CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Don't Yo... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (06/30)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/13)
Next Article >>
The Lineup Card: Nine ... (07/05)

July 5, 2012

Transaction Analysis

El Caballo Rides Out East

by R.J. Anderson

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

BOSTON RED SOX
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Released RHP Bobby Jenks. [7/3]

A once-clever addition meets the cleaver.

When the White Sox non-tendered Jenks after the 2010 season, the three main reasons speculated were, in order: a bloated ERA, a high-maintenance personality, and injuries. Boston sensed the same and jumped at a splendid buy-low opportunity. Jenks signed with the Red Sox and began jumping onto operating tables.

Accusing a player of malingering or poor conditioning is a serious charge. Yet Jenks’ background invites skepticism, even where is proves erroneous. Jenks’ issues didn’t come from a bottle, but rather from a calcified ligament in his back. Doctors had to wait on a pulmonary embolism in his lungs to clear before they could repair the ligament. Afterward, the doctors had to open Jenks up for a second time in order to correct life-threatening complications from the first surgery. A nasty tale made worse because all the while Jenks suffered from a biceps injury. If Jenks feels thankful then he should.

The Red Sox might feel a different level of thankfulness. Although their speculative risk bombed, they do save $1.5 million of Jenks $6 million by negotiating a buyout. This is one of those situations where both sides should rest happier knowing that it could have been much worse.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Claimed OF-R Darnell McDonald off waivers from the Red Sox. [7/4]

Designated RHP Chris Schwinden for assignment. [7/4]

Acquired RHP Chad Qualls from the Phillies for a player to be named later or cash considerations. [7/1]
Designated INF-R Matt Antonelli for assignment. [7/1]

The newest Yankees are two right-handers who can contribute with proper supervision. The Phillies used Qualls as his other recent teams did; outright ignoring that he is no longer a capable two-way reliever. Where Qualls can provide value is by facing a high quotient of right-handed batters, especially in situations where a groundball is the desired outcome.

If Joe Girardi is attentive enough, the Yankees could milk utility from Qualls. Otherwise, forget about it.

A similar amount of shrewdness can turn McDonald from a low-market reserve outfielder into a useful southpaw-masher. McDonald’s multi-year TAv against lefties is at .287, but he provides negative value against righties. The key, like with Qualls, is careful planning and vision. Girardi’s management of Raul Ibanez this season suggests that he is up for the tasks.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Designated LHP Brian Fuentes for assignment. [7/3]
Reinstated RHP Bartolo Colon from the 15-day disabled list. [7/3]

Fuentes made headlines last May by complaining about then-manager Bob Geren, who had requested Fuentes enter non-save situations that other managers daren’t ask of their closers. If Fuentes is worried about remaining effective at this stage of his career, he should have been more concerned with whom he faced rather than when he faced them.

Oakland used Fuentes against right-handed batters at a similar rate to his past teams. No surprise, as it comes with the territory of being a generalist southpaw rather than a specialist. Fuentes handled righties just fine throughout most of his career, but lately his platoon splits have called for an adjusted role. A gander at Fuentes’ True Average-against tallies reveals that he is 21-points better against lefties than righties (.238 versus .259).  How does that stack up against other left-handed specialists? Take a look at an old chart:

Name

% 2011 PA vs. LHB

2011

Multi

Randy Choate

72

.155

.178

Trever Miller

67

.292

.236

Tim Byrdak

65

.248

.241

Sergio Escalona

64

.234

.235

Boone Logan

64

.293

.264

Joe Paterson

61

.226

.226

Scott Elbert

54

.191

.208

George Sherrill

54

.226

.213

Josh Spence

54

.204

.204

Bill Bray

52

.221

.219

Dontrelle Willis

18

.149

.191

Granted, turning Fuentes into an effective reliever is not as simple as limiting his exposure to righties. At least, not if left-handers continue to torch Fuentes, as they have this season. Presumably, teams will pass on claiming Fuentes from waivers and wait instead for him to become a free agent. When that happens, expect a team to show interest in the veteran southpaw. If he returns to form against southpaws, he could be a useful enough piece—assuming the manager keeps an open line of communication with him.

