I would like to nominate Shelby Miller.

Excellent piece, Jason. This may have been the best article you've written for BP so far. It takes bravery to dig down deep - my best to you as you continue to look within as well as outside yourself.

Also, as a Redbirds fan, I second the motion on Shelby Miller.

I think this could prove to be a very very interesting set of articles. I always welcome efforts to temper expectations about prospects as a way of getting a better handle on their value and role in both real and fantasy baseball.

Half of writing is 90% mental. Perhaps forcing a positive approach (Prospects That Will Cheer You Up? What Could Go Right?) would be a small step towards helping lift you out of your funk.

You're too talented to let yourself get sucked this low, and sometimes intellectually (meaning: purposefully, even if you don't feel like it) forcing your work into a different perspective can help improve the grander scheme as well.

I'm just saying.

Good article, by the by.

Joba Chamberlain
Jeff Clement
Chris Tillman
Chris Carter
Domonic Brown

I like the idea of not just looking prospects now but looking back at players that the we could all agree that failed to live up their projection (i.e. Andy Marte or Brandon Wood). Where did things go wrong? What did everyone avoid to look at?

This article is akin to an intervention. I love watching a Javy Baez and picturing Baez and Castro as the Jeter and A-Rod of the Cubs for the next 20 years. If they aren't I will find another duo somewhere else, maybe in the Indians or Padres systems. It's easier to sell dreams than dread is one of the most insightful things I have ever read. This is another great article and Bring Me the Head of sounds great. While I don't think I can be cured I will definitely read. I am not sure what it would be like to fall asleep without having thought at least three or four times in the day that when Billy Hamilton learns to be an average baserunner I am guaranteed 15 years of good baseball to watch. In 5 years he may be remembered as a cheap imitation of Herb Washington but right now I think he will bring so much joy to the world that he could solve the Euro debt crisis with notes he jots down during a rain delay.

"...the ultimate ceiling became the absolute truth." Absolutes are generally defecated upon by reality, and prospects are no different. As a Met fan whose baseball awareness began in the early 90s, I cannot help but read this and think of Gregg Jeffries, someone who had a pretty good career but is nevertheless thought of as a disappointment in retrospect. As far as contemporary players go, I'd be curious what thoughts you had in this regard about B.J. Upton.

Thanks, Jason.

Really well written and thoughtful article, Jason. Best wishes.

I am excited about this series. This, to me, is the most interesting piece of scouting. I love the dream of ceilings and all-stars and franchise changing talents. Yet so few prospects reach their ceilings. This seems especially true when that ceiling is All-Star level. So many prospects don't pan out at all. I'm very much looking forward to you examining what went wrong. Was it a flaw in the scouting or a flaw in the player or both? And why did one flaw mask the other? What the scouts overlooked or what they thought was there that wasn't? Just as interesting is what happened to the prospect. What tools (or lack thereof) are the root causes of failure to develop, much less blossom. This should be excellent.

Jason, asking for suggestions is, well, asking for it. I predict overwhelming response.

That said, please add Mike Montgomery to the list.

As a Red Sox fan, Clay Buchholz has always been a tease to me.

Most overhyped/underwhelming events I can remember:

1. Star Wars: Episode I
2. Sean Burroughs
3. The Matrix II+III

Please write about one of them.

From P.T. Anderson to Peckinpah ... nice.

Bring Me the Head of Cameron Maybin

Felix Pie
Brandon Larson
Kosuke Fukudome

At least north of the border, Travis Snider seems to fit the bill of the type of player you're talking about.

From the point until he was drafted until late 2010, Blue Jays fans wanted/hoped/expected for him to transform into the middle of the order, MVP-calibre slugger we were promised. At this point, however, most of us would be very happy if he could simply be an above average regular in left field.

How about an article on Tim Beckham? We all lionize the Rays' front office, but this was a colossal blunder. Hell, 11 of the next 12 players selected - and 16 of the next 20 - have at least made the majors. How did a guy everyone saw as a 5 tool stud at a premium position turn into such a bust?

Fernando Martinez and Adam Miller are two others.

Alex Gordon. Though he is certainly serviceable, why did the minor league wow never manifest?

How about Homer Bailey?

And also that Bryce Harper kid, whatever happened to him?

I've always been interested in the Luke Hochevar/Mike Pelfrey types. They're serviceable, even valuable, but every time I see them I think of their draft slots. Perhaps they were safe picks that turned into exactly what they were supposed to be. You can't say they were busts, really, but they might make for interesting discussion.

Wonderful article Jason.

It's perfect timing considering I have been pondering the very same question about Gordon Beckham. Here's a quy who is playing his third position of his short big league career, and not necessarilly because he failed at the first two. He's also a guy who showed flashes right away when he came up.

Beckham has not lived up to what he was going to be. But I have started to wonder if a second baseman with a great glove, shows a little pop, and a little hit is really a failure.

At what point do you draw the line between small sample size and a loss, or change, of talent? I'm asking because of Adrian Gonzalez. If you watched him at the plate right now, you'd never think he'd have the track record of a superstar. Has he always been off balance and falling into the plate when he swings? If you watched a prospect with that type of swing, what would you say?

Sorry for rambling. Thanks for doing what you do and I hope things settle down in your personal life.

I've never understood how Stephen Strasburg went from settling for SDSU to being uber-stud.
I know there was a big increase in velocity, but is there more to it?

Hey Jason, I think an age according to league prospect would be very informative.

