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July 26, 2012

Value Picks

Starting Pitchers for 7/26/12

by Paul Sporer

This time next week, the trade deadline will have passed and we could have some new roles opened up for guys. This week’s VP includes some speculation that could be wiped away by trades, so stay tuned.

Arriving
I have fallen for Carlos Villanueva (Yahoo! 18%, ESPN 13%, CBS 46%) on more than one occasion, so forgive me for not diving headlong this time around and waiting a bit to include him here. He has always been a major league talent; that isn’t the question. The question is whether or not he can withstand the rigors of starting on a long-term basis. It has only been four starts, so we still don’t have that answer, but you can’t wait 10-12 starts because you will miss out on these kinds of guys.

In nearly equal samples this year, both small, Villanueva has actually been much better as a starter. He has a 2.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, and 3.3 K/BB in 23 1/3 innings in the rotation and a 3.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 1.7 K/BB in 33 1/3 innings as a reliever. The Jays have an offense potent enough to back him, so he carries some nice win potential too.

Josh Collmenter (Yahoo! 11%, ESPN 10%, CBS 18%) started the season in the rotation and performed horribly, costing him his job and allowing for the emergence of Wade Miley. He went to the bullpen and excelled (1.45 ERA and 18 Ks in 18 2/3 innings) from May through mid-June. Trevor Bauer didn’t take off as planned, creating an opportunity for Collmenter to get back into the rotation, and he has excelled. Since June 22, he has four starts and two long-relief appearances to cover implosions by Bauer and Daniel Hudson.

The numbers in that span have been excellent: 1.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 3.0 K/BB in 29 innings. The big difference in this year’s Collmenter is that he is missing bats at an above-average clip. Even in the ugly sample that started the season, he still had a 7.9 K/9. Meanwhile, the walks are up from last year’s awesome 1.6 BB/9, but he is still toting a sharp 2.2 BB/9, so I’m definitely buying in on Collmenter much more this time around.

Returning
I was clamoring all year for Alexi Ogando (Yahoo! 31%, ESPN 5%, CBS 23%) to rejoin the rotation in Texas, where he flourished a year ago. When he finally got inserted into the rotation, however, he promptly got hurt after three shutout innings. With their rotation in flux as they deal with injuries and lack of performance, the Rangers have said they could put Ogando back into the rotation again soon. The team has also been rumored in just about any trade involving a starting pitcher, so things are very unsettled there outside of Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison.