CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/25)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Adrian ... (07/26)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: Ever Wo... (07/28)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/26)

July 26, 2012

BP Unfiltered

The Best Trade Rumor Yet

by Ben Lindbergh

From a recent article by long-time ​Cincinnati Enquirer​ columnist Paul Daughterty:

"One Reds insider said a straight-up Ondrusek-for-Victorino deal was nixed by The Club."

First, some facts:

Victorino is 31 years old. Ondrusek is 27 years old. 
Victorino will be a free agent after the 2012 season. Ondrusek will be a free agent after the 2016 season.
Victorino is making $9.5 million this season. Ondrusek is making $492,500.

And now, some numbers:

Ondrusek, career WARP: -0.2
Victorino, career WARP: 21.1

Ondrusek, 2012 WARP: -0.1
Victorino, 2012 WARP: 1.6

You fathom the facts. You know the numbers. And so I ask you, dear reader: Do you nix, or do you not nix?

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here

11 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

ttt

Well, you don't want to upset Drew Stubbs.

Jul 26, 2012 05:56 AM
rating: 2
 
jrbdmb

Not nix. Especially this year, the Reds may look back and regret the day they turned down an extra win or two.

Jul 26, 2012 09:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

Shane Victorino's well-known distaste for Cincinnati chili likely played a role.

Jul 26, 2012 10:10 AM
 
dREaDS Fan

Reds should pull the trigger on that trade based on Big O's pitching Wednesday night alone!

Jul 26, 2012 11:09 AM
rating: 0
 
pobothecat

The chance to get a natural lead off hitter and consistent production in CF for the final two months of a year in which in they have the best shot at a pennant in what, a decade? Wow.

Jul 26, 2012 11:30 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

What makes you think Baker would bat Victorino leadoff? Baker would probably bat him second because that's where he bats in Philadelphia.

Jul 26, 2012 13:07 PM
rating: 2
 
Hendo

Without even stepping outside his office, Walt Jocketty may have proved that there's at least one greater fool than Ruben Amaro.

Jul 26, 2012 12:41 PM
rating: 0
 
Dire Straits

How much is a win worth? The projections say Cinci currently has a >90% chance of making the playoffs. After that, face it, it's a crapshoot no matter who is in CF.

The stats say to expect roughly 1 win more with Victorino around. That's assuming continued availability.

The salary numbers say to expect ~$2M additional expense.

Clubhouse chemistry is unpredictable but must be considered. Of course that's less unpredictable for the GM.

Bottom line, it's not a no-brainer. I'd keep my $2M and maybe look around for a different CF upgrade trade, but I wouldn't be critical of a club that DID the trade, either.

Jul 26, 2012 12:41 PM
rating: 4
 
fatted

But you agree that they need a CF? What will your opinion be on Aug. 1st if they haven't done anything?

Jul 26, 2012 15:08 PM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

It's possible when he was hit by a pitch on the 23rd and lost feeling in his arm, there were some health concerns. He's performed well since though.

Jul 26, 2012 13:09 PM
rating: 0
 
Schere

Well, let's not ignore that Ondrusek is projected to be worth 0.1 WARP not just this year, but each year for the time that he's under team control. So, that totally changes things.

Jul 27, 2012 14:08 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/25)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Adrian ... (07/26)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: Ever Wo... (07/28)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/26)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Framing Decisions Around...
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: TINO Does Arizona, 2015
Pebble Hunting: The Case For Shaming the Cub...
Every Team's Moneyball: Texas Rangers: Short...
Every Team's Moneyball: Atlanta Braves: Shor...
Prospectus Feature: All Spin Is Not Alike
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: The Most Important Player ...

MORE FROM JULY 26, 2012
Premium Article In A Pickle: The Story Of Jason Kendall's Co...
The Process: When Will We Know Who Won the 1...
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Rating the Fantasy ...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Starting Pitchers for 7/26/12
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Thursday, July 26
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, July 26
What You Need to Know: Thursday, July 26

MORE BY BEN LINDBERGH
2012-07-28 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Scutaro to San Fran
2012-07-26 - Premium Article Overthinking It: Upgrading From Nothing
2012-07-26 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 7...
2012-07-26 - BP Unfiltered: The Best Trade Rumor Yet
2012-07-26 - BP Unfiltered: Adrian Beltre's Even Bigger F...
2012-07-25 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 6...
2012-07-24 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Dempster the Brave?
More...

MORE BP UNFILTERED
2012-07-30 - BP Unfiltered: Rex Hudler, Misanthrope
2012-07-28 - BP Unfiltered: Jerry Blevins, Non-Vulture
2012-07-28 - BP Unfiltered: Ever Wondered What it Would B...
2012-07-26 - BP Unfiltered: The Best Trade Rumor Yet
2012-07-26 - BP Unfiltered: Adrian Beltre's Even Bigger F...
2012-07-26 - BP Unfiltered: Mario Guerrero’s Scoring Pr...
2012-07-23 - BP Unfiltered: Franklin Morales Fools Nobody
More...