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September 10, 2012 BizballThe Strasburg Shutdown and How It All Could Have Been Avoidedby Maury Brown The countdown had been coming for months. It was just a matter of what would happen when it ended. We’re of course talking about the Washington Nationals’ declaration that they would shut down starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg at 160 innings pitched, something that the club had said they would be doing after the no. 1 draft pick and Scott Boras client had Tommy John surgery in 2010 to replace the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. We counted. We watched. We never made it that far. Saturday, the Nats pulled the plug. His projected last game Wednesday at Citi Field against the Mets? Not happening. His last game of 2012 against the Marlins on Friday at National Park is not exactly the way you want to be remembered. Tying his season low for innings pitched in a game, he went just three frames, allowing two runs in the first inning, one run in the second, and two more in the third. That was enough, and Davey Johnson pulled the plug. So, one of the most closely watched marches to an arbitrary number in recent history will be speculated ad nauseum for the remainder of the season, possibly through the offseason and into next year. After all, the Nationals have painted themselves into a corner by making nothing less than a World Series championship the only way that the topic goes away. Davey Johnson tried to frame the decision as a way to remove distraction and tried to shoehorn in that physical signs were beginning to show. "I just told Stephen that his year is over. He's had a great year. I know what he's growing through," Johnson said. "The media hype on this thing has been unbelievable. I feel it's as hard for him as it would be anybody to get mentally, totally committed in the ballgame. And he's reached his innings limit. So we can get past this and talk about other things for a change.”
BP Comment Quick Links Richard Bergstrom (36532) To rehash what's been said on other Strasburg articles, the same thing was done with Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg isn't even the best pitcher on the Nationals. If he was in the playoffs, there's a chance he'll overthrow and/or be forced to throw on short rest, further risking injury. The Zimmerman shutdown made sense... the Nationals were out of contention. This is different. Sep 10, 2012 06:19 AM Richard Bergstrom (36532) Not really. The Nationals aren't fighting for a playoff spot, they have one pretty well secured. Thus the Nationals don't need him for September. September is not the issue, it's October. That's what the focus has been. Sep 10, 2012 07:42 AM John Douglass (53235) If Strasburg becomes one of the premiere pitchers in baseball--one of the game's 6-8 true 'aces'--he will be an outlier in that he will have had Tommy John surgery. Richard Bergstrom (36532) No, there's nothing out of the Nats camp that there is currently anything medical. However, Strasburg is only 24 and, prior to this year, had never thrown more than 145 innings. Most players his age are still in AA or AAA and, with the way minor league schedules go, stop throwing in August. Should the Zimmerman rules apply to every young pitcher who gets Tommy John surgery? Who knows, those kinds of guidelines haven't been attempted before. Perhaps it'll work splendidly, or it'll inherit the Joba Rules punchline. FlemSnopes (32674) There's very little reason to believe that Nats' "fans aren't happy," as you say. I think I read every major Nats blog, as well as the Washington Post and the Washington Times, and all are overwhelmingly supportive of the decision, as are the reader comments. The Washington Post has editorially endorsed the decision. Every online poll of DC fans shows support in the 75%-plus range. This one today, from NatsGM, shows only 10% opposed to the decision. John Douglass (53235) I think the 'mess' Maury is referring to doesn't have a lot to do with fan sentiment, and has everything to do with the dynamic between Strasburg and the Nationals--which gets amplified by fan and media attention. geoff (20070) Plus one. I am a big Nats fan and I am completely happy with the decision. I don't personally know anyone who isn't. At spring training, we all expected that the Nats would be second or third in their division this year. Things broke their way. JOARGE9481 (65804) So sick of the whole Nolan Ryan thing. Ryan did not throw 200 innings untill he was 25. And yet, I don't see any comment on his principled statement. Why set arbitrary numbers ? Why have pitch counts? Why not just monitor performance? Sep 10, 2012 06:16 AM pmcfadden (38515) Have you watched his last couple of starts? What part of his performance suggests to you that he's anything other than worn down? geoff (20070) I don't think anyone has shown that the innings limits is arbitrary. It may not be precisely set, but that doesn't make it arbitrary. Behemoth (46675) The sentiment is good, although for pitch counts, I think most teams do that. Starters doing well and looking good have always gone an extra inning, and someone who looks gassed is often brought out a little early. That doesn't have a lot to do with how best to help a pitcher come back from Tommy John surgery, except that if Strasburg had looked tired earlier the Nats might have done something to help him out - skipped a start or whatever Richard Bergstrom (36532) A funny sidebar about all that. Tommy John was quoted as saying he didn't think Strasburg should