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March 14, 2012

Fantasy Beat

The Closer Matrix

by Jason Collette

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New Year’s Resolutions, diet plans, and closers all share one thing in common: a significant failure rate. Research by Ron Shandler of BasebalHQ.com shows that in recent history, the lowest failure rate of closers in a fantasy baseball season happened in 1999 when just 22 percent of drafted closers lost their job in a season. Since 1999, that rate has been anywhere from 22 percent to 59 percent. In other words, closers tease fantasy owners more than the cute girl in middle school who passes love notes requesting a check box to be filled in.

If you have been playing this game long enough, you have invariably heard every fantasy tip known to man when it comes to closers. Some of my favorites:

  • Saves, schmaves. Closers are made to break your heart.
  • Punt saves, they’re a sucker bet and you do not need them to win
  • Saves are one-tenth of your scoring—they’re just as important as any other category, and you should not slight them
  • Just draft three stiffs in the final three rounds or spend $1 on three different relievers. Saves come from everywhere, or as my friends at Razzball.com have coined, “Saves ain’t got no face!”

No matter which path you decide to take with closers, you must have a plan of attack for them on Draft Day. My personal preference is to find the closers that safely meet the skill set of what I consider a desirable closer. I want closers that keep people off the bases by striking them out and limiting free passes and that throw a lot of strikes.  I also want closers that keep the ball on the ground and limit their home runs, which are the quickest way to blow a save. Lastly, I want guys who do not have a demonstrable weakness against righties or lefties, since those types of pitchers tend to get put back into more limited roles when they struggle.  Each draft season, I put together a list of the top relievers available in the draft pool and put their statistics into a matrix that contains the following categories:

  • Groundballs: The more, the better for me
  • K/BB: It is somewhat misleading when a high walk guy also strikes out a lot, but I still like this metric.
  • HR/9: The quickest way to blow a save is to walk someone and then give up a home run.
  • AVG: This is reliant upon batting average on balls in play, but rarely does a guy go from being terribly hittable to unhittable in a season.
  • K%: The greater the percentage of plate appearances that end in strikeouts, the better.
  • BB%: The fewer free passes, the better.
  • SPLIT: Pitchers with big righty/lefty splits make better situational relieves than they do closers.

I took all relievers from the Player Forecast Manager that were projected for at least five saves and have listed their skills. The groundball rates, K/BB, HR/9, and average are all 2012 projected totals while K%, BB%, and splits are from the 2011 season. The color coding on the embedded worksheet is simple: green is good; red is worrisome. Sure, Jonathan Papelbon had a high flyball rate and drastic splits last season, but I would still draft him over Heath Bell, who had but one red flag last season.

You can also view the sheet here if the embedded worksheet format above is not your style. There are arrows to scroll over and see the other categories as well as brief comments on each reliever.

Looking at the pitchers from this view shows why it is so tempting to take J.J. Putz or Huston Street despite the health concerns. Skills-wise, there is nothing to worry about, but the health issues are tough to ignore.

A matrix like this can also help you make a skills-based call on whom to target in early drafts while managers try to figure out whom to hand the ball to for saves.

Oakland Athletics

PITCHER

GB%

K/BB

HR/9

AVG

K%

BB%

SPLIT

Grant Balfour

38%

2.53

0.7

.220

24%

8%

.016

Brian Fuentes

37%

2.4

0.8

.231

17%

8%

.027

Fautino De Los Santos

44%

2.1

0.9

.238

30%

12%

.080

The A’s have already said this is a two-horse race between Balfour and  Fuentes, and comparing De Los Santos to these two on a skills level shows how that decision may have been played out given his splits issue (albeit in a small sample) and the fact that he is both more wild and home run prone than the favorites.

Chicago White Sox

PITCHER

GB%

K/BB

HR/9

AVG

K%

BB%

SPLIT

Matt Thornton

47%

3.3

0.8

.232

24%

8%

.008

Addison Reed

41%

3.2

0.9

.229

36%

3%

.000

Jesse Crain

42%

2.1

1.0

.243

21%

10%

.004

Matt Thornton had a bad April last season, which dragged down his overall stats, and if not for the presence of Addison Reed and his small sample size of success, nobody would consider his job in danger. Yet, few expect Thornton to be with the White Sox all season, making him a risky investment for saves while potentially forcing you into drafting both players to cover one spot.

