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October 24, 2011

Resident Fantasy Genius

Fantasy Rumor Mill for 10/24/11

by Derek Carty

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James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | Under Contract | Shields for Morrison?

Among the possibilities the Marlins are considering is a serious run at James Shields -- and they have some natural matchup on a trade, because they could dangle Logan Morrison as part of any package for the right-hander.

With so many starting pitchers on the roster, it makes a lot of sense for the Rays to trade at least one this offseason, and the Marlins certainly seem to want to rid themselves of Logan Morrison. This trade looks a lot more even than the rumored Morrison-for-Ozzie Guillen move a while back that, predictably, was more smoke than fire.

If Shields is dealt to Florida, he’ll get the benefit of the move to the National League, but he’ll lose both offensive and defensive support. It’s tough to say how the park will affect him because the Marlins will be moving into their new digs in 2012. Sun Life Stadium was most notable for its ability to inflate strikeout totals by roughly nine percent—second-best in baseball and six percentage points better than the Rays’ Tropicana Field. Because much of that was likely due to the atmospheric conditions of Miami, the new Marlins Ballpark could have a similar effect, but it’s far from a sure thing, especially with the retractable roof.

Anywhere would likely be better than Miami for Morrison, since it seems like he’s in a bad situation with the Marlins. It’s impossible to quantify discontent, but at least Morrison wouldn’t have to worry about being sent down to Triple-A (as he was in 2011) if the Rays deal their second-best pitcher for him. Tropicana deflates homers by five percent, but he’ll strike out less and will have better teammates to help with RBI and runs. Morrison would make a lot of sense in the fifth slot in the lineup and would have guys like B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist ahead of him to drive in.

It should be noted that the Rays could instead opt to deal a less talented guy like Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis since Shields is still relatively inexpensive ($7 million option for 2012), but obviously the return wouldn’t be a young potential stud like Morrison.

Either way, it seems there will be a spot in the rotation for Matt Moore come March, so any single trade rumor won’t affect his value; he’ll be starting no matter what, and Alex Cobb will probably be the first guy recalled from Triple-A.
Potential Value Change: Small Loss for James Shields; Gain for Logan Morrison

Hanley Ramirez | Miami Marlins | SS | Under Contract | Position Change?

Guillen is not ruling out a position change for Hanley Ramirez. He'll find a lot in favor in his organization for shifting Ramirez either to third base or the outfield, because of the weight he has added.

Loss of shortstop eligibility would be detrimental to Ramirez’s long-term keeper-league value as, aside from catcher, shortstop is usually the scarcest position in fantasy baseball. A position shift isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but it seems unlikely. The article Olney quotes mentions that a shift would only occur should the Marlins find a player worthy of pushing Ramirez from short, such as Jose Reyes. He’ll likely be out of the Marlins’ budget, though, and after him, the free-agent shortstop market gets very thin. Jimmy Rollins could qualify and Rafael Furcal might be a longer shot, but that’s it, so Ramirez’s shortstop eligibility seems safe for now.
Potential Value Change: Loss for Hanley Ramirez

Juan Pierre | Chicago White Sox | OF | Free Agent | Pierre/Guillen Reunion?

Juan Pierre could return to the Florida Marlins, writes Joe Capozzi. It makes a lot of sense, because Ozzie Guillen holds him in extremely high regard, because of his history with the Marlins and because of the clubhouse questions they had last year.

Pierre played for Guillen in Chicago for the past two seasons, and a reunion in Miami would seem to make a lot of sense. There’s probably no manager in baseball who values Pierre more than Guillen does, and such a signing would see Pierre leading off for the Fish. Guillen is one of the most aggressive managers in baseball in terms of his steal attempts, and that is of vital importance for Pierre since that’s where the vast majority of his fantasy value comes from. Leading off with a green light on the bases? That’s as good as it gets for a guy with his skill set. However, the Marlins do have a similar player (bat-wise) in Emilio Bonifacio, who spent the majority of 2011 leading off. If Pierre is signed, Bonifacio would find himself at the bottom of the lineup—a drastic hit to his value.
Potential Value Change: Gain for Juan Pierre; Huge Loss for Emilio Bonifacio

Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates | C | Free Agents | Options to be Declined

In a pronouncement that comes as no surprise, general manager Neal Huntington said that the Pirates intend to decline club options for Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder after the conclusion of the World Series. The catchers are two of four Pirates who hold club options for the 2012 season.

Though the options may be a moot point, the Pirates have not definitively ruled out having Doumit or Snyder return under some sort of reworked contract.