be shut down. Boras's response is "Would you rather take the advice of the doctor who performed the surgery or the patient who was asleep?" Richard Bergstrom (36532) Note that Nolan Ryan instilled heavier pitching workloads in the minor leagues as one of his main priorities when he took over the Rangers. Has the Rangers staff gotten better? Yes. But they've also had a ton of injuries, to the point where their deep rotation got so thin they had to dig up Roy Oswalt. Let me ask the quorum... who's better, Strasburg or Lannan? Sep 10, 2012 06:21 AM Shawn (17220) Right now, Lannan...because he can pitch this year still. Richard Bergstrom (36532) It's also the wrong question to ask. The Nationals have a pretty good hold on a playoff slot. The correct question is whether Strasburg is that much better than Zimmerman, Gonzalez and Jackson since most playoff staffs use a three man rotation with all the extra off days. Or, if they use a four man, is he that much better than Detwiler? pmcfadden (38515) False premise. Most Nats fans aren't unhappy about this. We're just not. I know everyone ELSE is, and that everyone expects the Nats fans to be gathering their pitchforks and torches, but we're not. Sorry. vernon302 (43381) Awful article. It rests on a false premise- Rizzo DIDN'T set an innings limit, i.e. he did exactly what the author says he should have done. The strict innings limit was a creation of media and fan speculation, based on what they did with Jordan Zimmermann the previous year. I challenge the author to find me a quote from Rizzo or anyone else in the Nats front office setting an innings limit before late August. pmcfadden (38515) "This is the kind of analysis I'd expect from the simplistic major media outlets, not BP." Yeah, but kind of understates the case. This is the kind of analysis I'd expect from Mike Lupica. The innings limit was said by Davey Johnson based on Zimmerman. So, it was said. Sep 10, 2012 07:27 AM vernon302 (43381) Davey said it recently and vaguely, though. The whole premise of your article is that the front office "created a monster" by setting an innings limit earlier in the season. They did no such thing. You're really grasping for straws here. I don't know if it was "vague"... Sep 10, 2012 08:29 AM Behemoth (46675) I don't see how that conflicts with the Nationals taking expert medical advice on this, and then coming to an informed decision. While I'm not saying you treat everyone the same in these things, I'm unclear why Strasburg should be able to go significantly more innings than Zimmermann. If you're going to convince people, you're going to either have to come up with evidence that the Nats have not gone with the best available advice, or that they should ignore that advice. I don't think you've managed either of these so far. tomterp (32514) One point of clarification - Zimmermann is the reference point for Strasburg's innings limit. Zimmerman plays third base and presumably not under any innings limit. pmcfadden (38515) Oh, hey, he's a fun game. How about his start before THAT? Pitched 5, 9H, 1BB, 3Ks, 7 runs (5 earned). wilsonc (24674) "If you're "happy" about the move, you're basically saying at this point and this time, Lannan is a better option than Strasburg." pmcfadden (38515) God I wish I could add more than one plus one to some comments. Plus one million, wilsonc. vernon302 (43381) Exactly. I'd only add that the drop-off from Strasburg to Lannan would have occurred if they'd skipped starts earlier in the year, too. If her skipped five starts in the spring and summer, they might only be up 3.5 games in the NL East instead of 5.5 games with a weekend series against the Braves looming. geoff (20070) (1) As far as getting into a pitcher's head, would it be better to shut him down out of the blue after a few so-so starts? Or to announce early that it's coming, and then follow through with your plan? I'm thinking the former is more damaging. OuagadougouGM (31977) Seriously, the Nats aren't going to use Strasburg in the playoffs? Someone should be fired. Shawn (17220) This is a poor BP article. Reads more like a Tom Verducci piece where it's clear that the author wants to tell a specific story, selecting a few pieces of "evidence" that are either out of date (talking about his economic impact 2 years ago instead of this year) or irrelevant (quote from Nolan Ryan about pitch count philosophy), finishing off with a restatement of the story that keeps asking questions instead of providing answers. "Pissed?" I don't understand it, but this is not something I am "pissed" about. And, I'm fine with the article. It's not an entirely objective topic, and I know it. To not cover the topic here at BP would have been to not cover a high-profile issue. Sep 10, 2012 08:31 AM PeterBNYC (15402) Maury: I generally agree with your basic premise- that this was not handled well. The discussion you provoked seems to me to have covered every issue, but one, which I wiull get to. Whether the Nationals are correct or not, only time will tell. What I woud really like to know, from a BizBall column, is what effect, in your opinion, insurance had on this decision by the Nationals, or on Scott Boras' acquiescence? It is somewhat unuaual for Boras to go along with something like this affecting a client. Just curious. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Why is it unusual for Boras to go along? Both his interests and Strasburg's interests are best served by Strasburg being healthy enough to get future contracts. Maybe if Strasburg were a pending free agent he'd be against the innings limit but Strasburg's under contract for the next few years still. ColonelFred (11557) I'll reiterate what others have already pointed out. The majority of Nats' fans understand this move and are not mad at the team because of it. I've been a season ticket holder from day 1 here in DC, and very few fans that I know are second-guessing the team on this. Alan G. Ampolsk (62455) Here's another Nats season ticket holder completely in favor of the decision to shut him down. The inconsistency he's been showing in the second half is very close to what we saw last year from Jordan Zimmermann. Having watched Zimmermann's performance this year, I'm more than willing to go with the Nats' medical crew on this. What I've yet to see is an equally qualified medical opinion in favor of keeping Strasburg going. The "put him in a power dive and see if the wings come off" approach, to me, doesn't cut it. Get him injured again and you're back in Mark Prior territory. flyingdutchman (11087) I think every team that isn't in contention should bench all of its valuable future starters. What if one of them gets hurt? Richard Bergstrom (36532) You must be an Eric Chavez fan. flyingdutchman (11087) I don't understand this reference. Why must I be an Eric Chavez fan? Richard Bergstrom (36532) Guess it was a bit obscure because Chavez was a position player, but he had a tendency to get hurt if the wind ricocheted off the empty seats at the Oakland Coliseum wrong. flyingdutchman (11087) Oh, I see. Well yeah, I remember Chavez's fragility, but of course I was being sarcastic. Thanks on this. I was beginning to think I was the only one. Sep 10, 2012 17:11 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) To rehash some of what I've said elsewhere on this thread... gweedoh565 (48688) This is really what is so bothersome to those who disagree with the shutdown: the data and evidence for innings limits or pitch count limits reducing injuries just isn't convincing (the publicly available data, at least- it is absolutely likely that the Nats have done a LOT of research on the topic). thegeneral13 (32625) Not convincing to you. But convincing to those who are able to combine a) more and better data than you have with b) a much more complete mosaic of injury and recovery outcomes than you possess based on hundreds of combined years of observing and correlating pitcher injuries with usage patterns. So just recognize that you and all of us are operating at an information disadvantage here, and are in a better position to question the strategy/implementation of the innings limit than its medical merit. And of course keep in mind that inconclusive data doesn't mean a theory isn't valid, it just means that presently available data doesn't prove it (think Higgs boson until a couple months ago). Richard Bergstrom (36532) And, in general, the Nationals have much better information than we do about Strasburg's medical status than we do and they can talk to doctors to get opinions. If they think it's a good idea to shut him down and if the benefit of keeping him going is relatively neglibile, it makes sense to defer to them. thegeneral13 (32625) I think you make some wild assertions here, including that he was capable of "pitching his team to a Championship" (when that would require 220+ innings on the season) and that there's "nothing wrong with him physically" (when the guy is coming off of a major surgery with historical evidence indicating the recovery process is still ongoing). I know it's fun to be a hero and everything, but if you work out the differential b/t the Nats' championship odds with and without Strasburg (as some others have indirectly alluded to), it is going to be somewhere in the fraction of a percent range. He's already done the most important part, which is add enough value in the regular season to get his team (almost certainly) into the playoffs. So what would you risk for that miniscule increase in odds? A 10% chance of a second TJ for Strasburg? 5%? It's really low in my book, effectively zero percent, so I'd shut him down whenever I felt like I was hitting an inflection point in the risk curve. It's the team's job to be rational about these things, and that's why it was smart to take the decision out of Strasburg's hands, and why one has to respect management's willingness to stick to the original plan. "...I'd shut him down whenever I felt like I was hitting an inflection point in the risk curve." Sep 10, 2012 22:35 PM flyingdutchman (11087) Why not shut down Ryan Zimmerman then? Replacing him isn't going to cost you a playoff spot, and the drop-off from him to whomever will replace him (or whomever will replace Espinosa, who will replace him, or what have you) cannot be much larger than the drop-off from Strasburg to Lannan. You are committed to Zimmerman through 2019, and for a lot of money, too. Once you're in the playoffs, as we all know, it's kind of a crapshoot, and you'll need Ryan Zimmerman for your run next season, should you have one. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Ok, should we really play that game. flyingdutchman (11087) That's a fair point. I guess I just mean that Strasburg has been in the rotation all year. Getting pulled from it has got to be painful. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Sure, it's painful, but it's not a real good justification to keep someone in. A.J. Burnett, Jason Marquis, and quite a few others have been left off postseason rosters before. thegeneral13 (32625) There is a completely different injury probability curve for pitchers and position players. Pitchers are typically afflicted by repetitive stress injuries, i.e. those whose probability accumulates with usage. Position players occasionally are as well (throwing elbows, wrist ailments, maybe obliques), but a lot more often there is a specific incident (hit by pitch, pulled hammy, dislocated shoulder, etc.), i.e. those in which the probability of injury on any given play is independent of any preceding plays. So Zimmerman's injury probability is essentially unchanged from play to play, game to game, and there's thus no more reason to sit him today than there was yesterday. In that case your reasoning holds - it's baseball, there's risk, you could get hurt on any play, but that's no reason to sit. thegeneral13 (32625) I like your plan. It would level the playing field for my Twins, whose rotation would be unaffected. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Wouldn't affect the A's either since they trade away their rotation every year. RaysProf (7218) RB: Out of the 10,000 posts from you in the past 6 months, this one may have been the best. flyingdutchman (11087) I suspect it was for me. Hahahaha, that's a good one! Richard Bergstrom (36532) I'm a Cubs fan, I watched the 2003 NLCS. When neither Wood nor Prior were barely throwing 90 mph during the playoffs, it was obvious that something was wrong. Also, the Cubs were up 3-1 in that series but kept throwing Prior and Wood on short rest. That's the kind of thing that happens during a playoff, risks get taken. If Strasburg was on the Nationals postseason roster, I guarantee you similar risks would be taken to throw him on short rest or have him throw in relief if a game went into extra innings. Does it guarantee injury? No. But just because you play Russian Roulette only once doesn't mean you'll survive the experience. Each extra risk is an extra spin. flyingdutchman (11087) I lived in Chicago at the time. Really, they were barely throwing 90? I don't remember it that way. Are you sure? Richard Bergstrom (36532) Yes, I'm sure. Prior peaked around 91 and Wood around 93. I'm sure there are replays of the Bartman inning that show the mph. Behemoth (46675) No, we don't know that the way Dusty Baker used pitchers was conclusively the thing that ruined them. There's no real way we could ever know exactly what caused a particular injury in a particular player. redspid (20166) I can't believe you guys are still going on about this. But if you would rather have Edwin Jackson start a playoff game than Strasburg, then I have some nice land to sell you. Richard Bergstrom (36532) If you don't notice that their overall statistics are similar with Jackson providing longer starts in exchange for a slight drop in quality, then I'll buy your land, hold onto it for ten years (since land prices tend to go up.. you noticed that, right?), then sell it for a healthy profit. redspid (20166) Sure, all land and real estate have gone up the last 10 years. Ask people living in Nevada or Florida if they got a good deal. And I'll still take Strasburg 99 out of 100 times. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Actually, I live in Denver and my house is in one of the Top 10 foreclosed zip codes in the country. I'm still doing ok. redspid (20166) I give up. I wouldn't make that offer, as I'm only comparing Strasburg to Jackson. You never see the other side of the equation and are stubborn as a mule.
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87 comments have been left for this article.
There are practical reasons why the late start and the skipping starts along the way strategies were not used. The late start strategy (assuming you are leaving enough innings for a full playoff run) had a high risk of leaving Strasburg a long way short of 160IP, given the possibility of missing some starts due to minor injuries or the Nationals missing the playoffs/going out early (remember that pre-season they were one of four realistic contenders in that division). If he didn't pitch the full 160 or close to it, you have a similar problem next year in that he would have a huge jump in innings, which is also a significant injury risk.
I understand that the doctors advised that keeping him in a routine was safer than skipping starts here and there - that's why the Nats went with him pitching every fifth day until his quota was used up. Additionally, it seemed likely at the beginning of the season that you might need every single start to have a chance to reach the playoffs.
The only reasonable alternative position is that you're going to keep running him out there against medical advice, because the chance to win a World Series this year is worth that risk. Obviously, you can look at whether he's tiring or not, but that isn't anywhere close to being foolproof - plenty pitchers get hurt without showing signs of injury or fatigue in advance.
If he would have finished with 120-130 IP this year due to minor injuries along the way (after a late start to year), that's not an issue at all. A jump from 125 innings in 2012 to 200 innings in 2013 wouldn't have been much of a concern.
Veteran pitchers that jump from 120 to 200 innings usually aren't much of a concern. If it was a young pitcher, I'd be concerned.
Strasburg's 23 ... that seems "young" to me ... what's your definition of "young"?
26 or younger... Basically anyone with less than three full major league seasons.
I disagree, and I think the Nats would like significantly more than 200 innings out of Strasburg in 2013, especially if they go deep into the playoffs. Adding 100 innings or so at his age is not good.