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August 10, 2011

Future Shock Blog

Minor League Update: Games of August 9

by Kevin Goldstein

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  • Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins (High-A Fort Myers): 3-for-5, 2 2B, HR (5), R, 3 RBI, K. 15 total bases in last four games have raised slugging 59 points; .268/.290/.464 in 37 games.
  • Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks (High-A Visalia): 4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K. With 17 strikeouts in his first nine innings, he'll likely move to the upper levels with a shot at reaching the big leagues in September.
  • Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Royals (Rookie-level Burlington): 3-for-5, 2B, HR (5), 2 R, 3 RBI. 18-year-old Dominican has big offensive ceiling if he can temper approach; .293/.324/.483 in 44 games.
  • Tony Cingrani, LHP, Reds (Rookie-level Billings): 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. Third-round pick has well above-average velocity and command; 36 strikeouts and just two walks in 25.1 innings.
  • Alexander Colome, RHP, Rays (Double-A Montgomery): 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K. 2.25 ERA in four Southern League starts, but 14 walks and 13 strikeouts in 24 innings points to future regression.
  • Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers (Double-A Erie): First scoreless outing since late June; 3.84 ERA in 20 starts.
  • Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays (Double-A New Hampshire): 3-for-4, 2B, HR (16), 2 R, RBI, K. Numbers are crossing into crazy-great land with 1018 OPS since All-Star break; .329/.397/.564 overall in 93 games.
  • Tim Federowicz, C, Dodgers (Triple-A Albuquerque): 3-for-5, 2B, 2 R, RBI. BB, K. First three-hit game for Dodgers after going deep in three straight games.
  • Jae-Hoon Ha, OF, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 2-for-3, 2 2B, 2 R, RBI; 2-for-4, CS. 20-year-old Korean was hitting .241 entering August, but 16-for-32 run in last nine games have him up to .300/.336/.457 in 37 games.
  • Destin Hood, OF, Nationals (High-A Potomac): 3-for-4, 2 HR (11), 2 R, 2 RBI, K. Corner outfielder has solid tools across the board with double-digit home run and stolen base potential; .279/.366/.463 in 105 games.
  • Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa): 3-for-5, 2 R, BB, K, SB. Up to .313/.407/.615 in 26 Triple-A games; hard to see him not spending most of 2012 in the big leagues.
  • Duanel Jones, 3B, Padres (Rookie-level AZL): 1-for-5, HR (8), 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 K. 18-year-old Dominican has real power and huge defensive issues; .270/.352/.496 in 34 games.
  • Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays (High-A Charlotte): 2-for-5, R, K. Three straight multi-hit games for the first time in over a month; .317/.389/.442 overall.
  • Jake Marisnick, OF, Blue Jays (Low-A Lansing): 3-for-4, R, K, SB. 11-for-17 in last four games with 19 total bases; .322/.394/.497 in 95 games with 29 stolen bases as he's rocketing up prospect lists.
  • Kevin Matthews, LHP, Rangers (Short-season Spokane): 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K. Northwest League debut for first round pick who had 1.50 ERA in seven AZL games.
  • Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Braves (Triple-A Gwinnett): 1-for-3; 3-for-3, SB; Hitting .412/.446/.471 in 21 Triple-A games.
  • Jerry Sands, OF, Dodgers (Triple-A Albuquerque): 2-for-6, 2B, HR (21), 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 K. Eight home runs in 105 at-bats since All-Star break, but hitting just .200 during that time; .272/.343/.575 overall.
  • Ravel Santana, OF, Yankees (Rookie-level GCL): 3-for-4, 2B, R, K, SB. 19-year-old Dominican is a high-ceiling tools machine with above-average power and speed; .281/.345/.548 in 36 games.
  • Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles (High-A Frederick): 2-for-5, 2 2B, R, K. Finally finding his swing in High-A; six-game hitting streak has slash line up to .243/.308/.332 in 52 games.
  • Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays (Triple-A Las Vegas): 4-for-5, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 SB. Your guess on him is as good as mine at this point.
  • Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs (Double-A Mississippi): 2-for-3, 2B, R, 2 RBI, CS; 1-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2 K. Hitting .406 in August in .287/.322/.463 overall; there is progress here, but is it enough?
  • Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals (Low-A Quad Cities): 3-for-4, 2B, RBI, K; 3-for-4, 2B, HR (4), 2 R, 2 RBI. 10-for-17 in last four games and up to .327/.385/.497; quick start to career could get him to Double-A by the end of 2012.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

28 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

lukejazz

I really think Ha could be a breakout prospect for the Cubs. He has adapted well as a true 20-year old to AA pitching as the season has progressed and I gather he has an excellent arm. Could an outfield of Jackson, Szczur, and Ha be a possibility by 2013 (with Soriano as the 18M dollar RH pinch-hitter and overall albatross on the bench)?

