October 10, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

NLDS Game Four Preview: Giants at Reds

by Daniel Rathman

The Giants had just one hit in seven innings off of Reds starter Homer Bailey but hung around thanks to an admirable outing from Ryan Vogelsong and stellar work from their bullpen. Then, a spate of defensive miscues in the top of the 10th handed San Francisco a decisive 2-1 lead, enabling Bruce Bochy’s team to stave off elimination for at least one more day. Will the Giants survive Game Four? Here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for this afternoon’s contest:

Giants (Barry Zito) vs. Reds (Mat Latos or Mike Leake) – 4:00 p.m. ET

PECOTA Odds of Winning:

• If Reds start Latos: Reds 57.5 percent, Giants 42.5 percent
• If Reds start Leake: Giants 51.7 percent, Reds 48.3 percent

Projected Starting Lineups:

Giants vs. Latos/Leake (R)

Reds vs. Zito (L)

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. Related Content:  Playoffs,  Giants,  Reds 6 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct BillJohnson (2635) Do those odds take into account the fact that if Latos starts, it'll be the first time in his major-league career that he has done so on three days' rest? Oct 10, 2012 08:27 AM link rating: 0   Ben Lindbergh BP staff (37618) No. Hard to say what the effect of that would be. Oct 10, 2012 08:29 AM link   RedsManRick (23592) One thing I've seen overlooked in some discussions is Mike Leake's bat. It sounds odd to discuss, but at least in the 195 PA he's had thus far, he's been a substantially better hitter than the typical pitcher, helping to offset some of the disadvantage on the mound. Oct 10, 2012 08:39 AM link rating: 0   greenengineer (2923) They only need to win one of two. Why start Latos on short rest? Oct 10, 2012 11:09 AM link rating: 0   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) I think the logic would have been to go for the kill, knowing that the Giants are starting Zito and have Cain waiting in the wings for Game Five. But, as you're suggesting, burning Latos in Game Four would certainly have been a gamble, too. Oct 10, 2012 12:15 PM link   momansf (32045) because he'd have to go up against Cain instead of Zito. Oct 10, 2012 12:22 PM link rating: 0   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/10) << Previous Column Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/10) Next Column >> Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/10) Next Article >> Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/10) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS What You Need to Know: Yu Better Watch Out Baseball ProGUESTus: The Yankees' Post-River... Pebble Hunting: Blind BABIP Test, Part 2 Baseball Therapy: Is There a Pinch-Fielding ... The Call-Up: Wil Myers The Call-Up: Zack Wheeler Overthinking It: The Most Surprising Team Pe... MORE FROM OCTOBER 10, 2012 Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Preview:... Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: ... Sobsequy: The Shot Before the Shot The Lineup Card: Eight Playoff Heroes and Go... Scouting the Draft: High School Outfielders Punk Hits: A Cespedes for the Rest of Us Collateral Damage Daily: Wednesday, October ... MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 4 Preview: Car... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-09 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-09 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-08 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Preview: Y... More... MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Three Recap: G... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Recap: A... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Preview:... 2012-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-09 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Two Recap: Ori... More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!