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The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $6.86 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg ) |
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June 8, 2012 Weekly PlannerWeek 11I wish I would have had the intestinal fortitude to put Jarrod Parker in the “starts” last week; instead, I straddled the fence with a “consider” in light of his start against Texas, even though it was at home. He aced the test with seven no-hit innings before Michael Young broke it up to start off the eighth. He gets his former team on Saturday in Arizona against the Diamondbacks with the pitcher he was dealt for, Trevor Cahill, on the mound opposite him. In the National League, is Tim Lincecum no longer a “start”? He has already been stripped of “auto-start” status, but I left him as a “start” even with a date against Texas (it’s coming at home) because his first start of the week is in San Diego. While he walked one and struck out eight, he was pretty bland otherwise, allowing four runs in six innings. Pitchers are supposed to right the ship against the Padres, especially in PETCO Park, and even more so when you’re an elite talent.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Start Not a glitzy group of AL arms this week, but the headliners of Morrow and Lewis should excel in their pair of matchups. Morrow flashed that elite-level stuff that gets us so excited about his potential on Wednesday, but it was just a few weeks ago that he went a mere two-thirds of an inning and allowed six runs on five hits and three walks. Three shutouts and a 10 K performance in a fourth start later, however, and we see how great things can be when Morrow is rolling. Lewis and his homer-friendly ways can be a bit daunting in a pair of home starts, but he owns Houston with a 1.80 ERA in 40 career innings against them, so I am willing to take a chance that he can stifle the Diamondbacks as well. He isn’t walking anybody this year with an MLB-best 1.1 BB/9, leading to 6.7 K/BB—also an MLB-best.
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A look under the hood of Colby Lewis shows some troubling signs. He only just recently got his average fastball up above 88 (88.1) and it is getting pounded. Hugely negative pitch value on it vs great value in 2010 and decent last year. He has lost 1 mph on his slider and 2 mph on his curve. He is throwing the FB less, with more curves and changeups. The change has a negative run value. His slider is superb tho as his walk rate. That's saving him from being out trounced game in and out ... might only be a matter of time tho, no?