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July 18, 2011

Future Shock

The Midseason Top 50 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

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The latest top 50 is restricted to players still in the minors, so no Mike Trout, Eric Hosmer, and so on. June, 2011 draftees are also excluded. The preseason Top 101 can be found here.

1. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (Preseason: #1)
Somehow, just like last year at junior college, Harper has exceeded expectations that were set sky high. Whatever your idea of the best slugging prospect imaginable is, Harper is a bit better than that.

2. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays (Preseason: #10)
Moore has led the minor leagues in strikeouts over the last two years, yet has somehow gotten better, adding 1-2 mph on his fastball and throwing far more strikes. The new best pitching prospect in baseball.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves (Preseason: #5)
Hasn't lost his crown due to performance, it's just that Moore has passed him. MLB starts should not be a concern as many future aces were in Low-A when they were Teheran's age.

4. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason: #15)
The Cardinals thought about beginning the year with him at Double-A. He forced his way there by the end of May, and the Texas League isn't slowing him down. Could open 2012 in the big league rotation.

5. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Preseason: #78)
Profar is hitting, hitting for power, drawing walks, stealing bases, and playing plus defense at a premium position. He's also younger than Bryce Harper, putting his ceiling somewhere above the roof.

6. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (Preseason: #16)
Was off to a fantastic start before a knee injury occurred, looking like the rare shortstop with plus power. Even if he moves to third base, the bat will still make him a star.

7. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees (Preseason: #3)
He has not yet put up big numbers this year; there is clearly a frustration factor as he has nowhere to go in New York. At some point, the Yankees just have to trade him and accept the fact that he'll rake elsewhere.

8. Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants (Preseason: #22)
Still technically a prospect and still an offensive machine who didn't get much of a chance in the big leagues. Forget about trades, Belt might be the second half's biggest addition to a contending team.

9. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays (Preseason: #18)
As with Montero, stagnation has set in a bit, but Jennings is still a future 20/40 center fielder with on-base skills and outstanding defense. I'm as confused as you are as to why Sam Fuld keeps getting playing time.

10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates (Preseason: #8)
Being treated with kid gloves, and while his secondary pitches need work, his size and combination of velocity and command for a kid so young is downright special.

11. Devin Mesoraco, C, Reds (Preseason: #53)
His ranking heading into the year was a bit tentative as the 2010 performance came so out of nowhere, but he's looking more and more like the rare catcher who can hit in the middle of a lineup.

12. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays (Preseason: #57)
Triple-A Las Vegas sure helped his numbers, but the explosion in power was the real deal, and he'd be in the big leagues if not for the recent injury. Too bad the defensive reviews are not as kind.

13. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers (Preseason: #33)
He has eliminated the occasional stinker from his starts and earned a mid-season promotion to Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Ceiling remains more No. 2 than No. 1, but the likelyhood of reaching it has increased.

14. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees (Preseason: #27)
Command has slipped a bit, but he remains a lefty with two excellent pitches in his fastball and changeup. Has looked better as the season has worn on and could be poised for a big second half.

15. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians (Preseason: #28)
In 163 games at the upper levels, he's hit .304 with 72 walks, 21 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts. There is no weakness in his game.

16. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners (Preseason: NR)
Seeing his full-season debut was almost a revelation: he's throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s, flashing a viscious slider, and he's still only 18 years old. The sky is the limit.

17. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves (Preseason: #50)
When the Braves traded Javier Vazquez to the Yankees, it wasn't about Melky Cabrera; it was about this guy. Don't be surprised if he makes his big league debut this year in either a starting or relief role.

18. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (Preseason: #31)
His full-season debut won't come until 2012, and he'll probably be a right fielder by then, but his power potential is nearly unmatched in the minor leagues.

19. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays (Preseason: NR)
Has exploded with the Rays by hitting for average, drawing walks, stealing bases, and playing a solid shortstop with an outstanding arm. Shortstops that can hit at the top of the order are worth their weight in gold.

20. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Indians (Preseason: #43)
The first college pitcher selected in the 2010 draft dominated the Carolina League with his fastball and curve and could rank even higher if his changeup improves.

21. Travis D'Arnaud, C, Blue Jays (Preseason: NR)
Finally showing off what he can do when he's healthy, D'Arnaud is very athletic for a catcher and is just beginning to tap into his power potential.

22. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals (Preseason: NR)
The fastball is special, and the breaking ball at least flashes the same, but he's small and the delivery isn't pretty. Huge ceiling, but already some knocks against him.

23. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals (Preseason: #21)
The stuff is still there, but his command has suddenly faltered. He's been excellent after skipping a recent start and could be in the big leagues by September.

24. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees (Preseason: #32)
Dominant stuff to be sure, but whispers about him possibly being better off as a late-inning reliever are becoming more common these days.

25. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (Preseason: #75)
Similar to his 2010 draft brethren Pomeranz, Harvey cruised through High-A, primarily pitching off his mid-90s heat and power slider.  Now he'll need to become more rounded at Double-A.

26. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers (Preseason: #23)
Still not missing as many bats as one would like, but the body, stuff, and age still impress as he's limited the Eastern League to a .233 batting average at the age of 20.

27. Brad Peacock, RHP, Nationals (Preseason: NR)
Few pitching prospects have seen their stock jump more.  Peacock has shown plus-plus velocity and command with the potential to be a monster if he can upgrade the rest of his arsenal.

28. Chelsor Cuthbert, 3B, Royals (Preseason: NR)
A potentially special player, the ball just sounds different off his bat. He already has a feel for in-game power, and has rounded out the package with surprisingly polished defense at the hot corner.

29. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Phillies (Preseason: NR)
Had the second most impressive Futures Game performance after Moore but rarely maintains both his stuff and command throughout a game.

30. Yasmani Grandal, C, Reds (Preseason: #86)
Last year's first-round pick has already reached Double-A in his full-season debut while showing excellent on-base skills, solid power, and average defense. He could have huge trade value.

31. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Royals (Preseason: #77)
He's refined his stuff, improved his command, and found an average changeup. Moving quickly and on pace for a 2012 debut.

32. Robbie Erlin, LHP, Rangers (Preseason: NR)
He was arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors, statistically speaking, during the first half of the year, but he's still learning how to use pitches outside the strike zone at Double-A. It's still hard to give him more than the ceiling of a good No. 3.

33. Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers (Preseason: #54)
The numbers fall more into the good category than the great, but the scouting reports are better than the numbers, and this is the first time in his life he's focused full-time on baseball.

34. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Diamondbacks (Preseason: #83)
Pitched well in a nearly impossible environment and yet remains far more about projection than reality. Still plenty of room to move up.

35. Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres (Preseason: #48)
The best pitching prospect that rarely dominates? For now, Kelly has two plus pitches, throws strikes, and gets plenty of ground balls, but it just seems like there is more there.

36. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Giants (Preseason: #52)
The stuff is great, the command is not; for now his ability to miss bats overrides other concerns. If he starts throwing more strikes, his ceiling explodes.

37. Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (Preseason: NR)
Has played fewer than 40 games as a pro, but has already showcased plus hitting skills, gap power, good wheels, an outstanding approach, and good defense. Could play a big role in a pennant race come September.

38. Bryce Brentz, OF, Red Sox (Preseason: NR)
From a flop of a debut to one of the better power prospects around, scouts see a classic corner outfield profile with 65 power and on-base ability.

39. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees (Preseason: #29)
Seemingly in the process of being written off because he hasn't dominated, Sanchez has shown impressive power for an 18-year-old while making sufficient strides behind the plate for scouts to project him as an adequate defender.

40. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox (Preseason: NR)
Was always known for his top notch defense at third base, but the bat has finally come around with truckloads of doubles and a projection for 15-20 home runs a season in the big leagues.