Cleveland Indians

PITCHER

GB%

K/BB

HR/9

AVG

K%

BB%

SPLIT

Chris Perez

38%

2.2

0.9

.218

16%

11%

.035

Vinnie Pestano

48%

2.8

0.9

.233

34%

10%

.164

Tony Sipp

37%

2.3

1.2

.230

35%

11%

.104

It would appear that a platoon situation could be the best fit in Cleveland rather than simply handing the ball to Perez once he returns from his injury.

Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  Closers

22 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

pobothecat

Love the matrix. Great piece of work.

Question. Depth Charts shows Alexi Ogando in a set-up role. PECOTA has him as a swing-man. Do any of us really know how he's going to be used --- and if so, can we tell me?

Mar 14, 2012 02:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

Swing-man seems most appropriate. You have to figure that Adams/Nathan have the 8/9 there so Ogando either helps Adams or helps cover injuries

Mar 14, 2012 05:19 AM
 
pobothecat

thanks for the response.

Mar 14, 2012 14:22 PM
rating: 0
 
jj0501

I also like the approach, kind of like red/yellow/green stoplight charts. I'd like to see a sample one for positional players like, say, catchers ? (It's probably already in work).

Mar 14, 2012 06:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

The tier pieces that Derek has been working on are essentially the same thing. We could likely go the extra mile there and make something like this as a complementary piece to those for people that want to see things at a skills level. This is just my own personal way of looking at closers as I do not tier them and instead look at skills and skills within teams to see what could happen when a job is in doubt as skills tend to win out on these things.

Mar 14, 2012 06:21 AM
 
joekendall

Could you change the colors? For those of us color blind specifically red and green, it is hard to tell the difference.

Mar 14, 2012 08:59 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

My apologies for not considering that. I will bold the numbers where green is and italicizes the reds when I'm off the road today.

Mar 14, 2012 09:16 AM
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

Might take a few minutes to render, but everything has been updated. Bolded text = green/good. Italicized text = red/concern.

Mar 14, 2012 12:10 PM
 
joekendall

Thank you very much. I can see the difference now.

Mar 15, 2012 19:50 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

Can't see the matrix. Google Docs problem?

Mar 14, 2012 09:15 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

It does require flash so if you are on a device that doesn't support it, the link should work

Mar 14, 2012 09:17 AM
 
DeathSpeculum

this is really great stuff Jason.
as for Cleveland - what about just handing the ball to Pestano?! the guy was lights out last year and perez was just bad.

Mar 14, 2012 10:59 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

Derek covered the Pestano argument a few weeks ago and I'm in complete agreement with him http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16011

Mar 14, 2012 11:38 AM
 
ddufourlogger

Joey Devine is more fragile than leg lamps. LIKE.

Mar 14, 2012 11:31 AM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

I understand the symbolic notion of using red and green, but please keep in mind, 1 in 10 males is red-green color blind. You are doing us poor cone-deficient slobs no favors!

Mar 15, 2012 05:29 AM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

Sorry for being redundant; just saw joekendall's comment above that made the same request.

Mar 15, 2012 05:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

so 2 of 10 in here apply....mind blown :)

Mar 15, 2012 06:18 AM
 
barnes1212

Jason.... I love this. I used it last year and won my saves category. Thank sir, you're doing yeoman's work!

Mar 15, 2012 11:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

and the A's named Balfour the closer today

Mar 20, 2012 10:11 AM
 
twayda

Is there a way to export it to an excel file? I remember doing it last year and I thought you had a link that I could just save to excel. Of course I could just be misremembering that.

Mar 20, 2012 12:02 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AhrPgS2ig671dHFsSGdCeUVHREFjQ0hjRmdCVVcxTUE&single=true&gid=0&output=csv for the CSV format to put into excel

Mar 20, 2012 12:06 PM
 
twayda

Thank You.

Mar 20, 2012 15:49 PM
rating: 0
 
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