"We have some level of interest, in a vacuum, of keeping both players," Huntington said, hinting that there would be no scenario in which both return.

"The impact Snyder has had on our staff since he got here is measurable," Huntington said. "That's an important element for us to keep in mind. His impact is measured much more than just in batting average and home runs that he hit. If he gets healthy and is able to come back, those benefits are still tangible."

As for Doumit? "In Ryan's case, he's obviously swung the bat as well as he has since 2008. He has still worked hard defensively."

If Snyder and/or Doumit leave Pittsburgh this winter, they could both become very sneaky sleeper picks in 2012 drafts. Both players derive much of their value from their power—Snyder especially—and Pittsburgh is one of the worst parks in baseball for power hitters. With no more than three inferior parks for home runs, Snyder could receive a serious kick if he doesn’t re-sign with Pittsburgh, regardless of where he ultimately ends up. Between a better park and a supporting cast that is bound to be an improvement on the hapless Buccos, Snyder and Doumit are likely to be undervalued on draft day. Of course, re-signing at a lesser salary is a distinct possibility for Snyder given that the team’s current catcher corps includes Michael McKenry, Jason Jaramillo, Matt Pagnozzi, and Eric Fryer, none of whom are starting quality backstops (though McKenry might get the first chance to start if that’s all the Pirates have to pick from on Opening Day). Doumit seems to be as good as gone, but the risk of Snyder coming back is large enough not to ignore.
Potential Value Change: Huge Gain for Chris Snyder; Gain for Ryan Doumit

Mat Gamel | Milwaukee Brewers | 3B | Under Contract | Starting 1B?

[Brewers GM Doug Melvin on] possible internal options to replace [Prince] Fielder: "I'd prefer not to get into that. We know Mat Gamel is here. I look at guys like Nelson Cruz and David Freese. And Mat Gamel has had as good a year as they did in the minor leagues. He just hasn't had the chance because we haven't given him the chance. Is this the time to give Mat Gamel a chance? That's something we have to seriously consider."

Gamel had an outstanding year at Triple-A (.310 batting average, 15 percent strikeout rate, 28 home runs), and may now be given a chance to start at first base in 2012. That would obviously inflate his value immensely. He’s struggled when he’s gotten cups of coffee in the majors, but he was never really allowed to settle in, and he also struggled initially when he was promoted to Triple-A. He’s far from a sure thing, but Gamel will definitely be someone who could be undervalued on draft day and will certainly be worth a spot in NL-only leagues.
Potential Value Change: Huge Gain for Mat Gamel  

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

harderj

Thanks for the article. I have both "Big Game" James and "Little Game" Gamel in Strat, so always appreciate the inside info.

I'd love to hear more about the following:

"Sun Life Stadium was most notable for its ability to inflate strikeout totals by roughly nine percent...Because much of that was likely due to the atmospheric conditions of Miami, there’s reason to believe the new Marlins Ballpark will have a similar effect, but it’s far from a sure thing."

Pardon my ignorance (never read Adair's book, for example), but how do atmospheric conditions factor in to K's?

Miami = hot, humid, late afternoon rain/thunder showers, but generally warm (and at sea level).

Better "bite" on breaking pitches? (as opposed to, say, Coors Field) More sweat/raindrops in batters' eyes? Umpires in a hurry to get out of the heat and humidity?

I would have thought the batter's eye/general ability to see the ball would be the primary factor affecting strikeout propensity in different ballparks.

And this would be augmented by game start time (day games or 5:00 p.m. starts?), little foul territory (so at bats are prolonged and strike one and two more frequent), and maybe reachability of the fences (so batters try for the long ball more).

I'm not trying to be snarky or anything, just hadn't seen that particular causality before.

Oh, and if the "Miami Marlins" don't show up as a hyperlink on BP, do they even exist? ;~)

Oct 24, 2011 02:53 AM
rating: 1
 
harderj

Alright, I've checked it out more. Sorry I was so ill-informed.

Sun Life Stadium increases strikeouts, and is, in fact, one of eight ballparks where both strikeouts and walks are higher than normal.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/4/25/2132022/josh-johnson-florida-marlins

http://marlinmaniac.com/2011/04/28/josh-johnson-and-home-road-splits/

This calls into some question Josh Johnson's exploits, as his home/road splits are significant, but also the performance of King Felix Hernandez, toiling in Safeco Field another one of the eight.

Suspicion seems to center on the greater humidity in Miami making breaking pitches more effective, which, I guess, could lead to more walks as well (if they break out of the zone and batters take).

