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August 15, 2011

Future Shock Blog

Ten Pack Addendum: Who Might NOT Sign?

by Kevin Goldstein

As mentioned in today's Ten Pack, I did a quick poll of industry folks, from area scouts to assistant GMs of how the 2011 draft signing deadline would look when the clock struck midnight. More than half of the insiders polled believed that all 33 first-round picks would be signed by the deadline, and no respondents believed more than one first pick would end the day without a deal.

For those that predicted a 33-for-33 night, I asked what player would they predict not signing if forced to choose, and the most common name as No. 24 overall pick Taylor Guerreri (Rays), for reasons detailed in today's Ten Pack. Still Guerreri was not the only name mentioned, so here are the next three finishers, in order of votes:

Joe Ross, RHP, Padres (25th overall): Players the commit to UCLA are never easy signs, and many believe Ross could have gotten into the early teens if he was considered more signable. With the Padres focusing as much on later picks like catcher Brett Austin and Austin Hedges, there are questions about how much money and/or time will be left for Ross.

Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds (27th overall): Stephenson is another version of Guerreri on a lesser scale, in that he expected to go higher, and more troubling to Cincinnati, will expect to be paid as much. He's a very good pitching prospect and an absolute first-round talent, but he's far from a classic over-slot player. Insiders are mixed on just how high the Reds with go.

George Springer, OF, Astros (13th overall): He received only one vote, and I'm as surprised as you to see him here. As a college player, Springer has limited leverage, but he's suddenly rumored to be asking for an elite-level package like the top three pick he had the potential to be heading into the year. He didn't earn that kind of money with just a solid but unspectacular junior year, and the Astros are betting he flinches before the bell tolls.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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ttt

So do players just want money for their highest status (draft pick, pre-season ranking, mid-season ranking)?

Aug 15, 2011 11:54 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Players just want whatever angle gets them maximum value; can't blame them.

Aug 15, 2011 12:19 PM
 
amazin_mess

Good stuff, KG, thanks.

Aug 15, 2011 11:57 AM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

If Springer doesn't sign, I'm going to make my family really happy and revert to being a Reds fan.

Aug 15, 2011 13:06 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Also, he's an outfielder, right?

Aug 15, 2011 13:08 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He is. Sorry about that. Kind of a wacky time here.

Aug 15, 2011 13:17 PM
 
CRP13

Too many tweets from people saying, "WHY HASNT MY PLAYER SIGNED YET WTFZ0RZ" or something equally intelligent?

Aug 15, 2011 13:19 PM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

something around that.

Aug 15, 2011 14:43 PM
 
escapingNihilism

are you shocked on Beede? I remember the podcast was certain that he would sign for way over slot when the Jays drafted him despite the (in)famous, Shermanesque letter.

Aug 16, 2011 06:07 AM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

What are the odds that Beede pulled a Whitson?

Aug 16, 2011 09:44 AM
rating: 0
 
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