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July 30, 2012

108 Stitches

Pulling Back the Curtain on the Trade Deadline

by Dan Evans

As we announced earlier this month, former Los Angeles Dodgers GM, major-league executive, and player agent Dan Evans has joined Baseball Prospectus as a regular contributor. In his first article, he explains what the trade deadline is like from a general manager's perspective. Dan will be answering your questions in his chat this Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET, so submit your questions now.


Tension? Absolutely. Anxiety? Sure. Pressure? Without a doubt. Enjoyment? No question.

Tuesday's MLB trade deadline is unlike any other time of the year, as it affects more people in the sport than any other event over the course of a season. By late July, everyone in the game has settled into a nice daily routine after spending the last several months and about two-thirds of the season together. Then the deadline arrives to disrupt the routine. Players, field staff, front office personnel, scouts, media, and minor-league franchises have no choice but to adjust. You you can feel its approach in everything that you do. And I mean everything.

The deadline seems to take on mythic proportions, but for the people who make the big decisions for each major-league club, it is the very best time of the year. It's an opportunity to impact your club at a critical stage, whether you are a buyer or a seller.

The Decision
In many organizations, deciding where the team stands at the deadline is the most difficult part of the process. There are 17 teams within five games of a playoff berth today, and herein lies the tough call. Are we a buyer or a seller? This conversation isn't comfortable, as it requires a sit-down with ownership about where you are as a franchise. This is a critical phase, since you need to come clean and then find out what direction ownership wants to take. If you are the general manager, it also is a job review of sorts, since your work is under inspection. This chat requires some preparation, because you have to go into the meeting with a plan. For some GMs in fragile stages of their contracts, it can be the beginning of the end of their employment.

Everyone likes to talk about what you're looking to add as a contender, but the other path is the much more difficult one. If you are one of the 13 or so clubs who woke up today with little or no chance to play in the postseason, you have to evaluate who is part of your nucleus for the following year and beyond and whom you might consider moving to try to contend in the future. This is where your scouts and minor-league staff become critical decision makers if you're doing it right. If they can evaluate well and are realistic about your personnel, you can make shrewd moves. If not, two years later you'll still be waiting for guys to get out of Double-A. It is extremely tough to communicate with your staff if you are going to change course, but if there is a distinct plan, they will be part of the solution, not the problem.

If ownership believes in your plan, the decision can be served to different degrees. How much are you willing to do, and at what cost? Every club has its own unique dynamics. As in every business, there are budgets that have to be analyzed. A component of the process seldom publicized is the marketing department's attendance projections for the final third of the season. Remember, NFL camps are opening, and the battle for the entertainment dollar comes into play in many markets. If you tell your fans that you're out, ticket sales and group buys will slow, and the media will favor other franchises when it starts making decisions about which sports are more relevant. There is also the issue of being in a two-team market, which I experienced for many years in Chicago and Los Angeles. You definitely are aware of what the other club in your market is doing and how your deadline decisions will be perceived.

Buying isn’t always about bolstering a particular position, as sometimes you are more interested in adding experience or character to your club, somebody who has played in the postseason and would bring a stabilizing influence. I did that in 2003 when I traded for Robin Ventura, whom I knew extremely well from my days with the White Sox and whom I thought would improve a Dodger club that had not been to the postseason in nearly a decade. His contribution to the clubhouse was enormous and immediate.

A great talent evaluator told me early in my career that if you are focusing on bringing in a starting pitcher, make sure the guy has been there before, because it is a tough task to ask a starter to take on that type of pressure if he hasn't already experienced it. We added Tim Belcher one year with the White Sox because he had post-season experience and great character, and he was extremely valuable to our club throughout that run. I brought in James Baldwin when I was with the Dodgers because I knew what a great competitor he was, having been with him for years with the White Sox.

Like most everything, deadline decisions often come down to money. If you can assume a player's salary, you don't have to pay as much in terms of prospects, and you can remain in talks longer. But if you're limited by your budget, the other club will usually keep you in play but demand a pricey return. I can tell you from experience that you sleep much better as a buyer with budget room than without.

The Process
This evaluation process leading up to the deadline truly begins in spring training, when the better organizations are already targeting players who might be available in the upcoming months. As a scout, you spend a little bit more time evaluating those guys and listening with a different filter. When I was a special assistant, I always made a list in February and set up my first-half schedule with the players on it in mind, having to anticipate who might come up in a conversation. You might watch a spring training game with July in mind.

