Tell me more of this BP idol.

I detect in this article the beginnings of a shift away from BP's long-standing antipathy toward RBIs as a stat, and in my opinion, that shift is long overdue. RBIs have long been dismissed condescendingly here with the observation that driving in runs isn't a skill. Maybe it isn't; for the majority of players, clearly it isn't. However, it is still a good thing to do, and big RBI totals may serve as a marker that the player amassing them needs to be looked at more carefully. Usually that careful look will find that the totals are either a statistical outlier or the result of an unusually large number of opportunities. Sometimes it doesn't, though.

The problem with out-and-out dismissal of RBIs as significant is that it deters the deeper looks at the exceptional cases, like what you're doing here. There's a lesson to be learned from this. Thanks for swimming against the tide.

Great article. Your explanation of the situational use of shifts against a left handed hitter makes sense of something I never really understood before.

Obviously I don't have the sample sizes for the batting average splits you cite but Ryan Howard only has about 4666 career plate appearances. Once you break that out into a 2 or 3 way split the standard error for a difference between the split batting averages might be 20 points or more. Howard is one player out of thousands and his "skill" probably isn't even two standard errors from no skill at all. Statistically, this isn't even enough of an outlier to bother taking notice. Still, a great article well worth the read.

Fairly new BP reader,so forgive me if this question is laughable. Is any work being done with RBI efficiency? It seems to me that RBI / RISP chances would at the start be a lot better than RBI as a counting number. This could be improved further by adding the weighted outcomes of all the different out and baserunner opportunities that exist. This would factor out a lot of the reasons that make RBI (almost) worthless. However, you still have the variables of baserunner skill and speed just to mention a couple. I am sure something is wrong with my line of think, but it just struck me as interesting.

As a Phillies fan I have been in countless discussions over the value of Ryan Howard. No matter his other stats he generates runs.

To further support the shift data I suggest you look closer at his first two years before the shift became the standard defense. First year. 288 and second year. 313. Then came the shift.

Another couple of guys who face a pretty strong shift:

Curtis Granderson (2012): .291 BABIP with runners on, .246 with bases empty.

David Ortiz (2012): .337 with runners on, .303 with bases empty.

I know there is an element of "pitcher distress" here - a pitcher who already put someone on base is probably more likely to do it again - but it seems like the shift works, and these guys thrive when the opposing team can't do it.

I don't know how this can be quantified, but IF or WHEN he hits the ball with men on base, he always seems to hit it very hard. Sometimes they end up being DP's, but he seems to hit very few weak grounders or popups. He either hits it hard or whiffs. I'm a Phillies fan, and the strikeouts drive me crazy, but he has always put up huge RBI numbers. Another strange thing BP could look at some time: he has unusually good career numbers when pinch-hitting.

My conclusion from all this is that Howard needs to learn to hit the other way when there's a shift on if he wants to continue his career.

Don't most players hit better with runners on base because the pitcher is less comfortably pitching out of the stretch? You never went into how Howard compares to the league. As a cleanup hitter, Howard comes up in more situations with runners on base, especially in scoring position, and thus has a greater chance to turn his at bats into RBIs. Either way, you did the best you could trying to turn a poor hitter into something slightly better. On the other hand his lowest career wRC+ other than this season was 120. He creates runs, but not as many as he should.

I'm curious to know if there is a significant difference in BABIP between lefties and righties. Especially slow ones.

CLUTCH!!!

Ryan Howard is clutch because the Mets are never allowed to win a game at home after July 5th.

I sometimes get the impression that we denigrate the RBI stat overmuch. Perhaps, as we focus so much on stats that foretell future stats, we ignore (at our peril) stats that narrativize the game as it is played?