No Zone Can Con... MORE FROM OCTOBER 18, 2012 On the Beat: Making the Tigers Roar Overthinking It: Baseball's Most Immovable P... Scouting the Draft The Lineup Card: Seven Moves that Helped LCS... Prospect Profile: Avisail Garcia In A Pickle: Seemed Like a Good Idea at the ... Collateral Damage Daily: Thursday, October 1... MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN 2012-10-22 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Seven Preview:... 2012-10-21 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Six Preview: C... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-18 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-17 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-16 - Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-15 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Two Preview: C... More... MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game 4 Recap: Cardi... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-18 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game 3 Recap: Cardi... 2012-10-18 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-17 - Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Three Recap: T... 2012-10-17 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-17 - Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Four Preview: ... More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!