Here is where the field staff is important in the process. You have to know what they think are their club's weaknesses and what areas they would like to improve. Keep in mind that they’re the ones really filling out the lineup card and making substitutions. If you bring in a complementary player or a reliever, you have to know how he will be used, because that can alter how the candidate fits into your scheme.

Once you decide which direction your club is headed, you have to review which teams are a better fit from your perspective, and the sooner the better. Many conversations between clubs take place before or during the All-Star Game events. Some teams are ready to go early, while others sit on the fence because they just aren't ready to commit, and you have to adjust accordingly.

As names got tossed around, their scouting reports get examined, as do their statistics. Who wrote the report? When did the scout see the player? You can always find numbers that reflect either positively or negatively on a player. Everyone has their own stats they like best, and I am no exception. The key is to use similar measures to compare players, and every team has its own favorite tools. I have been a SABR member for over 30 years and started in an extremely progressive White Sox organization, so I have been using some stats for an extended period. In addition to some of the usual stats, I want to see how a player has performed in his team's home ballpark. Along with the typical hitting measures, I look at pitches per plate appearance, percentage of RBI opportunities converted (a Baseball Prospectus stat I have used for years), and previous performance against elite pitchers in the game. For pitchers, aside from the usual stats, I migrate toward first pitch strike percentage, baserunners per nine innings, groundball/fly ball ratio, and complete breakdowns of each player’s pitch repertoire.

When trying to acquire a player, a team has to know the player's current footprint on the baseball landscape. A player's major-league service time and current contract status are as important to know as his scouting reports, because they dictate the control a club has over the player in the next few years in terms of roster status and rights (arbitration, free agency, 10/5 status), along with the player's impact on the club's budget. Every team has its own method of weighing these factors. Service time travels with a player if he’s traded, and some have certain provisions that everyone internally has to be aware of when evaluating the potential deal. In addition, clubs have to monitor their under-control limit, because you cannot have more than 40 players on the major-league roster (with some exceptions, most notably the 60-day disabled list). That is frequently a topic of discussion in multi-player deals, since teams have to maneuver around their 40-man and sometimes will need to make subsequent moves to make room.

You would be amazed at how that initial contact occurs with another club, and how sometimes it is carefully plotted to get the correct message to the right person. It can come from the owner, the general manager, a top scout, or even floated in a strategically placed comment in the media. From that point, interaction comes in a myriad of ways, from direct calls to e-mails to texts and direct messages. Fresh batteries and a new stack of Post-it notes become a key part of your day at this time of year regardless of what position in the game you hold.

It is humbling to be in the race, trying to add pieces to your big-league team, when your minor-league system does not have the resources to land an intended target. One year, a club reviewed the team I was working for and said, "We don't like any of your players in a deal for our guy." I used that as motivation to improve our minor-league system in the future, but those words stung at the time and in fact proved true, as our lack of attractive minor-league talent prevented us from making any significant deals.

Internally, you go through a lot of conference calls and video chats, getting input from the people whose opinion you value. In addition to the general manager and his top front office staff, the club's top scouts become critical elements. Sometimes your best evaluators include some of your amateur area scouts, and you have to take them off their usual coverage. The scouting director and his top cross-checkers know valuable things about players, both on and off the field, from their amateur days. The trainers and team doctor also become critical, since they give you feedback about the risk involved in adding players with some injury history. I know that having the great Dr. Frank Jobe as a teammate with the Dodgers saved me from making at least one crucial mistake at the deadline.

After that round of internal evaluations, your trade targets then need to be scouted again. This time, it becomes a more specific evaluation, whether you're a buyer or a seller. If you’re looking to add, your best scouts have to see the candidates and have the latest info. It is useful just to see who else is in the ballpark and know your competition. People don’t just happen to be in the same stadium. You network like crazy and try to find out about guys' makeup and their ability to fit into what you are trying to accomplish.

One of the funny aspects about this particular stage is that every scout needs to call the host team for a prime seat at each game. As a result, that team has valuable information, because it really knows who is in on a particular club or player. If that club is a seller, the person who administrates the scout tickets gives the best seats to the team their club believes is the best match. If you're in a poor scouting position, you know you're not in the lead!

Great scouts sometimes operate a little like the CIA. One year, I went to visit a friend whom I had gotten tickets for and ran into one of the game's best evaluators, hidden down the line away from the scouting pack. We exchanged hellos, and later he told me that he did not want anyone to know his club was in attendance. It was a great lesson for me.

Another time, I spotted a great GM at a minor-league game that did not involve his team. Knowing that he wasn't talking with my club about any specific deals, I immediately thought he was closing on a trade with the other organization. Soon afterward, he confided that he was there just to watch one of the managers, as he was considering making changes to his field staff and wanted to get a first-hand look at a candidate.

