Assuming that those 29 games are in fact a random sample of all baseball games, you could use this to figure out how much he helps in the playoffs as well.

(.11)/29 = .00379, or around 4 thousandths of a win per game. It seems like someone could turn that into expected increased win expectancy for having Billy Hamilton on the playoff roster.

The question for the Reds, then, is whether that small increase in win expectancy is worth dumping their 12th or 13th pitcher. My guess is yes. But the difference is probably small enough that intangibles could make a difference. Maybe that 13th pitcher is a great presence in the clubhouse, or is buddies with Joey Votto, or whatever other reason you'd want to keep him around.

Great article! Thanks. Hopefully we all get a chance to see Billy Hamilton and his burners in the big leagues this year.

Fun article, Sam. But I absolutely love that line in the 3rd-last graf - "How often does Hamilton steal successfully when the other team knows he's running?".

What's his SB% again? Because at this point, the other team should always know that he's running.

Matt Alexander called to say "Hello!"

First of all, hilarious stuff as usual.

Secondly, I wonder if the 6th-inning-or-later limitation you imposed may be too restrictive, particularly given the expanded roster (allowing for a better bat to be subbed in for Hamilton after deploying him in an early inning where a highly leveraged Dave Roberts-like situation presents itself), and the fact that in your model, Slidin' Billy wasn't used at all in half the games.

I'm sure it looks much different in person, but Hamilton simply doesn't LOOK fast to me when he's running. I don't know how to describe it other than it's just like other people are doing things more slowly than normal. It's that same kind of feel when you watch Usain Bolt run. It's not that his legs are churning faster than everybody else, he seems to move further with each strike...

How much does the 0.11 Win number change if the bullpen arm Billy Hamilton is replacing is Jonathan Broxton?

You almost lost me when you said that, contrary to your lede, this was NOT a piece about geometry. This is Baseball Prospectus - I expect to find myself swimming in all sorts of math when I read the site. The prospect of you somehow adding geometry (perhaps Euclidean, or, dare I dream, non-Euclidean) to the usual math found here greatly excited me. Then, to be denied geometry - not cool.

Fortunately, your generous offer of a Billy Hamilton video kept me reading. But the next time you offer geometry, Sam, I expect you to deliver. If Matt can work modus ponens into a Daily Hit List, certainly you can find a place for geometry in one of your articles.

;)

Watching the first video, it looks like Hamilton is really bad at sliding feet-first, almost as if he has to slow himself down while in a standing position before he hits the ground.

Maybe that's what you have to do to slide feet-first when you're that fast though. I would have no earthly idea.