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July 12, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Future Game Notes: The World Roster

A few notes on a few players who happened to force my pen to hit the pages of my roster sheet during the 2012 Futures Game. As usual, the notes are presented with minimal narrative interference.

2B Jean Segura: One of his legs is shorter than the other; struggles with physical health; quick swing; big/strong hands; good pop; uses opposite field well; actions for shortstop; better fit for second base; major league profile; depends on health/consistent reps; second-division type; role 5; should spell his name Gene or Jeans.

SS Jurickson Profar: Called home run before the game; near-elite pure hitter; remarkable bat speed; instincts for barrel-to-ball actions; recognizes pitches very well from both sides of the plate; ultra-competitive; followed Oscar Taveras in batting practice group; visible effort to match the insanely impressive BP session by Taveras; was talking to Peter Gammons during one of his cage cycles who opined that Profar was the top prospect in the game; I agreed; would have agreed regardless of which player he named because he’s Peter Gammons; Profar executed in game action; can shorten swing/alter approach; plays up to the level of competition around him; wouldn’t drown in majors now; shows easy power; 50/55 projection on tool at floor; role 7 player at peak; All-Star at major league level.

OF Oscar Taveras: The best pure hitter in the minors; Profar only ahead of him based on all-around game/defensive position; hit tool is easy plus, projects to be near elite; future batting title contender; swing is so fast that it’s difficult to follow the bat plane through the zone; it’s violent, but it’s violence with a plan and a director; power is near elite as well; could hit 30+ homers at the majors at his peak; excellent pull-side pop; hit most impressive BP home run I’ve seen in recent memory: dead center shot under the scoreboar

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40 comments have been left for this article.

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abwinkel (Prague)

Nice write-up Jason, but I was really hoping you'd cover the celebrity softball game. Did you get to meet Bo? I think you and Kevin should devote one full podcast to the awesomeness that is Bo Jackson. On a serious note, what did you think of Myers? How do you think his power will translate to the bigs? Thanks as always.

Jul 12, 2012 03:02 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I'll discuss Myers in the next installment: U.S. rosters

Jul 12, 2012 06:18 AM

bmmolter

When's that one hitting the site?

Jul 12, 2012 07:49 AM

rating: 0

comeonletsgo

Great stuff, nothing better than these kinds of notes on big time prospects. Am I reading it right that Profar's power will, at least, be average to a tick above? What do you think his power ceiling is? Thank you!

Jul 12, 2012 03:21 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

50/55 range. Maybe a little more if everything clicks. He's going to hit 10-15+ a season, with a ton of doubles.

Jul 12, 2012 06:19 AM

19braves77

What about Marte with the Diamondbacks ?

Jul 12, 2012 05:58 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I didn't take many notes on him. I was too busy day dreaming about Taveras's BP session.

Jul 12, 2012 06:20 AM

macman0187

This is definitely my ignorance, but what is a 'role 5' player, or a 'role 7'?

Jul 12, 2012 06:26 AM

rating: 2

Jason Parks

BP staff

Just a broad stroke of definition for future ceiling, with ~5 being a regular, ~6 being a first-division, ~7 being an all-star, 8 being the best player in the game, etc.

Jul 12, 2012 06:44 AM

bmmolter

Can you define a first-division and second-division? is it simply the difference between a regular on the yankees/sox and a regular on the pirates/A's?

Jul 12, 2012 07:51 AM

rating: 1

philly

Could you go into specifics a bit more about what's keeping Segura from being a first division regular? The tools package I imagine from most reports - actually even yours here - seems big enough to be a quality first division type as a MI. Is it that he lacks the one standout tool to hang a bigger ceiling on? Concern that he'll lack the consistency to turn the good all around base of tools into that type of performance at the MLB level?

Jul 12, 2012 06:52 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

It's just a solid package of tools, but nothing that grabs you and shakes you into first-division belief. I like the bat speed, but it's not an elite hit tool, and I like the pop, but he's not going to hit for a ton of power at the highest level, and I like the defensive skills, but he's not going to be an above average defender at shortstop, and I like the athleticism, but he struggles to stay healthy. It's just not a loud profile for me.

Jul 12, 2012 07:19 AM

philly

Thanks Jason.

No need to belabor a subjective distinction between "first division" and "second division", but I think you may be underrating the value of a broad based performer. It's easy to imagine quietly good in a lot of areas producing more value than loudly good in a single area.

This would be less the case if we're talking about a corner player, but for a MI the bar - at least offensively - is pretty modest. It looks like both 2B and SS are about 255/310/375. Even with the "quiet" scouting reports it's not hard to imagine Segura providing average defense and adding 20 pts to that average slash line.

That would be good for, what, the 8th best player in MLB at his position? Again, whether that's a low level 1st division starter or a good 2d division starter isn't a meaningful distinction to me. But that's a quality starter on a playoff team, even if he's not one of the first players you think of as pushing that team towards the playoffs.

