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September 23, 2012

Wezen-Ball

The Race for the AL Batting Crown

by Larry Granillo

The National League batting title is a bit controversial this year. And we all know that the Triple Crown isn't a big deal because it celebrates batting average and runs batted in. Okay, that's fine.

But, you know, some things are worth rooting for just because they're fun. After all, it's the Triple Crown!

According to Dave Pinto's Triple Crown Watch at Baseball Musings, Miguel Cabrera has an outstanding 56% chance of winning the title. Currently, Cabrera has an 8 RBI lead (131 to 123) over the nearest American League competitor. As of Saturday, he is now tied with Josh Hamilton for the lead in home runs. However, the Rangers have one fewer game to play in the season and Hamilton hasn't played in five games. That gives the Detroit third baseman a pretty great chance of maintaining that spot atop the leaderboard.

It's the batting title that's the most fickle part of the Crown. Heading into Sunday morning, Cabrera holds a .332 to .325 lead over Mike Trout. Obviously, if they both continue to hit at those clips, the title will stay with Cabrera. But, over a ten or twelve game stretch, almost anything can happen. Considering the Tigers have 12 games more to play (including a doubleheader today) and the Angels have only 10, and assuming four at-bats per game for each player, here's a look at what each player has to do in order to end the season on top.

For Cabrera to win...

If Trout hits... His AVG will be... Cabrera must hit... To win with
an AVG of...
.200 (8-for-40) .3161 6-for-48 .3163
.250 (10-for-40) .3196 9-for-48 .3211
.300 (12-for-40) .3232 11-for-48 .3243
.325 (13-for-40) .3250 12-for-48 .3259
.500 (20-for-40) .3375 20-for-48 .3387

And for Trout to win...

If Cabrera hits... His AVG will be... Trout must hit... To win with
an AVG of...
<.200 (9-for-48) .3211 11-for-40 .3214
.250 (12-for-48) .3259 14-for-40 .3268
~.300 (14-for-48) .3291 16-for-40 .3304
.333 (16-for-48) .3323 18-for-40 .3339
.500 (24-for-48) .3450 25-for-40 .3464

We'll check back later in the week if the race remains close.

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Manufactured Runs: The... (09/21)
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Wezen-Ball: Cliff Mape... (09/26)
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