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August 2, 2012

Overthinking It

Have Glove, Will Learn to Hit

by Ben Lindbergh

Plenty of weak-hitting players from baseball’s past and present have gotten by on good gloves alone. Most big-league benches boast a part-timer whose sole strength is an ability to play capable defense at premium positions. But despite Brendan Ryan’s best efforts, relatively few players become stars unless they can combine good gloves with big bats.  

Fortunately, not every good-field, no-hit player is destined to stay that way. Legendary glove man Ozzie Smith was a good player who turned into a great one when he learned how to hit in his late 20s. Defensive players of Smith’s caliber are few and far between, but some of today’s finest fielders could follow a similar trajectory. This season, the following five defense-first players who entered 2012 with reputations as easy outs have become much tougher to retire, transforming themselves (at least temporarily) into all-around threats instead of one-dimensional talents.

Jeff Mathis, C, Blue Jays
Before this season, Mathis had been one of the worst hitters in baseball for the better part of a decade: from 2005 to 2011, only one player (Humberto Quintero) made a minimum of 1000 plate appearances with a TAv worse than Mathis’ .207. But Mathis’ former manager, Mike Scioscia, valued his defense so highly that he often inserted him into the lineup ahead of superior hitters (meaning anyone other than Mathis). 

This season, Mathis hasn’t just hit better than he ever has before, he’s hit better than the average catcher. He hasn’t played enough to make a major impact, but in just 35 games and 110 plate appearances, he’s contributed half a win to Toronto. That makes this the first season in which he’s played above replacement level, according to WARP (which doesn’t currently capture all of his defensive contributions). His plate discipline stats and walk, strikeout, and batted-ball rates don’t look much different, and his BABIP is well above its usual norm, which would seem to suggest that his small-sample success is a fluke. But the improvement isn’t all batting-average based, the result of a few more bloops and bleeders. Over the last seven seasons, 68 percent of Mathis’ hits were singles. This season, only 48 percent are. And his fly balls have left the park almost four times as frequently as they did from 2010-2011.

Some of that can be explained by his move from Angel Stadium, a hard place to hit right-handed homers, to Rogers Centre, a far more favorable offensive environment. But there might be more to it. Shortly after Mathis’ move, former catcher Gregg Zaun claimed that Mathis had better power than was generally believed and speculated that his hitting would improve once he was free from Scioscia’s single-minded emphasis on defense. If a new mindset has played a role in Mathis’ surprising success, he might manage to retain more of his gains at the plate than we’d expect from the typical one-season wonder.

Craig Gentry, CF, Rangers
In May, I called Gentry the Rangers’ secret weapon, but by now, the secret is out. Since the start of the 2011 season, Gentry has recorded outs on 11.1 percent of the batted balls allowed by Rangers pitchers—the highest percentage of team balls in play caught by any center fielder with at least 300 innings at the position over the same span. With Gentry in center, Rangers opponents from 2011-2012 have reached base at a .287 clip and slugged .354. With anyone other than Gentry in center, Rangers opponents have reached base at a .302 clip and slugged .380. Over hundreds of plate appearances, a difference of 15 points of OBP and 26 points of slugging leads to a lot of runs saved. Gentry is a fly-ball pitcher’s best friend.