Jul 12, 2012 10:03 AM

rating: 0

jj0501

Good speculation on Bonilla's injury. We are dealing with teenagers here, anything can happen.

Jul 12, 2012 07:00 AM

rating: 0

jfranco77

What is Lindor's speed like? 50-55? Or is he a burner?

Jul 12, 2012 07:13 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

He's fluid and quick, but not a burner. I'd put his speed in the solid-average range, and I would suggest it plays up on the field because of the quickness and the instincts.

Jul 12, 2012 07:16 AM

PeterBNYC

Jason: Nobody does it better. Thanks and regards,

Jul 12, 2012 07:25 AM

rating: 1

SidsGraphs

Great write ups can't wait for the U.S.
Is Taveras a top 10 prospect or is there just a little too much refinement that is still needed?

Jul 12, 2012 07:37 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

For me, he's a top 5 prospect, and the best pure offensive force in the minors. I'd rank him above Myers. Profar gets the slight edge because of his defensive skill-set at a premium position.

Jul 12, 2012 07:39 AM

Klochner

I know Arcia has had a lot of trouble hitting lefties. Did you see anything to suggest that issue might improve or keep him from reaching his potential?

Jul 12, 2012 07:56 AM

rating: 0

Scott44

On Profar's future power grade, and in general, how much do park factors also have to be taken in? I mean if he plays half his games in Texas, 10-15 could easily be 20, or is that not a fair statement?

Jul 12, 2012 08:28 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

It's just scouting in a vacuum. Park factors don't play a role in my reports.

Jul 12, 2012 10:29 AM

CJNC1963

Given that Cristhian Bethancourt is still only 20 years old and has been pushed aggressively by the Braves do you think he has the chance to develop into a decent hitting catcher?

Jul 12, 2012 08:54 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Sure, he has a chance. If he wants to work hard he has the potential to hit enough to stick.

Jul 12, 2012 10:32 AM

justiniodiddly

Hey Jason, Do you see Carlos Sanchez as a first division regular, and if so what position? Seems a little unusual to see a guy basically split time 50/50 between 2B/SS. Impressive what he's done with the stick in high A at 19 though.

Jul 12, 2012 09:06 AM

rating: 0

SC

"Fires hips very well" is going to enter my general daily lexicon. Ideally when discussing women, but there's lots of applications.

Jul 12, 2012 09:18 AM

rating: 0

timber

When do the US team notes come out? I'm hoping no later than tomorrow...

Jul 12, 2012 11:04 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

On scouting trip. Have to be on Tuesday. I'll try to throw something together sooner...

Jul 12, 2012 12:36 PM

newsense

Did you see Arcia bat against lefties? His stats show a big L/R split.

Jul 12, 2012 11:36 AM

rating: 0

UofIx3

You referred to Taveras as a "complete three hole hitter." Will his limited plate discipline allow him to reach that level?

Jul 12, 2012 12:32 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I don't think he has limited plate discipline; I think he's very aggressive. He knows what he wants and he tries to hit it. He will need to refine the approach, but he just turned 20 and he's killing the ball at a high level. I think he will be just fine.

Jul 12, 2012 12:39 PM

nalex83

Tweets from 2017: #FreeJesusAguilar

Jul 12, 2012 12:41 PM

rating: 0

ttt

For Flores, what do you mean by "not a great athlete, but physical"? Does it mean he's not a great athlete, but he does a good job of using his physical attributes to play baseball? Thanks for the great read!

Jul 12, 2012 13:14 PM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Dead on.

Jul 12, 2012 13:16 PM

Screamingliner

Great article, thanks. Stuff like this helps me survive this inhuman All-Star break.

Jul 12, 2012 13:57 PM

rating: 2

Gobroks

When you say Wilmer Flores is a Role 5 type, is that dependent on his ability to stick at 3B, or are you saying that the bat is good enough that he should be a role 5 player even if he moves down the defensive spectrum?

Jul 13, 2012 00:27 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

At 3B

Jul 13, 2012 08:40 AM

rocket8184

I absolutely love the way you write. And yes I had to comment after getting as far as the third write up. Just a beautiful way to describe how awesome Profar and Tavares can be/are.

Jul 13, 2012 00:47 AM

rating: 1

Lloyd Cole

I'm very late reading this, and plenty of people have said so already, but this is fantastic stuff. Thanks.

Jul 13, 2012 19:24 PM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Many thanks. I appreciate the comment.

Jul 14, 2012 08:45 AM

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<< Previous Article

In A Pickle: On the Hu... (07/12)

<< Previous Column
Prospects Will Break Y... (07/11)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (07/17)

Next Article >>
On the Beat: The Great... (07/12)

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