One of the most difficult jobs within an organization is that of the minor-league director, and that person is a huge part of the process if you want to succeed at the deadline. I was lucky to work with some talented guys in that role. Rotations sometimes have to be plotted out far in advance so that a guy's starting day can coincide with a potential opening in the rotation if a trade works out. Plus, if you are a buyer, those assets you are willing to move to make a deal have to be showcased as prominently as possible, and that is an art in itself.

Early in my career, the late Hall of Fame writer Jerome Holtzman told me that resourceful writers, particularly the beat and national ones, know what almost everybody intends to do, because they are getting so much info flow. He was 100 percent right. As I got more experience, I realized that writers talk with everyone and have a global perspective rather than a myopic one. Whether you like it or not, they find out which players you like and which you don't. It's an amazing process. One year, a writer I truly respect called because he’d heard that I had offered an incredible package for Vladimir Guerrero, and he had it down to the last player in the deal.

Guys get pulled from lineups throughout the year, but when that occurs in the final two weeks before the trade deadline, it becomes news. Speculation follows, most of it faulty, but some of it occasionally dead-on. Pitchers get pulled at just the right time to keep their value at its highest point, and those moves don't just happen. They are discussed before and during the game, and sometimes a guy will play when you least expect him to because he is being showcased.

The most difficult aspect of the trade deadline is that as the GM, you have to focus on both the short-term and long-term state of the franchise. You are the only person with that responsibility. It is numbing at times, because you hear from everyone, and each person has their own agenda.

This can also be a great source of humor. I once got a call from a season-ticket holder who supposedly was really concerned about a potential deal. After a few minutes, I realized that what he was most concerned about was that he was leading his National League-only fantasy league, and the potential deal would involve one of his key guys going to the American League. I wished him the best of luck with his team, but he didn’t reciprocate.

Another time, I was filling my car at a gas station when I was approached by a fellow customer. I had our youngest daughter with me, who was only in second grade at the time. The guy went into a tirade about something he had just heard on talk radio and used words in ways that my little girl had never heard before. I let him rant for a bit and then assured him that what he had heard on the radio was absolutely not going to happen. Suddenly, I had a friend, and he offered to pay for my gas! It's only a game, right?

Major-league managers and their field staff are concerned about now, as well they should be. Here is where the relationship between the general manager and the manager is critical. If they are on the same page, it makes the process easier for all involved. I have been on both sides of the equation. But the big-league manager is in a tough spot, because his focus is on his own major-league team. The field staff does not see the farm system, except for a few games in spring training. Sometimes they cannot understand why a guy in your system is considered untouchable. Here's where interaction with scouts and minor-league staff can make this moment easier, because their frequent input throughout the year keeps the big-league staff informed about why a guy cannot be moved.

With all of this activity taking place at once, things get complicated for everybody, and today's electronic advances have made it even more difficult. Branch Rickey did not have to deal with the constant rumors that today's decision makers have to face on a daily basis. Everyone has relationships with the players involved. If you are with the team, mingling in the clubhouse, traveling, or in batting practice, that can get awkward. Media members have to ask difficult questions and balance their own unique relationships. In addition, traveling is tougher than ever and very expensive, so you have to plan ahead as best you can.

The deadline is an incredibly difficult time for players, who have little to no control over their professional futures. Imagine hearing your name come up in media conversations while you were at work, or in a tweet about a trade. In actuality, that deal might be imminent, or it might have zero chance of coming to fruition. But in baseball, a potential trade means that you might be transferring your entire life to another city the next day and be expected to play. It's even more complicated if the player has a family. In the "real" world, these things just don't happen. For some minor-league prospects, the deadline is the first time the business side of the game truly affects them, because their name is linked to a deal and they suddenly recognize that the club they signed with as an amateur might not be their team for much longer.

Once, near the deadline, a GM went to a big-league game not involving his team to personally scout a starting pitcher who was a critical element in a huge deal being discussed. The poor kid couldn't get out of the first inning, and the GM made a bold statement by leaving the ballpark along with one of his key staff members as the starter was being removed from the game. That departure was noticed by the intended observer—the other GM involved in the negotiation. The deal ended up getting done, but not before the ante was upped by the team whose starter couldn't get the first three outs of the game.

