August 24, 2012

Raising Aces

Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner

by Doug Thorburn

Clayton Kershaw dominated the rival Giants last season, going 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA and a 49:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts and 42 innings, including a perfect four-for-four in head-to-head battles with San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum. Kershaw has held the Giants to a sub-2.00 ERA again in 2012, though he had come up on the short end of the decision in two of his three starts against them to Monday's match-up with Madison Bumgarner. It was the first meeting for two young southpaws who will likely be dueling out west for years to come.

The numbers for the two pitchers are remarkably similar this season (see table), with Kershaw continuing to make his own case against DIPS theory by leading the NL in hit rate for the third time in four seasons, playing in front of a Dodger defense that ranks eighth in the majors in Defensive Efficiency. The L.A. ace has maintained a sub-.280 BABIP in each of the last three seasons, and his current mark of .268 would qualify as a career-best. Bumgarner entered the season with a career BABIP over .300, but his 2012 mark is even lower than Kershaw's in spite of the ninth-ranked gloves of the Giants.

2012 Stats (entering Monday's Game)

	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	BABIP	ERA	WHIP	W - L
Clayton Kershaw	170.2	8.7	2.2	6.9	.268	2.90	1.01	11 - 6
Madison Bumgarner	163.2	8.2	1.8	7.4	.262	2.97	1.01	13 - 7

The Duel
This was an intriguing matchup of two left-handers with widely disparate processes yet strikingly similar results. Kershaw has the electric stuff, pumping mid-90s gas when he's not causing heads to spin with his ferocious breaking pitches, but his mechanical profile is full of warts. On the other hand, Bumgarner relies on killer mechanical efficiency and deception to allow his more modest stuff to play up on the big stage. Both lineups were stacked to exploit the platoon advantage, with each team starting seven right-handed hitters to counter the southpaws on the mound. Kershaw and Bumgarner posted identical lines in the true outcome categories, with each lefty notching 10 strikeouts over eight full frames without issuing a single walk or home run. The Giants would scratch out two runs off of Kershaw, with both RBI coming courtesy of Pablo Sandoval, but the Dodgers were unable to score against Bumgarner.

	IP	K	BB	H	RA	PC – strike %
The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. 15 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct fawcettb (34177) Really nice piece. Aug 24, 2012 05:38 AM link rating: 4   jhardman (1817) Really enjoyed this one. Good stuff. Aug 24, 2012 06:57 AM link rating: 1   Sharky (12101) Ditto Aug 24, 2012 07:24 AM link rating: 1   erikh24 (47136) love this stuff Aug 24, 2012 07:52 AM link rating: 1   oakwcj (16756) In the last paragraph on Kershaw's stuff, you have Posey as his catcher with Sandoval at the plate. Buster is awesome, but even he can't be on deck and behind the plate at the same time. Aug 24, 2012 08:48 AM link rating: 0   Ben Lindbergh BP staff (37618) Good catch. Replaced with A.J. Ellis. Aug 24, 2012 08:51 AM link   Doug Thorburn BP staff (1282) He was also in the blimp, manning the camera Aug 24, 2012 12:23 PM link   AadikShekar (3408) Very cool piece Doug - loved it. Aug 24, 2012 10:14 AM link rating: 0   Sean (33374) Love all of these. Would find it really helpful to participate in a "quiz" piece, where we try to take the knowledge we've learned and pick out certain aspects of a pitcher's delivery. I'd like to see if I'm on the right track when not knowing the answer first. Aug 24, 2012 10:24 AM link rating: 1   Doug Thorburn BP staff (1282) Excellent idea, Sean - that would be a lot of fun to write. Thanks for the suggestion. Besides, I've been looking for an excuse to embed even more GIF's into an article. Aug 24, 2012 12:25 PM link   rileybreck (62120) Fantastic work. Thanks for doing this, Doug. Aug 24, 2012 12:34 PM link rating: 0   Doug Thorburn BP staff (1282) My pleasure. Duels like this are so much fun to write up that I had a hard time showing restraint on the word count. Aug 24, 2012 12:39 PM link   howlingmoon (1639) More of this. Excellent piece, great graphics. Aug 24, 2012 12:59 PM link rating: 0   jimcal (24946) Great article Doug! Would you mind go in-depth about slide step? One scout praised about slide step change up from a righty to me, make me wonder how efficient slide step is from the stretch from either mechanism and timing perspective. Thanks! Jim Aug 24, 2012 14:20 PM link rating: 0   Ben Lindbergh BP staff (37618) Doug is is way ahead of you. Aug 24, 2012 14:26 PM link   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Overthinking It: The A... (08/24) << Previous Column Raising Aces: Draft Da... (08/17) Next Column >> Raising Aces: Four of ... (08/31) Next Article >> What You Need to Know:... (08/27) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Daily Hit List: Friday, May 24 Transaction Analysis: Demotion Pictures What Makes a Good Changeup? What You Need to Know: Searching for Jesus Eyewitness Accounts: May 24, 2013 Overthinking It: The Longest Plate Appearanc... Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framin... MORE FROM AUGUST 24, 2012 Value Picks: Outfielders for 8/24/12 Weekly Planner: Week 22 Collateral Damage Daily: Friday, August 24 Daily Hit List: Friday, August 24 What You Need to Know: Friday, August 24 Overthinking It: Finding Life After 30 The BP Wayback Machine: The Steroids Game MORE BY DOUG THORBURN 2012-09-14 - Raising Aces: The Man in the Ironic Mask 2012-09-07 - Raising Aces: The Ace-Time Continuum 2012-08-31 - Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Oakland's Aces 2012-08-24 - Raising Aces: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs.... 2012-08-17 - Raising Aces: Draft Day Deliveries, Part Thr... 2012-08-10 - Raising Aces: Hocking LOOGYs 2012-08-03 - Raising Aces: Throwdown: Zack Greinke vs. Je... More... MORE RAISING ACES 2012-09-14 - Raising Aces: The Man in the Ironic Mask 2012-09-07 - Raising Aces: The Ace-Time Continuum 2012-08-31 - Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: Oakland's Aces 2012-08-24 - Raising Aces: Throwdown: Clayton Kershaw vs.... 2012-08-17 - Raising Aces: Draft Day Deliveries, Part Thr... 2012-08-10 - Raising Aces: Hocking LOOGYs 2012-08-03 - Raising Aces: Throwdown: Zack Greinke vs. Je... More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!