Aug 10, 2011 09:53 AM
rating: 0
 
perhaps

I don't think so. I think of Szczur as more of an excellent fourth-outfield prospect, which has value. More of a Angel Pagan / John Jay type, or a good second division player, but not someone who should be getting regular starts for a good team. Although he's free to prove me wrong.

Aug 10, 2011 10:37 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Is Jackson/Ha/Szczur really an outfield to dream on? Which one is the star?

Aug 10, 2011 12:05 PM
 
CRP13

This is the quietest "BP Podcast" EVER.

Aug 10, 2011 09:54 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Steven Goldman
BP staff

Corrected.

Aug 10, 2011 10:26 AM
 
philly

re: Colome

Sure his ERA will regress if his peripherals stay lousy, but the hope would be that his peripherals will also "regress" to a more appropriate level for his stuff. That is assuming his stuff in AA is pretty good. Presumably the conservative Rays wouldn't have promoted him if they thought he'd only be able to generate middle peripherals.

Aug 10, 2011 10:01 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

Kolten Wong sure seems to be answering the critics who claimed the Cardinals made, well, the wong choice there. How does he stack up in terms of level and expectations? It looks to me as if a late first-rounder with a little time at a good college program, at age 20+, is more or less in a "normal" situation playing at low, but full season, A level. That he's not just playing there, but tearing it up, suggests that he may be a real player. Or am I too sanguine about him being at Quad Cities rather than a higher rung of the Cardinals' ladder?

Aug 10, 2011 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

Wong mashed in the Cape so raking in Low A shouldn't really be proving anything we don't already know. My issue with the pick is that this is the deepest draft in years and you take a 2B in the first round. Maybe he's an exception but guys usually end up at 2B professionally after sliding down the spectrum from other positions. Drafting a 2B to me seems a lot like drafting a RP. You ether have a RP or nothing, there isn't much of a plan B. It really seems as if Sig is calling the shots on these good-stat college guys (Wallace, Cox, & Wong) in the first round which makes me a bit uncomfortable with the direction the organization is going.

Aug 10, 2011 11:57 AM
rating: 2
 
BillJohnson

Yes, it was a deep draft, but not so deep as to make a big-time blue chipper available at the #22 pick. I would be hard pressed to name anyone who was available for that slot that I thought had more big-league potential than Wong, and that was with him having expectations of a "good" year in A ball rather than the "excellent" year he's really having. This is looking like a pretty good draft choice to me. (BTW, Kevin, you weren't one of the "critics" that I think Wong is answering.)

Aug 10, 2011 12:34 PM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

I agree on the big-league potential part, I'm just not a fan of the current philosophy for early picks. It's nice for the system to churn out average big-leaguers but the Cards have done well getting that out of later round picks. I'd prefer to go high risk/upside early. The numbers look great so far but it's still just 160 ABs. I hope he works out but it's hard to get excited about a 5-9 2B when there were guys like Ross, Guerrieri, Meyer, Swihart, Mahtook, Goodwin & Jackie Jr still on the board.

Aug 10, 2011 12:49 PM
rating: 0
 
Cardinals645

First, I think your comment about Sig calling the shots seems likely, since his title IS Director of Amateur Draft Analysis.

But I think, in order to support your view that the Cardinals are solely college stat focused, you have to ignore the Shelby Miller selection, as well as Tyrell Jenkins (and, to a lesser extent the Carlos Martinez signing and the would-have-been Wagner Mateo signing). The Cardinals are not intentionally shying away from upside. I think it's more likely that the Cardinals have a list of amateur players they like, some polished some raw, and they draft the ones still available when they pick. They might prefer college hitters more than other teams, but I don't think they're afraid to draft upside guys either.