Things can change in an instant. An injury can force a deal to blow up or a club's target to change. A "Breaking News" crawl on the bottom of the TV screen can eliminate one or more of your options. I remember watching a guy being removed early in a game once while I was scouting and seeing him exchanging handshakes from teammates; I knew then that he wasn't coming to my club. An injury to a prospect that you're dangling can force a club out of trade talks. When working on a deal, you'll usually get a call telling you that the team is going in another direction. When Plan A is no longer available and you have fewer options, you have to turn to Plan B or C immediately.

The final few hours before the deadline are unlike anything that I have ever experienced, and the last 45 minutes can be stunningly busy and not for the faint of heart. This situation requires a balancing act, and it’s impressive to see what some people can accomplish under the pressure. Baseball staffs often conduct multiple conversations at once, and the GM is always trying to develop and keep his options open while measuring whether a deal can be consummated. Relationships are key, as one person cannot manage all potential trade partners. Fallback options are critical. Like any negotiation, there comes a time when all the cards are on the table, and everyone has their own way of managing that moment.

Finally, the key is that every trade must be completed in time for the transaction to be submitted and approved by the central office. There are 30 clubs considering multiple deals at the deadline, so your administrative personnel have to be just as strategic in terms of having all of the necessary paperwork and functions completed. That can be a test at crunch time. There are some deals that would have been huge but were never completed because the teams involved ran out of time. 

The End Result
In 1983, I was in the first full year of my career with a White Sox team that was eight games out of first place and five games under the .500 mark. We had expectations of being a playoff contender for the first time in many years. The trade deadline was June 15 at the time, and GM Roland Hemond made a great deal for Seattle second baseman Julio Cruz, who impacted the team so significantly that we went 72-31 the rest of the way to win the West Division by 20 games. Cruz didn't perform as well with our club as he had with the Mariners, but he added incredible energy on both the offensive and defensive sides, and his presence kick-started a team managed by Tony La Russa. It was a wonderful lesson for me to experience this first-hand at a young age, as I was traveling with the team at the time. We won 10 of our next 12 games as the deal changed the club's mind-set. It was a brilliant, outside-the-box move by Hemond, which led to a division title for the first time in over a generation for Chicago baseball fans.

General managers like John Schuerholz or Pat Gillick have made great deals to propel their contending teams to the playoffs or even a World Series. Consider what adding Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff, David Cone, or Doyle Alexander meant to their teams. Now there are more post-season spots than ever before, but you have to win as many as 12 games to earn a World Series title.

Adding a starting pitcher at the deadline is difficult, but frequently lost in the details is how the trade deepens the rotation, pushing some of the starters to a lower notch than where they were before. Often, I hear that a pitcher acquired at the deadline will make only a dozen starts, but in reality, the addition positively affects match-ups for the rest of the season and gives you better depth if you get to the postseason. The September schedule has more off days, and smart pitching coaches can plot a rotation that makes the most of those dates. Adding a pitcher could be huge for a wild card entrant this year, because getting into the League Division Series requires winning a single-game playoff and then possibly starting a five-game series the very next day. Making a trade that leads to a deeper rotation could enable a club to survive that initial five-game series.

A pet peeve of mine is when people rush to judgment on who won a deal. In reality, you cannot review a trade at the time it occurs. A team that gets to the postseason or wins a World Series because of a big contribution from a deadline acquisition likes the deal even more in October. Prospects take time to develop, and the "selling" team can't evaluate its end of the deal immediately. It's fun to talk about transaction winners and losers, but no one really knows which is which, since it sometimes takes years after a deal for its full effects to become known.

There have been some suggestions that the trade deadline should be pushed back by a couple weeks, potentially to August 15. I understand both sides of this debate and feel that asking teams to make a decision on their status on July 31 might be too early, particularly with two post-season spots being added this year. At the end of the 2012 season, we will have a better idea of how it all works. Selfishly, it would have simplified my life a little in the past if the deadline were later. Our oldest daughter, who is now in college, says that she didn’t grasp when she was young that her birthday was a few days before the trade deadline but now understands and appreciates why Dad was on the phone so frequently at her parties.

One year, I spent the final 13 days before the trade deadline scouting in 12 different cities. I was coordinating our overall coverage, and on the morning of August 1, I ended up at an airport with three other scouts whom I had been running into for two weeks at many of the same games. We had a great chat, and although we had been pursuing many of the same players, we let our guards down a bit. One of the scouts uttered something that I will never forget: "It was incredibly fun giving my 100 percent for the last few weeks to get five percent of what we were trying to do accomplished."

His club won the World Series that year, and I called him the day after they hoisted the trophy to remind him of the conversation we had and congratulate him.

Enjoy the deadline, and appreciate what makes it such a unique part of the game. I know I will.