41. Jean Segura, SS, Angels (Preseason: #35)
Hampered by injury, but all of the tools and skills from 2010 have been on display, and he's proving that he can play on the left side of the infield.

42. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros (Preseason: NR)
Over the winter, a scout told me that if I had any cojones, I'd sneak him onto the Astros Top 11 list, which I did. Half a year later, and he's the top prospect in the system.

43. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics (Preseason: #74)
The Three True Outcomes king among prospects at nearly 43%, Choice has cut down on his strikeouts recently, and when he makes contact, he crushes balls.

44. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (Preseason: #65)
A slow start in the Midwest League is no surprise, but since April he's been among the circuit's best hitters with a downright pretty swing and power that is going to come down the road.

45. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Padres (Preseason: NR)
He's short, he's squat, he doesn't run well, and he's not pretty defensively, but man can he hit, with bat speed, great hands, and gap-to-average power.

46. Gary Brown, OF, Giants (Preseason: NR)
Looking like the Giants center fielder and leadoff man of the future, which could come as early as mid-2012. Continued improvement in his approach will be key.

47. Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Angels (Preseason: #90)
Pioneer League stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, but early reports from scouts have them drooling over his .400-plus average so far.

48. Allen Webster, RHP, Dodgers (Preseason: NR)
Fastball/changeup combination created plenty of hype in the California League, but reviews haven't been as kind at Double-A, where he needs a deeper arsenal.

49. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles (Preseason: NR)
Has impressed with his ability to hit and to drive balls, giving Baltimore one of the best middle-infield prospect combinations in the game.

50. Wil Myers, OF, Royals (Preseason: #13)
He still gets some credit for last year's explosion, but a knee injury has slowed him in 2011, and scouts who have seen him for the first time have been left scratching their heads as to the lack of hard contact.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Power,  Big League Debut,  Year Of The Injury

103 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Nils J

Not an Aaron Hicks fan? But he's soooo toolsy!

Jul 15, 2011 22:51 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He actually just missed. Would have made a 60.

Jul 15, 2011 23:18 PM
 
batts40

Seeing "Cubs" by Hak-Ju Lee makes me profoundly sad.

Jul 15, 2011 22:52 PM
rating: 4
 
deltarich

Glad to see Cowart is already making the cut on these top 50 lists. Had another solid game tonight with 2 walks. Hopefully he can at least hit Cedar Rapids before the season ends.

Really hope Segura can return soon. Sucks to see him lose a year of development because of a nagging hamstring injury

Jul 15, 2011 22:56 PM
rating: 0
 
AadikShekar

Whoa - good stuff Kevin. Thx.

Any thoughts on Giants C prospect Hector Sanchez? If he's a C long-term, does that bat play up his value (I know he just got called to the big leagues)

Jul 15, 2011 23:20 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's nothing special, but he's servicable offensively and defensively.

Jul 15, 2011 23:48 PM
 
DGBL

Could someone reasonably argue that Taijuan Walker is a better prospect than Danny Hultzen? That figures to be a pretty interesting debate come offseason ranking season.

This more than makes up for no MILB Update earlier ;)

Jul 16, 2011 00:15 AM
rating: 0
 
harderj

With regard to Walker, above, "the sky's the limit."

I've never heard that about Hultzen, so I think it's a very reasonable argument that Walker is a better prospect than Hultzen.

Hultzen is polished and likely will be quickish to the bigs, but projects as a #3 starter at best from what I've read.

From what I saw with my eyes as a UVa season ticket holder, Hultzen sure was dominant, but even with a tough ACC schedule it's still college.

Jul 16, 2011 07:23 AM
rating: 0
 
Jeff Reese

Hultzen isn't a future ace, but I'd say he's the best bet to turn into a #2 type of starter that was drafted this year.