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-park-effects/

But I haven't been able to find any documented link between # pitches/plate appearance and ballparks, and the eight ballparks don't seem to cluster nicely into pitcher's parks, big foul territory, geography...

Anyway, just further fodder for the conversation.

Oct 24, 2011 06:53 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, Safeco seems to be the best park in baseball for strikeouts with Sun Life second. Sun Life also increases walks, as you imagined, but not to the extent it does Ks. Ks are boosted close to 9 percent while walks are boosted about 2.5 percent, according to the park factors I've recently run (but I'm still tweaking a bit).

Oct 24, 2011 08:00 AM
 
buddaley

Wouldn't the loss to Shields if he moved to Miami be defensive support rather than (or more than) offensive support?

Oct 24, 2011 04:33 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, he would definitely lose defensive support too. I thought I'd put that in there. Fixed now.

Oct 24, 2011 08:08 AM
 
Quagmire

Doesn't the new Miami park have a retractable roof? Thus, creating plenty of air-conditioned, indoor baseball. I would imagine that would be very difficult to quantify at this point with no actual data to use.

Oct 24, 2011 06:46 AM
rating: 0
 
harderj

Indeed, Marlins Ballpark (its current name until someone ponies up for naming rights) will be the sixth venue with a retractable roof. And it's intended to be a pitcher's park.

The dimensions seem Citi Field like...

Marlins Ballpark Field dimensions (from Wikipedia)

Left Field Line – 340 feet (+10 compared to Sun Life)
Left-Center Power Alley – 384 feet (+23)
"Bermuda Triangle" In Left-Center – 420 feet (-14)
Center Field – 416 feet (+12)
Right-Center Power Alley – 392 feet (+31)
Right Field Line – 335 feet (-10)
Backstop: – 47 ft (-11)

Sun Life Field had an even deeper Bermuda Triangle at 434' and also the 33' high scoreboard in left-center (which the team has not confirmed will be a feature in the new ballpark).

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/fla/ballpark/seating_pricing.jsp

Sun Life dimensions

Left field – 330 ft
Left-center field – 361 ft (was 385 at some point?)
Deep left center (Bermuda Triangle zone) - 434 ft.
Center field – 404 ft
Right-center field – 361 ft (was 385 at some point?)
Right field – 345 ft
Backstop – 58 ft

Citi Field dimensions

Left field - 335 ft
Left center - 364 ft
Deep left center - 384 ft
Center field - 408 ft
Deep right center - 415 ft
Right center - 378 ft
Right field - 330 ft

Also, one of the entries mentioned that Sun Life was known for poor lighting, which could certainly boost K's.

Oct 24, 2011 07:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, every park likely has a unique set of factors that contributes to it's strikeout park factor, such as lighting. While we can't say for certain that "it's 30% humidity, 20% foul ground, 10% lighting, 10% distracting background, etc," we can say for certain that it exists and measure the sum total of the effect.

Oct 24, 2011 08:13 AM
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yes, trying to guess a park's effects before it begins is difficult, though we can make some educated guesses. I'll probably post an article about the Marlins' new stadium as we get closer to the season.

Oct 24, 2011 08:10 AM
 
amazin_mess

Keep in mind, Sandy Alderson is announcing significant changes to the Citi Field dimensions after the Series. Rumor is they are installing an eight-foot wall in front of the Great Wall of Flushing in left (with seating behind the new wall) and they are drastically bringing in center and right-center.

Oct 24, 2011 07:38 AM
rating: 1
 
harderj

Lucas Duda is smiling.

Oct 24, 2011 07:41 AM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

So am I.

Oct 24, 2011 11:42 AM
rating: 0
 
adrock

Wouldn't Logan Morrison have to be part of a much larger package to bring in Shields? With that level of performance and his contract, he seems to be worth a lot more than a nice prospect whose value is at a low ebb in his organizations.

The article mentions the potential move of Niemann or Davis in a Morrison deal, and that seems much more likely.

I know that the Rays have significant financial constraints, but with Moore up next year seems to be within their window of contention, rather than rebuilding, so an off-season that includes a Shields trade for lesser major league talent doesn't seem to make much sense (unless the financial system collapses again and the Rays' owners really need to save their pennies).

Oct 24, 2011 14:34 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I don't know much larger, but yes, it would likely take more than Morrison to get Shields, as the article mentions. Morrison could also go for Niemann or Davis plus something too. I agree that trying to contend next year makes more sense, and keeping Shields and instead dealing Niemann/Davis accomplishes that.

Oct 24, 2011 14:43 PM
 
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