Dan Evans is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Dan's other articles. You can contact Dan by clicking here

Related Content:  Trades,  Trade Deadline,  Negotiations,  General Managers,  GMs

59 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

jtwalsh

Dan,

Great to see you on BP. Long time White Sox fan and I have followed your work for many years. I thought the article provided great insight and I really appreciated the personal experiences you incorporated into the article.

I have two questions for you:

1. How is the new CBA affecting this trade deadline (if at all)?
2. Your early role with the White Sox was pretty much ground zero for integrating information technology in Baseball. Who hired you for that role? Hemond, Reinsdorf, Einhorn, LaRusa?

I look forward to seeing you more on this site.

Jul 30, 2012 06:42 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks for the kind words, much appreciated. Loved my time with the White Sox.

The new CBA is affecting trades, because in the past many potential free agents acquired at the deadline carried one or two compensation choices in the form of amateur draft picks. That has been eliminated if a player is traded during the preceding year. As a result, the new team does not replenish its system with the picks.

I was hired by Roland Hemond, Jack Gould, and Chuck Shriver and had an incredible staff to learn from with three future GM's and two future big league managers also on the staff. Reinsdorf and La Russa were incredibly progressive, and I benefited from having Hemond as a boss so much along with great coaching minds like Charley Lau, Dave Duncan, and Jim Leyland.

Thanks for being a fan of Baseball Prospectus!

Jul 30, 2012 08:20 AM
 
Greg Ioannou

What a terrific debut article. Thanks and welcome!

Jul 30, 2012 07:09 AM
rating: 10
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, Greg!

Jul 30, 2012 08:21 AM
 
IvanGrushenko

Wow! Fantastic article!

Jul 30, 2012 08:07 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, Ivan

Jul 30, 2012 08:22 AM
 
Andy McG

Great read, Dan.

Jul 30, 2012 08:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thank you, Andy

Jul 30, 2012 08:21 AM
 
amazin_mess

Dan,

Wow!! Glad to have to here. Great addition and welcome!

Jul 30, 2012 08:31 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks for the comment, and love the BP ID!

Jul 30, 2012 08:36 AM
 
amazin_mess

Well you know, Mets fans must have a sense of humor!

Jul 30, 2012 08:46 AM
rating: 0
 
gpurcell

Great article. I have one question. You write:

"some [teams] have certain provisions that everyone internally has to be aware of when evaluating the potential deal."

I'd be curious what some team-specific provisions might be (without naming the teams, of course). Is this like "No Scott Boras?"

Jul 30, 2012 08:36 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

No, not anything to do with a particular agent, instead clauses in contracts that could complicate a deal, like an assignment bonus, or a perk that increases a base salary if dealt. Maybe a guy has a suite on the road. They just have to be aware.

Jul 30, 2012 14:13 PM
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I've known Dan for a very, very long time. He's a good friend and I'm thrilled to see him here at BP. I also can't read his articles without hearing every word in his voice, which is a bit strange.

Jul 30, 2012 08:59 AM
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, Kevin, enjoy being a teammate of yours after all these years! I will make sure that I clear my throat before each paragraph!!

Jul 30, 2012 14:16 PM
 
LorenA19

Awesome, informative article. Thanks for sharing!!

Jul 30, 2012 09:37 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

You're welcome, thanks for being with us

Jul 30, 2012 14:14 PM
 
mrenick

Great article. I love the insight into this side of the game.

Jul 30, 2012 09:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks. I hope your favorite team was successful today.

Jul 31, 2012 18:14 PM
 
ducat2

Phenomenal article. You certainly made the tension and complexity of trade deadline decisions palpable to your readers. Thanks.

Jul 30, 2012 09:52 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

The tension is amazing, and I remember the first time I sat through one because I was in college and it was like the roughest final I had ever been in. You know what is at stake, and so does everybody else, but that's why it captivates everyone. No other sport has this type of interest in player moves.

My goal was to convey how tough it is and how much is on the line, hopefully I accomplished it.

Luckily, Ben Lindbergh is one heck of a good editor also!

Jul 30, 2012 14:35 PM
 
mikebuetow

Fantastic article.

My question is, do clubs engage much in supplying misinformation, either directly to other clubs or via the media, to improve their chances of getting a desired player? For example, surreptitiously suggesting a targeted player is hiding an injury in the hopes of discouraging other teams from bidding?

Jul 30, 2012 10:03 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

If you mislead or outright lie to another club, it will ruin your ability to get things done in the future with that and many other teams. Especially with today's information systems, it is hard to steer people off what has been reported.