ATLANTA BRAVES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Signed RHP Ben Sheets to a minor-league deal. [7/1]

We last saw Sheets in July 2010. He threw 6 2/3 innings against the Red Sox before having his season ended due by right elbow surgery. Sheets did not land a job for the 2011 season and had seemingly hung up the cleats before showing up on Atlanta’s bullpen mound. One of the league’s better starters when healthy, Sheets is an interesting gamble for the Braves. Whatever Atlanta saw in the bullpen session has them at least thinking about the possibility, not probability, of Sheets contributing this season in some shape or another. As easy as it is to by cynical, Sheets is worth rooting for. 

MIAMI MARLINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquired 1B-R Carlos Lee from the Astros for 3B-R Matt Dominguez and RHP Rob Rasmussen

In a surprising twist, the Astros found a taker for Lee just days after he spurned the Dodgers by exercising his limited no-trade clause. With Lee’s desire to stay in Houston apparent, the Astros’ only chance to complete a trade required foregoing the intermediary—in this case, finding an interested party among the 16 non-blocked teams. Although the Marlins and their single-digit playoff odds are not the textbook definition of a buyer, the addition makes sense for reasons on and off the field.

Lee joins a club in desperate need of production from the cold corner. Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez’s season-long slump means that Lee’s .286/.336/.412 line, while below average for the position, is an improvement. Lee’s numbers this season (and in recent years) bear a resemblance to Sanchez’s 2010 season (.259/.333/.416); the key difference between the two, beyond the obvious, is Sanchez’s superior defense.

Ostensibly, Sanchez will head to the minors. This development could prove to be a positive for Sanchez the player, but it might force the Marlins to move on without him this offseason. Sanchez entered the season with two years and 62 days of service time. The projected super-two cutoff is two years and 134 days, according to an internal study conducted by an agency earlier this season.  Sanchez spent 22 days in the minors, meaning he stayed up long enough over the season’s first three months to break that threshold. He becomes a non-tender candidate.

The Marlins are only required to pay Lee the prorated minimum over the remainder of the season. (Houston’s eagerness to send over the rest speaks to their desire to move Lee and acquire a better return.) While Lee is no long-term answer, or even a short-term stud, he may help Miami sustain the goodwill created over the offseason. This move proves, if nothing else, the Marlins’ willingness to upgrade and max out their likelihood of reaching the postseason, even when the odds are stacked against them. 

R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here

7 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Don't Yo... (07/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (06/30)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/13)
Next Article >>
The Lineup Card: Nine ... (07/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of September 12-1...
The Week in Quotes: September 8-14
In A Pickle: How To Lose Lots of One-Run Gam...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 1...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 15, 2014
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: September 15, 2014
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Starving Young Royals, Bat...

MORE FROM JULY 5, 2012
The Lineup Card: Nine All-Star Snubs
Premium Article Future Shock: Don't You Forget About Me
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Is Elliot Johnson for Real?
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Thome Trade Tests A...
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Thursday, July 5
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, July 5
What You Need to Know: Thursday, July 5

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2012-07-09 - BP Unfiltered: Erick Aybar Takes an Extra Ba...
2012-07-06 - Premium Article Painting the Black: Tiptoeing Around Landmin...
2012-07-05 - Premium Article What the Contenders Need
2012-07-05 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: El Caballo Rides Out E...
2012-07-03 - BP Unfiltered: Brandon Phillips and Context
2012-07-01 - BP Announcements: Two New Stats Added
2012-06-30 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Orioles Get America's ...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2012-07-19 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Arizona's Bauer Goes O...
2012-07-17 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Orioles Lose Their...
2012-07-13 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Wages of Edwin
2012-07-05 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: El Caballo Rides Out E...
2012-06-30 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Orioles Get America's ...
2012-06-24 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Youkilis Changes Sox
2012-06-20 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Tampa Suffers Another ...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-07-17 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Orioles Lose Their...