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October 9, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

ALDS Game Two Recap: Orioles 3, Yankees 2

by Ben Lindbergh


If the Yankees’ win on Sunday was a statement, it wasn’t one that made much of an impression on the Orioles. A day after seeing their closer savaged by the Yankees’ bats, the Orioles responded with a patented One-Run Win™—their 30th of the season—to even the series. Wei-Yin Chen wasn’t dominant, but he was adept at avoiding the big blow. Andy Pettitte crafty leftied and veteran moxied his way through seven innings despite not having his best breaking stuff or command, but the O’s timed their hits a bit better and had a couple more balls bounce their way. That was enough for a lead, which—this time—Baltimore’s bullpen preserved. Jim Johnson, who appeared to have a much better feel for his sinker, redeemed himself for Sunday’s sloppy effort with a perfect ninth.

The Orioles can’t be upset about splitting their home games, though the task ahead of them—winning two out of three on the road, with Hiroki Kuroda on Wednesday and a Game Five Sabathia start looming—will be even harder. Still, if Game One showed that the Orioles’ formula for regular-season success isn’t foolproof, Game Two demonstrated that they’re not out of their depth. As Colin Wyers joked on Twitter, the Orioles’ Pythagorean Record for the ALDS is .264. Is anyone surprised that they’re outperforming it again?

On to the bullet points:

  • Someone could write a doctoral thesis on Wei-Yin Chen’s four-seam fastball. Seemingly to a man, every hitter who faces him says his fastball looks two-to-four miles per hour faster than its radar reading. Maybe it’s his high arm angle or deceptively low-effort delivery. Maybe he releases the pitch particularly close to home plate (like David Robertson does). Maybe it’s the contrast between his four-seamer and changeup. Whatever the explanation is, many other pitchers with average velocity could benefit from the same ability.

    Here's one more workable hypothesis: the effectiveness of Chen's four-seamer could have something to do with how high he throws it. High four-seamers tend to get hit for homers—which has been a problem for Chen—but they also induce more whiffs. And here's Chen’s most frequently used two-pitch sequence this season: one high four-seamer followed by a second high four-seamer.  

    Those red and brown boxes on the right—each of which represents a block of 100 at-bats—indicate that he’s gone back to that sequence more and more often as the season has progressed. Chen can’t succeed when he relies solely on his fastball—as Daniel Rathman pointed out yesterday, the Yankees hit him hard on September 7th, when four out of every five pitches he threw were four-seamers. Last night, 63 percent of his offerings were fastballs, which was just enough to avoid falling behind hitters and not so many that he became completely predictable.