It's too small a group to deceive the other clubs.

The savvy GM's use the media to get their spin on things out there, whether it is their needs or it is their desire to get something done.

Jul 30, 2012 14:39 PM
 
Asinwreck

Terrific debut column, Dan. (And thanks for the fun trip down memory lane with the Julio Cruz deal -- I remember being very excited about him replacing Tony Bernazard, but had no idea how well the team would play the rest of the season.)


In the future, can you pepper your columns with choice quotes from Jack Gould?

Jul 30, 2012 10:12 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

When that trade was made, I don't think anyone could have expected for it to alter that 1983 team as much as it did. Julio had so much energy, and it really made a huge difference on the field and on planes and the bus. Bernazard was a good friend, and he was my first good buddy who was dealt. But Roland Hemond got it right and one of the coaches noticed it the day he reported.

Jack Gould was a real special guy, and was a tremendous hero in World War II. I miss him a lot, heart of gold. I will never forget when he walked into a room in Fenway Park and Ted Williams stood up immediately to announce that a great American hero had just entered the room.

Jul 30, 2012 14:31 PM
 
spidersva

GREAT read. Behind the curtain indeed - more of this type of story would be appreciated. Thanks Dan!

Jul 30, 2012 10:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, Peter Parker, oops, I mean Spidersva. I hope to give the readers a unique look at the game.

Jul 30, 2012 14:25 PM
 
Jivas
(649)

Great article, Dan. A lot of us who have been BP readers for a long time initially came here for the original research and the empirical bent of the analysts, but I can't tell you how neat these "behind the curtains" pieces are. I'm looking forward to more articles in the series.

Jul 30, 2012 10:36 AM
rating: 6
 
PopTarts

Couldn't agree more.

Jul 30, 2012 11:39 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks for being a loyal reader, and I appreciate the comments. There is a lot of good stuff on this site, and I hope to just add to an already solid group.

Jul 30, 2012 14:26 PM
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

When I replied to PopTarts, I was also responding to you, as you seemed to be in agreement.

Jul 31, 2012 18:15 PM
 
DrDooby

Great read - probably most insightful I´ve read from a - currently former - GM thus far. Keep up the great work. Unfortunately for BP readers, this may not last all too long if new job opportunities present themselves (and they should certainly be enhanced by outstanding articles like this one). Or are you fulltime into a new career in sports writing ?

Jul 30, 2012 12:17 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks for the kind words. I am happy to hear that you found it informative.

I added Baseball Prospectus to my daily routine because I have always liked the product (used it for over a decade), and respect the people involved. I'm a big fan of Kevin Goldstein and have been since he broke into the game, and have met so many good people affiliated with the site at functions while I have been on the Advisory Board. Joe Hamrahi gets things done and both he and Ben Lindbergh have great vision for the site.

Regarding the future, honestly, I enjoy looking into opportunities and this is yet another one. I love the game and the people who work within it. This is a fun platform for me, as I am so immersed in baseball and I look forward to contributing to a really good product.

Jul 30, 2012 14:23 PM
 
rhettdb2005

Fantastic article; many thanks for it.

Jul 30, 2012 12:25 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks for reading it, and for being a BP fan

Jul 30, 2012 14:32 PM
 
BP staff member Ian Miller
BP staff

This is like getting handed the keys to the kingdom, Dan. There's so much insight in here that I know I'm going to be bookmarking it and coming back to it for a long, long time.

Welcome!

Jul 30, 2012 16:26 PM
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, Ian. Just bring the keys back before it's too late as I would like to get some sleep tonight!

Jul 31, 2012 17:30 PM
 
Pat Folz

This piece is awesome, and thank you so much for sharing!

On the off chance you're still reading the comments, I have a couple of questions:
1)A couple of the metrics you mentioned you use, percentage of RBI opportunities converted and first pitch strike percentage: I'm really curious how you used these. Did you find players converting RBI% at a high (or low) rate continued that through the season? Or is it more of a way to identify players who are under/overvalued by traditional stats? (My understanding is that the year-to-year correlation of that stat is pretty low, but I'm willing to be told I'm wrong)

And for first pitch strike %, higher is probably better but game theory would suggest that you'd want it to be less than 100%, or else hitters would know something hittable is coming right away. Is there an 'optimum' value you look for? Or more generally, how would a metric like that be used in player evaluation?