A couple of names spring to mind with that:

Wilmer Flores

Aaron Hicks (especially pertinent as people think the ability to walk automatically equals the ability to hit)

Then going back a bit:

Joel Guzman (body develops, and not in a good way)

Andy Marte

I would prefer Dominic Brown, however, I am just happier than horse shit that you have stopped saying you can't write. Well done, that was Vertonghen shutting down Silva at White Hart.

This article could only have been written by Jason Parks, and I mean this as a compliment. Reading your recent work, I sense a film treatment in the works entitled "Divorce American League Style."

You could understand a lot about baseball by viewing it as a continual exercise in failure, differentially spaced across time.

As always I thoroughly enjoy your writing which is always entertaining on multiple levels.

The first two players that come to mind for me will betray my 80s-90s Orioles fandom: Arthur Rhodes and Jeffrey Hammonds.

Both players would seem to fit more in your "impossible expectations" category of players who went on to have solid, productive careers but who were hyped as much, much more.

In going to Hammonds' player page it was noted that at one point he was going to be the next Rickey Henderson. Clearly not -- and we should never have thought he would. But we did.

Rhodes was an all-star on multiple teams, but came up as an uber-hyped starter. So maybe something on failed starters who succeeded as relievers?

Of course there is also the tendency to believe that any top prospect who falls short of the Hall of Fame has failed to live up to expectations. I know that KG as well as yourself try to manage expectations, but perhaps that could be part of the series as well.

I look forward to reading these.

Please do something on the Son Of Maddon: Reid Brignac.

Great article, Jason. Having recently been through what you're going through, I can not only sympathize, but also assure you that it gets better. And as a recovering perfectionist, this one hit home:

"... but their gifts create a ceiling that even extreme accomplishment can’t satisfy."

Truth. Lastly, after requesting the heads of Perez, Banuelos, and Rasmus, I expected you to go for the low hanging fruit of a Freddy Garcia reference (even if he didn't quite fit the bill). Kudos for your self-restraint.

What about a stat lover's guy like Hank Blalock? Although, I guess you are looking for guys who still have a chance to pan out such as Dominic Brown and Brian Matusz.

I wish you the best, Jason, with the next chapters in your life. Thank you for sharing your grief in your special way.

In another matter, your referring to Lindor as not likely an all-star struck me as improbable, so I looked up all the top 50 prospects (Baseball America) who were position players and were within a year of Lindor's age for 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996, and 1994. There were only 11 such players. Seven of them, indeed, became all-stars: Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Andruw Jones, and A-Rod. "Franchise players" better describes 6 of those 7 than "all-stars". One of the non-all-stars might make an all-star game, yet: Kelly Johnson. Another occasionally has a good year, but is struggling to stay in the Majors: Casey Kotchman. Another is still active at 33, but has never been more than a fill-in for someone injured: Darnell McDonald. And there is Ben Davis, who similarly never panned out as a solid starter. This isn't meant to be proof or a criticism, just a fact finding mission.

I'd really like Pedro Alvarez, as one that hasn't been mentioned. Also, another vote for Domonic Brown.

As well, I just wanted to say that I hope you are OK, and that things work out for you.

I still get sad when I think about Chad Hermansen.

Good one.

How about a combo article -- what the Rangers thought they saw in Joaquin Arias and what they missed in the man they could have had instead, Robinson Cano. Simply a case of over- and underestimating a ceiling, or something more complex? Was it avoidable? Was it a 50-50 toss-up that just went the wrong way?

Keep up the great work.

What about Corey Patterson? He was supposed to be a future superstar that has basically been a 4th outfielder most of his career

What about a guy like Ra Dickey, who has surpassed the highest of expectations that people could've had for him when the mets signed him on a minor league deal 2 years ago

Matt LaPorta, Bobby Crosby, Dexter Fowler

Remarkable turnout. Tons of material for future articles. Many thanks. Participants of this site have been showing 80-grade #want lately. Stay gold, Ponyboy.

How about Dallas McPherson? Or was I the only guy who thought he would become great?

Excellent. The head understands that most prospects do not approach their supposed ceilings, but the heart struggles to reconcile.
I put forth Kyle Drabek, even before last week's pop.
Andrew Miller
Eric Anthony
Looking forward to the results.

Excellent read, Jason. It's work like this that makes me proud to call BP my new writing home, even if it is in a very different capacity. That said, I'm still an avid reader of the site as well, and would like to humbly suggest a few players who throw a bit of a wrinkle into things. I'd love to see you write about Brandon McCarthy,Colby Lewis and or Ryan Vogelsong. McCarthy interests me greatly because of his failure as a prospect, before basically reinventing himself and becoming a very good major league pitcher. The travels to Japan for both Lewis and Vogelsong have been fairly well covered, but revisiting them as prospects and their projections prior to leaving the states would interest me greatly.

How about an old-school Braves bust, Brad Komminsk?

I'd like to see things go the other way: guys who didn't get much pub as a prospect but exceeded their ceiling: Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Doug Fister, etc.

Am I too late to call for the head (or at least right arm) of Dellin Betances?

All those walks have increased my bloodlust to blood#want. He didn't do this last year; which is the fluke, and which is reality?

Another nod for the head... heart... achilles... whatever... of Pedro Alvarez. Brandon Wood is another good one. Maybe a contrast between Wood (who failed) and Howie Kendrick (who isn't winning multiple batting titles but has still been a valuable major leaguer).