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September 7, 2012

Value Picks

Starting Pitching for 9/7/12

by Paul Sporer

Can you believe we officially have less than a month of the regular season left? That depresses me. I like football just fin; I just love baseball two billion times more. Okay, chin up, no need for tears. We’ve still got a month plus the playoffs, which are shaping up to be fantastic. More importantly, you have got your fantasy playoffs (or at least a stretch run for you roto folks) to worry about right now. The September roster expansion deepens the pool of potential Value Picks, but pitchers running up against inning limits, wearing down, or outright being shutdown cuts into that depth a bit.

Departures
Exhibit A of the shutdown phenomenon comes from the Brewers as Mark Rogers (Yahoo! 2%, ESPN 1%, CBS 7%) drops out this week. Rogers landed in the NL VP arena twice thanks to quality peripherals powered by a 9.5 K/9, but the Brewers aren’t interested in tempting fate with the oft-injured righty, deciding to shut him down after 134 1/3 combined innings across Triple-A and the bigs. That is a career-high as a professional for Rogers and qualifies as a minor miracle when you consider his injury history. He has missed two entire seasons (2007 and 2008) and parts of five others, with innings maxes ranging from 27 to 99.

Returning
Playing time crunches usually have a way of working themselves out in the majors. Unfortunately, it’s usually because someone gets hurt, but in other instances someone underperforms and it makes more sense to switch him out with the higher upside player. In short, rarely does a deserving player sit idly by in a role smaller than his talent. A.J. Griffin (Yahoo! 15%, ESPN 11%, CBS 49%) was pitching masterfully when he got hurt back in early August. The already-crowded rotation had Brett Anderson on the way back, so Griffin was pushed to the backburner. Then Bartolo Colon was popped for testosterone a couple of weeks later, opening up another rotation spot.

The A’s were never really in dire need with Griffin out, but the depth was eaten into a bit even while Travis Blackley filled in admirably. Griffin returned on September 1 and picked up right where he left off, hurling seven innings of one run ball while yielding just three hits and striking out five. Then on Wednesday afternoon, Brandon McCarthy was unfortunately struck with a comeback liner, which is obviously terribly, but now the A’s can once again turn to Blackley or bring Dan Straily back into the fray. In other words, they will be fine.

More on the guy we are here to talk about, though. Griffin’s composite line with near-equal 50-something-inning samples at Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB comes out to a 2.64 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, and 4.7 K/BB in 153 2/3 innings of work. That isn’t just inflated by the minors either; he has a 2.26 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 4.0 K/BB in 51 2/3 major league innings.

Arriving
I’m probably not the only one who gives any new San Diego Padre pitcher a look just because that home park is so insanely favorable. Obviously a guy still has to have talent, but it is very forgiving and it seems to even give some confidence to guys closer to the marginal side of the talent spectrum, aiding them in some success on the road too. Andrew Werner (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 1%, CBS 6%) spent 2009 and 2010 in the independent leagues before latching on with the Padres last year. He pitched well in 136 1/3 innings between Single- and High-A, but at 24 years old, he wasn’t really considered a prospect. His peripherals showed a tick of degradation as he moved up to Double- and Triple-A this year but nothing more than you’d expect from a pitcher moving to a tougher league.