If those details are trade secrets, I understand :)

2)More of a nuts-and-bolts question: How does the 40 man roster limit work exactly? Is there a deadline, like every day at midnight they do the final addition/subtraction tally and you have to have <= 40 players on the roster by then? Or is it more instantaneous, like if a deal would put you over 40 players it cannot be processed until another move is made? And if it's like that, is there some order in which you have to submit transactions in order for it to go through? Also, what happens if a team DOES go over? I assume someone (presumably the most recent addition) is ineligible, but does the team also get fined/otherwise penalized?

At any rate, thanks for taking the time to write the piece and read the comments!

Jul 30, 2012 18:11 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

1) In regards to RBI Opportunities, I always felt that it dug a little deeper in to a traditional stat and you have to score to win. I like it because it tells you who gets the most opportunities and who converts from each base and overall. A player can have a deceptively high RBI total but a suspect conversion rate. There are a couple guys in the top ten among conversions right now that might surprise people.

When looking to add players I always wanted to see how a guy was doing in this category and keep my expectations realistic.

2) MLB has a system available to very team that keeps everyone's under control (40 man) situation. Once you make a move and before you announce it, you need to get the move into the system. It is instantaneous. If you go over because of a purchase to the 40-man, signing a free agent, reinstating a disabled list player, or acquiring a player, that's when clubs have to designate a player currently on the 40 for assignment.

As a result, you never have a 41st player, except for the players who are on the 60-day DL or Restricted lIst.

Hopefully, this answers your question.

Jul 31, 2012 18:12 PM
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Sorry, forgot to answer regarding First Pitch Strikes...

Just want guys to get ahead on a better than average rate, especially relievers because them pitching from behind is a concoction destined for failure. I like to see starters get ahead because if they have solid to above average secondary stuff they can then utilize it to get guys out.

Jul 31, 2012 18:18 PM
 
Pat Folz

Wow, thank you for such detailed responses! It's very interesting to see how a professional uses such tools. Looking forward to your next piece!

Aug 01, 2012 00:11 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

I think you would be surprised to see how many different tools people within the sport use, many of them you visit quite often. It's like a group of great chefs in that they utilize many of the same cooking items but make different recipes with them.

Aug 01, 2012 18:10 PM
 
zwoodill

Very probably the best article I've read on BP. Welcome, Dan!

Jul 30, 2012 18:50 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

I appreciate the kind words. Thanks for the welcome.

Did your favorite team improve their club?

Jul 31, 2012 18:04 PM
 
dcorr82

Great article Dan. I felt like you touched on some points mentioned here at the BP event in KC but this article really goes into depth the complexity of the trade deadline. Much appreciated and look forward to future articles.

Derek,
Fellow DePaul alum.

Jul 30, 2012 19:33 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Thanks, fellow DePaul alum Derek!

I did touch on a couple of these items at the BP event in Kansas City, good memory!

We appreciate your loyal following of Baseball Prospectus.

Jul 31, 2012 18:01 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Welcome to BP! It's nice to see a take inside the White Sox front office. Though I'm a Cubs fan, circa 1990 when I was in middle school, I did a nonprofit cable show called "Talk Baseball" and was fortunate enough to get an interview with Larry Himes at the old Comiskey Park. I remember Mr. Himes and the White Sox treated me and my family so well (tickets to the game, etc.) that I had to get past the "Cubs fans hate the White Sox" thing.

So, some questions... in hindsight, Belcher and Baldwin's numbers were tolerable but not great after their acquisitons. Are there any anecdotes about what they did in the clubhouse?

Also, perhaps for another article, can you talk a bit about what it was like for you and how it affected your role when the White Sox went to the new Comiskey Park? Did it affect player evaluation at all? Did better facilities change things?

Thanks

Jul 30, 2012 20:52 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Good to hear that Larry and the White Sox were good to you at that time, and glad to hear that you were able to enjoy a game at the Baseball Palace of the World. Larry is a good guy, and was instrumental in turning around the club.

What middle school did you attend?

We decided that Belcher would not be in the rotation during the 1993 Toronto LCS, and Tim accepted the role and was brilliant in relief one day to give us a chance to win. Just an absolute great pro and a winner.

We didn't think Baldwin would be able to start Game 3 of the 2000 LDS, and I was actually with him 90 minutes before the game in Seattle. He took the ball despite being in a lot of pain and gave us a strong performance in an elimination game. Always a great teammate, he brought a solid confidence to the Dodgers and competed well.

My role was no different when we moved to the new Comiskey Park, but the entire organization benefited from having new facilities after making it work in a 90-year old ballpark across the street. Bo Jackson would have never signed with us as a free agent without the new park because the great ChiSox trainer Herm Schneider was able to secure a cutting-edge SwimEx machine in the clubhouse to aid Bo's rehab.