The Cox and Wong selections are better explained, in my mind, by the fact that they both played well in the Cape Cod league, where the hitters use wood bats. The aluminum-wood bat transition does not go well for every college hitter, and I think the Cardinals organization weighs wood bat performance heavily. Wallace was named a Cape Cod All-Star too.

Aug 10, 2011 14:44 PM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

Interesting. I wasn't aware of Sig's current title. Last I knew he was the Senior Quantitative Analyst. I wouldn't say they are solely college focused, just that all things equal they will lean strongly in that direction. Most decisions seem to focus on what can help the big club quickly rather than best available, highest upside choice (the return for Rasmus being another example). Given the situation (Albert & TLR) that's understandable I suppose. I was happy to see they went tools after the 1st this year rather than making a run on college reliever types again. Speaking of Shelby, it's about time to head to the park!

Aug 10, 2011 15:24 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I was certainly not one of those critics, I was a big fan of Wong before the draft, and remain so.

Aug 10, 2011 12:06 PM
 
sungods7n

We talked a bit about this at the K. KLaw is the lead Wong critic. He had him #75 on this draft top 100 and called him a "one-tool player". That seems a bit harsh but it sure makes the Wong watch more interesting!

Aug 10, 2011 12:35 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

That's what she said.


Sorry, I couldn't help myself. I'm a bad person.

Aug 10, 2011 18:13 PM
rating: 2
 
johnorpheus

Wong in Double A by the end of 2012? I hope he's the Cardinals starting second baseman by then. Seriously though, I really hope he keeps raking, moves quickly, and soon I won't have to watch Skip Schumaker/Ryan Theriot/random scrappy player pretend to play second base.

Despite the likes of Miller, Martinez, Tavares, Jenkins, Cox leading the pack, Wong and Ryan Jackson most excite me. Looking forward to the day the Cards field a league average or better middle infield. It's been way too long.

Aug 10, 2011 10:28 AM
rating: -1
 
mrdannyg

Rhetorical question: What are the Jays going to do with D'Arnaud and Arencibia?

Aug 10, 2011 10:37 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Burn that bridge what you get to it, but that decision is looming on the horizon.

Aug 10, 2011 12:06 PM
 
Matthew Avery

Which Braves glove-first SS with an empty BA has more upside? Pastornicky or Simmons?

Aug 10, 2011 10:41 AM
rating: 1
 
Zabadoey

KG, I think Snider had 2 SB rather than 2 Ks. Glancing at his line the last two days, I can see why you might have thought they were Ks.

Looking forward to the next podcast!

Aug 10, 2011 11:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I don't know. I liked the thought of him going 4-for-5 with two strikeouts.

Aug 10, 2011 12:07 PM
 
mschroeder14

What do you think the Blue Jays will do with Arencibia/D'Arnaud? Is D'Arnaud an upgrade defensively?

Aug 10, 2011 11:08 AM
rating: 1
 
saucyjack88

Wow, Snider with 4-5 with 2K... This guy can do the unbelievable in AAA.

Aug 10, 2011 11:30 AM
rating: 0
 
greenfrog

Not really a prospect, but how about a shout-out about Dustin McGowan? Just pitched 4 shutout innings with 4 K's in his latest rehab stint with apparently good stuff. He's steadily making his way back to the bigs after a litany of injuries (including shoulder labrum surgery and rotator cuff surgery, I believe) and several years of rehabilitation. He last pitched in the majors in 2008.

Aug 10, 2011 12:12 PM
rating: 4
 
pobothecat

thanks for the heads-up on that one.

Aug 11, 2011 19:28 PM
rating: 0
 
rittdogg
(67)

Worth noting that Hak-Ju Lee was just promoted to Montgomery, with Beckham headed to Durham. I'll miss watching Lee in the FSL. He's cut down his errors and looks like he'll be a hell of a shortstop.

Aug 10, 2011 12:39 PM
rating: 2
 
Dave60

Josh Vitters is with Double AA Tennessee. Double AA Mississippi is an Atlanta affiliate.

Aug 10, 2011 13:18 PM
rating: 0
 
msurell

Kevin

If both Hak-Ju Lee and Beckham reach the majors, do you envision (or do you believe that the Tampa organization envisions) a middle of the infield with Lee at SS and Bekcham at 2B?

Aug 11, 2011 09:06 AM
rating: 0
 
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