December 9, 2011
Early ADP Movers
The mock drafts are growing in frequency these days as mockdraftcentral.com shows nearly 70 mock drafts for 5x5 league formats over the past few weeks. These early weeks of the off-season still give us some volatile data, especially as some of the moves that happened this week in Dallas are going to cause playing time and opportunities opened up for some players while closing up for others, but it can still be useful if you know what you’re looking at.
Each time you look at an ADP report, new names show up that were not being drafted as recently as two weeks ago. Here are some of the interesting names that came up on the most recent change report for a variety of reasons:
As far as movers and shakers from earlier mock drafts go, there were ten players who saw their ADP rise by at least ten percent from two weeks ago: Dee Gordon, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Austin Jackson, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, Billy Butler, James McDonald, Koji Uehara, and Homer Bailey. Visions of 40+ steals from Gordon are clearly on the minds of drafters as they look at his stolen base total of 24 in just 56 games played last season. The rest of the players appear to be the result of self-research or advice from other pundits as nothing has happened this off-season to affect their values in terms of playing time or change of location.
Conversely, the players who saw their ADP drop the most from two weeks ago are Ryan Doumit, Javy Guerra, Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard, Adam LaRoche, Alex Avila, and Cody Ross. To be fair, only the first four saw their values drop more than eight percent, and the fact Howard was that high at all despite his injury status points to early volatility. Berkman had an ADP of 107 two weeks ago and has fallen nine spots in two weeks, and that could continue to go lower as people adjust to him losing Pujols as a teammate. Doumit’s drop from 232 to 276 seems to be a bit of an overreaction to his relocation to Target Field. The playing time should be there for him as a reserve at catcher, first base, DH, and maybe even the outfield.
The first eight rounds of a draft are where the meat of the projected production is being drafted, while the next eight rounds target roles and the final rounds are where the sleepers are taken in hopes of striking value gold. Here are the number players going in the first 120 picks by position:
If the players going in the final rounds are sleepers, here are the players with ADP’s of 240 or higher that are intriguing if they stay there:
If there is enough interest in scheduling our own mock draft, let me know in the comments section below. I would like to set one up for next Sunday evening and keep up that process every two weeks or so to see how our readership differs from others.