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October 14, 2012 Playoff ProspectusALCS Game Two Preview: Tigers at YankeesAfter a spirited ninth-inning rally, the Yankees lost Game One—and Derek Jeter, who fractured his ankle and will miss the rest of the postseason—in the 12th inning. Can Joe Girardi’s team bounce back and prevent the Tigers from racing out to a 2-0 lead? To answer that question, here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Two. Tigers (Anibal Sanchez) vs. Yankees (Hiroki Kuroda) – 4:00 p.m. ET PECOTA Odds of Winning: Yankees 57.4 percent, Tigers 42.6 percent Odds with Derek Jeter: Yankees 58.5 percent, Tigers 41.5 percent Projected Starting Lineups: |
I read (on MLB.com) that Jayson Nix is to start at short though Nunez takes Jeter's roster spot.
In 2012 Nix hit his 50th Pecota percentile in on base, but only 35th in slugging. His triple slash vs. lhp was .245/.308/.398, and vs. rhp it was .228/.291/.354.
Nunez hit his 60th percentile in on base and 50th in slugging, with triple slashes of .360/.400/.460 and .205/.244/.308
Nix has the offensive edge vs. righties, but I would think Nunez is better defensively. If Nunez is Nixed, how would that shift the odds?
Not at all, actually. PECOTA thinks the Yankees' odds would be exactly the same with Nunez in Game Two as they would be with Nix. You're right, though--Nix gets this game.
Thanks for the speedy response on a Sunday!