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September 18, 2012

Painting the Black

Vogelsong (Remix)

by R.J. Anderson

Analysis, like comedy, is about timing. I wrote a flattering profile on Ryan Vogelsong’s pitching, in mid-August, praising his command, feel, and confidence. The key statistic was Vogelsong’s 22 consecutive starts without an outing shorter than six innings.

On the night of the piece’s publication, Vogelsong allowed eight runs and failed to complete the third inning, ending his streak. The bad outing appeared to be a hiccup in an otherwise tranquil season, but the problem is that hiccups often come in spurts. Vogelsong took the mound a few days later. He threw 96 pitches over three innings before his removal. One quality start later, Vogelsong appeared to be back on track. Except he then went and allowed three home runs. Over his three most recent starts, including Sunday, Vogelsong has allowed 17 runs in 11 2/3 innings. Hiccup.

You learn more from being wrong than right. And so, I took to Vogelsong’s most recent outing to see where I had erred, to see if my opinion on Vogelsong would change, to see if the pitcher I praised still existed (in some quantity or another), and to see if I could figure out his ailments. Before getting to all of that, here is an inning-by-inning summary of important events and/or sequencing that caught my eye during the game. 

The first inning
Vogelsong started the game, against the pint-sized Adam Eaton, in his typical manner. He threw a pair of fastballs on the inside paint, working to a 1-1 count. Then came a changeup away (fouled off), a curveball away (fouled off), a curveball inside (fouled off), and another changeup away. Though the pitch moved off the plate, Eaton took it to center field for a hit. Vogelsong would work through the leadoff single with a strike’em out, throw ‘em out double play. With two outs and the bases empty, Vogelsong coaxed Justin Upton into a harmless flyball, on a 3-0 count, to end the inning. 

The second inning
A seven-pitch walk to Miguel Montero put Vogelsong on the ropes to start the inning again. He strikes out the next three batters on 13 pitches. A nice sequence against Ryan Wheeler sees Vogelsong locate a fastball down and in, another down and away, another up and inside (fouled off), and a cutter up and away for strike three. 

The third inning
After retiring the first two batters effortlessly, Vogelsong locks horns with Eaton again. Eight pitches, a questionable call or two, and a frustrated reaction later, Vogelsong has issued a free pass. His immediate bounce back is fine; he gets to 0-2 on Aaron Hill. But the second baseman takes advantage of a fastball that leaks over the plate, and hits it through the infield for a single. Vogelsong falls behind Upton, and this time isn’t fortunate enough to escape. He throws a cutter on a 1-0 count that Upton barrels up and hits off the top of the center field wall. Two runs score, and the Diamondbacks claim the lead.