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February 17, 2012

Fantasy Beat

Expert Mocks vs. ADP

by Jason Collette

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It started with Matt Kemp and ended with Chase Headley, but the regular phase of the Industry Mock Draft sponsored by our friends over at MLB.com’s Fantasy411 crew is finally over. It took 13 teams, 299 players, and what felt like 29 weeks, but the draft is completed.  While anyone can go to MockDraftCentral.com and pull up the most recent ADP reports that show aggregated results for nearly 800 mixed drafts, the expert drafts have appeal because, as one of my friends put it, “Experts don’t follow trends, they set them.”

If an “expert” takes someone 75 spots above or below their ADP value, it should kick-start your curiosity as to why that player is rising or falling so far in the minds of the people that help push the industry forward with their work.  After all, Mike Moustakas went 93 spots ahead of his published ADP in this draft while Tim Hudson went 110 spots below his. 

Here are the draft results by the numbers. First up: the aforementioned range of ADP risers and fallers.

Just four players—Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Corey Hart, and Matt Capps—went exactly where they were showing up in the ADP reports. 52 percent of the players in this draft went one or more spots above their published ADP values while 29 percent of the players went 20 or more spots above their published ADP values.

If we break down the draft by groups of 50, we can start to see where the largest swings in ADP volatility took place.

PICKS

AVG ADP DIFF

HIGHEST

LOWEST

1-50

2.6

+36 (Kevin Youkilis)

-25 (Tim Lincecum)

51-100

5.8

+67 (Erick Aybar)

-34 (Yovani Gallardo)

101-150

18.0

+93 (Mike Moustakas)

-55 (Dan Hudson)

151-200

-6.6

+79 (Kelly Johnson)

-79 (Mat Latos)

201-250

-9.5

+74 (Scott Rolen)

-110 (Tim Hudson)

251-299

-41.0

+25 (David Carpenter)

-76 (Doug Fister)

In each range, the largest ADP dropper was a pitcher, while potential closer David Carpenter was the only pitcher to rise above his ADP status, and that did not come until very late in the draft.

The top 10 risers in this draft (drafted/ADP):

Of note, all 10 of those players have infield eligibility, while five of them are third base eligible. Is third base that shallow? Fellow mock drafter Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys/SiriusXM fame certainly does not think so, and I tend to agree with him.

The top 10 fallers in this draft (drafted/ADP):

Altuve falls this far only because Kevin Goldstein does not do fantasy baseball. Seven of the 10 players on this list are pitchers, as many in this draft chose to wait on taking pitching. Trumbo’s draft spot could have been higher if the playing time situation with the Angles was not so muddied. Latos dropping as far as he did seems a bit extreme to me compared to a guy like Hanson, who I have more reservations about as he changes his delivery.

Finally, let’s take a look at the particulars by position:

POSITION

POS DRAFT SPOT

AVG ADP DIFF

HIGHEST

LOWEST

Catcher

136

4.7

+37 (Yaider Molina)

-48 (Carlos Ruiz)

First Base

145

5.1

+83 (Lucas Duda)

-78 (Mark Trumbo)

Second Base

144

3.8

+79 (Kelly Johnson)

-68 (Jose Altuve)

Shortstop

140

1.7

+67 (Erick Aybar)

-52 (Stephen Drew)

Third Base

145

3.5

+93 (Mike Moustakas)

-74 (Chase Headley)

Outfield

141

3.1

+70 (Martin Prado)

-60 (Delmon Young)

Pitcher

143

8.1

+54 (Jason Motte)

-110 (Tim Hudson)

 

Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  Erick Aybar,  Jose Altuve

26 comments have been left for this article.

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The BP Wayback Machine... (02/17)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Nick Hun... (02/13)
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