CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/11)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/11)
Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (10/12)

October 11, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

ALDS Game Five Preview: Tigers at A's

by Daniel Rathman

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Oakland went cuckoo for Coco Crisp on Wednesday night after the center fielder’s walk-off single capped a thrilling three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. Oakland’s reward? A date with the Tigers’ ace. Who will go home, and who will advance? Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Five:

Tigers (Justin Verlander) vs. Athletics (Jarrod Parker) – 9:30 p.m. ET
PECOTA Odds of Winning: Tigers 58.2 percent, Athletics 41.8 percent

Projected Starting Lineups:

Tigers vs. Parker (R)

Athletics vs. Verlander (R)

Austin Jackson, CF (R)

Coco Crisp, CF (S)

Quintin Berry, LF (L)

Stephen Drew, SS (L)

Miguel Cabrera, 3B (R)

Yoenis Cespedes, LF (R)

Prince Fielder, 1B (L)

Seth Smith, DH (L)

Delmon Young, DH (R)

Josh Reddick, RF (L)

Andy Dirks, RF (L)

Josh Donaldson, 3B (R)

Jhonny Peralta, SS (R)

Brandon Moss, 1B (L)

Alex Avila, C (L)

Derek Norris, C (R)

Omar Infante, 2B (R)

Cliff Pennington, 2B (S)

PECOTA loves it some Verlander—but can you blame it? The 2011 American League MVP allowed only three hits and whiffed 11 Oakland batters in Game One, and the model expects this Division Series to end precisely how it started: with Verlander doing what he does best.

Here is the 29-year-old righty’s pitch breakdown from the opener:

The most telling line in that table is for the four-seam fastball: Oakland hitters saw 61 of them from Verlander, flailed helplessly 11 times, and only put four in play. If that rate does not tick down tonight, the A’s won’t be any more successful at scoring runs than they were on Saturday, even if Verlander once again doles out four walks.

Crisp has figured prominently in every game during this series—kicking things off with a homer in Game One, costing the A’s dearly with a defensive blunder in Game Two, robbing Fielder of a big fly in Game Three, and then delivering the winning hit last night—so he gets the nod in the Match-up of the Game. He and Verlander have now locked horns 27 times, and Crisp has more than held his own, going 9-for-26 (.346 average) with two doubles in addition to the long-ball on Saturday.

After serving up the home run on the fourth pitch of the game, a 96-mph fastball, Verlander served Crisp a steady diet of soft stuff in Game One. Of the 11 pitches Crisp saw in his three ensuing plate appearances, eight were non-fastballs—five changeups and three curveballs—including each of the last four. It will be interesting to see how Verlander maintains that approach to begin the bottom of the first tonight.

Parker pitched well at Comerica Park in Game One but was done in partly by his own fielding error on a dribbler by Berry. He compiled a 2.61 ERA over 100 innings at the Coliseum this year and allowed only five home runs at home all season.   Take a look at his pitch breakdown from the series opener.

Parker was essentially a two-pitch pitcher in Game One, using 64 total fastballs and 24 changeups—a strategy in line with his regular-season mix. The 23-year-old has shown only a modest platoon split in 2012, giving up a 616 OPS to lefties and a 584 mark to righties, using his changeup and living in the outside third of the zone to contain opposite-handed batters, as he did on Saturday. A grudge match with Verlander for all the marbles is an unenviable task, but there’s no one the A’s would rather have toeing the rubber tonight.

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here

2 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/11)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/11)
Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (10/12)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: More Top 50 Talk
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 20, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Place Their Be...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani ...
Fantasy Article They Hold No Quarter: Second Basemen
The Lineup Card: Sevin Epitaphs for Bud Seli...
Moonshot: The Analytic Value of the Crack of...

MORE FROM OCTOBER 11, 2012
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 4 Preview: Car...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ...
On the Beat: Managing the Golden Oldies
Premium Article In A Pickle: The Raul Ibanez Special
Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Pred...
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Is Joe Saunders a Double P...
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Thursday, October 1...

MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN
2012-10-13 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game One Preview: Y...
2012-10-12 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ...
2012-10-12 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 4 Preview: Car...
More...

MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS
2012-10-12 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Recap: Tigers Defea...
2012-10-12 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Sofa Scouting: Reds vs. ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Recap: Y...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Four Recap: Na...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: ...
2012-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Recap: At...
More...