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June 21, 2012

Value Picks

Starting Pitchers for 6/21/12

by Paul Sporer

Plenty of new names in this week’s Value Picks as well as some returning names in some new categories.

Last Chance
I meant to recommend Doug Fister (Yahoo! 59%, ESPN 70%, CBS 86%) last week when his percentages were a good bit lower, but I forgot to write it down when I thought of him. Now he has six shutout innings added to his ledger in his return from the disabled list, and he is quickly being scooped up. That said, he is still around in more than 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 30 percent of ESPN leagues, numbers which are way too high. The Tigers appear to have tapped into a reservoir of Fister’s talent that has yielded more strikeouts, resulting in a 7.1 K/9 as a Tiger in 111 innings compared to his 5.2 K/9 in 378 with Seattle.

Matchup Play
Left-handed batters have long plagued Justin Masterson (Yahoo! 45%, ESPN 45%, CBS 71%), which is why many were concerned that he would never really make it as a starter. His breakout season in 2011 quieted the critics some, but the gains were mostly against righties. He’s still dominating righties this year but not quite to the extent he did last year. Lefties, meanwhile, have jumped back over an 800 OPS against him, creating some maddening ups and downs.

In his three worst outings (8 ER at Seattle, 6 ER at Boston, 7 ER vs. Kansas City), lefties went 24-for-65 (.369) with 21 RBIs and 18 runs scored. Admittedly, it wasn’t all done against Masterson, but you get the point. Those teams ran out seven, five, and four lefties, respectively.

If you want to roster Masterson in shallower mixed leagues where he is still available, make sure you have a reserve roster so you can pick your spots. Any team trotting out four or more lefties should be avoided. On Wednesday, for instance, he crushed the Reds, who feature just two lefties. While both are prominent (Joey Votto and Jay Bruce), it is much easier for Masterson to traverse the lineup and work around them.

Get the Jump
VP favorite Felipe Paulino (Yahoo! 16%, ESPN 7%, CBS 50%) is headed back from the disabled list soon (scheduled for Monday, June 25), so now is the time to jump back on board before he hits everyone’s radar a la Fister. Paulino was masterful in his seven starts before hitting the disabled list (or re-hitting since he started the season there) with a 1.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, and 2.6 K/BB in 38 innings of work. He’s a perfect replacement for those of you who unfortunately just lost Brandon Beachy for the remainder of 2012.