Our offices and clubhouse area were such a great addition to our daily efforts. I loved the old park, but we were better off on the south side of 35th.

Jul 31, 2012 17:42 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Yeah I went to a few White Sox games after that, both at the old Comiskey and the new one. I really didn't like the new one that much because, if you had seats behind home plate, each pop up to first base looked like a home run. I was at the game with the Jack McDowell vs Mark Whiten brawl.

I started at St. Luke's in River Forest, then went to Edison in Wheaton for middle school. I started high school at Wheaton Central (Red Grange, Jim/John Belushi) then went to the Illinois Mathematics and Science Academy in Aurora.

I like that tidbit about Bo Jackson. He'd be a real interesting guy to meet face to face. A lot of athletes forced to retire early because of injury, I'd imagine, would go into a pretty bad depression yet he keeps spending time with charities, doing All Star Softball games, etc.

Jul 31, 2012 22:56 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

The Whiten/McDowell fight, was followed by Robin Ventura's defining moment for that White Sox period, when he went after the Jays' catcher later in the game in a home plate collision, sticking up for his teammate.

Know your area really well, as I grew up in the Chicago area, and got out that way quite a bit.

Bo Jackson is easily the greatest athlete I have ever seen, extraordinary ability. I couldn't believe his talent when he was in the minors and with the Royals, then got to know him well (actually was the point guy recruiting and signing him) with the White Sox. A great guy with an exceptional family. Charisma and a great teammate.

Aug 01, 2012 07:47 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I vaguely remember the Ventura collision. Was that the play he broke his leg?

I love Chicago though I'm in Denver now. I went to Wrigley last year on Memorial Day for my 35th birthday. As nice of a park as Coors is, I had a blast at Wrigley and forgot how it seems the seats just slope down to the field like a little league game.

I liked Bo, but mostly because his "Bo Knows" baseball/football card for Score was pretty pricey. I really like what I've seen since though.

On a tangent, my high school has only had one player drafted. John Turlais went, I believe in the 8th round, to the Pirates in 1992. He had a neat deal where he went to Harvard for the fall and winter and played baseball in the spring and summer. Never made the major leagues but he did become a lawyer. My JV baseball team was pretty star-studded intellectually my junior year. We had the cofounder of Youtube, the founder of OkCupid and one of the early employees of PayPal... but hey, at least I batted third :)

Aug 01, 2012 19:27 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Belcher was one of my APBA favorites too. Gained a bit of an affinity for him after the '88 World Series.

Jul 31, 2012 23:00 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Just a terrific competitor and a great teammate. Lot of respect for Tim.

Aug 01, 2012 07:43 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I think my future fantasy draft strategy revolved around players like Belcher. Draft some position-scarce hitters, then get a lot of unflashy but solid ERA and WHIP pitchers with a good K/9 like Belcher. Later, those types became Jon Lieber and Darryl Kile and these days, Ted Lilly and Jake Peavy.

Aug 01, 2012 17:57 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

As a great scout once told me, there is considerable value in showing up and doing your job consistently well.

Aug 01, 2012 18:11 PM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I'd typed up another few comments but it looks like they didn't make it through the system. I'll retype tonight.

Aug 01, 2012 18:27 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

I tried to build my fantasy pitching staff that way to mitigate injury risk. In terms of the mid 90s, I cringed when people would draft a Pedro Martinez not knowing how long he'd be healthy for. Usually I'd draft well hitter-wise that I could always trade up if needed.

Aug 01, 2012 19:23 PM
rating: 0
 
ScottyB

I'm curious. When dealing with established major-league players, how much more information (and what kinds of different information) is gleaned with an in-the-ballpark scout versus looking at their major league stats and watching the game on TV?

From my naive perspective, in-person scouting is vitally important further away from the majors, but less important with established MLBers.

Jul 31, 2012 07:30 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Dan Evans
BP staff

Nothing replaces the observations of a solid evaluator, especially someone who has been covering Major League games for an extended period. I love watching games on TV like everyone on this site, but there are things that you just cannot see like late life, defensive positioning, defensive jumps, the velocity off the bat, and quickness.

In the perfect world, I would like to attend the game and then review it on-line or off a DVR to get a second look and grab replays and the CF camera.

Also, you get so much from pre-game preparation if you're working hard. So beneficial.

In-person scouting is important at every level, because by the time the game comes on TV, a good scout has already been watching a guy for more than two and one-half hours. Plus, the info you gain between innings is really valuable if you know what to look for.

Jul 31, 2012 17:48 PM
 
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