Jul 17, 2011 08:14 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

That's a classic projection vs. assuredness argument. I'll have a ton of discussions with people before the Top 101, so I'm as interested as you are in how that will turn out.

Jul 16, 2011 08:55 AM
 
all4themoney

Great list! I like it the best of all the recent Top 50 updates by others.

The one that really surprises me is the ranking of Miguel Sano. #18 overall just feels high.

Does he just have that special of an offensive ceiling?

Jul 16, 2011 01:27 AM
rating: 0
 
wjmcknight37

I completely agree. Not too impressed with BBA or BBHQ lists.

Jul 16, 2011 07:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Yes he does.

Jul 16, 2011 08:55 AM
 
BEANOBOY35

I've heard some great things about Jarrod Parker's velocity. Are his control problems keeping him from this list or the TJ history?

Jul 16, 2011 02:13 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's been pitching very well of late, but reports are very mixed overall. He'd certainly make a 100, but I wasn't comfortable with him in the 50.

Jul 16, 2011 08:57 AM
 
Charles Kurz

Who would be on your next 10?

Jul 16, 2011 03:50 AM
rating: -1
 
Dan W.

That would defeat the purpose of its being a top 50, no?

Jul 16, 2011 10:36 AM
rating: 5
 
Sagadajones1

Where does Randall Delgado fall? Surprised he isn't Top-50...

Jul 16, 2011 05:17 AM
rating: 1
 
Matthew Avery

He just doesn't have the upside that the guys that made the list do. More of a 4/5 with #3 upside.

Jul 16, 2011 09:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Actually, he's a 3 upside guy, not a 4/5. I like him, but don't love him.

Jul 16, 2011 11:50 AM
 
pobothecat

(Described by one scount as a "pie-thrower". No idea what that means but I can't get it out of my head.)

Jul 18, 2011 12:18 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Throwing under the ball. Basically, when the pitcher's hand (palm) is under the ball rather than on top of it when he delivers it.

Jul 18, 2011 13:57 PM
 
thegeneral13

Is that viewed as a negative b/c of limited potential to generate sink? Or is it just a neutral observation?

Jul 18, 2011 16:41 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Depends on the pitcher, of course, but generally, I want to see a pitcher that stays on top of the ball (side of the ball).

Jul 18, 2011 20:53 PM
 
R.A.Wagman

Thanks for the list. I realize top-50 is really very high praise, but am nonetheless wondering about Jake Marisnick. You've mentioned this being a breakout season for him a few times already this year. Does that breakout extend to something approaching top-100, or does it simply mean up from 17 in the Jays' system to top 10? Thanks again.

Jul 16, 2011 05:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He would definitely be in my Top 100, easily. He almost made this list, in fact.

Jul 16, 2011 08:57 AM
 
R.A.Wagman

One last question - where would you place the cut-off between 5-star and 4-star guys here? Thanks

Jul 16, 2011 05:59 AM
rating: 1
 
wjmcknight37

Great question. Hope Kevin chimes in.

Jul 16, 2011 07:36 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Somewhere in the 30s.

Jul 16, 2011 08:58 AM
 
IvanGrushenko

"Cajones" are boxes, or containers, no?

Jul 16, 2011 06:22 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

More like drawers, which I have.

Jul 16, 2011 09:01 AM
 
slingblade73

No Brett Jackson?

Jul 16, 2011 06:24 AM
rating: 0
 
bp

Have to assume he just missed.

Jul 16, 2011 07:41 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Certainly would be in a top 75, but don't forget this guy hit .256 in Double-A.

Jul 16, 2011 09:26 AM
 
scoobypop5

I think with torn ligament in finger.....

Jul 16, 2011 10:45 AM
rating: 1
 
johnorpheus

Would you say your ranking of Carlos Martinez is more consistent with industry consensus on him, or is someone like Law who ranked him #4 and sees him as a future star more in line with a consesus of scouts who have seen him?

Jul 16, 2011 07:42 AM
rating: 1
 
rrvwmr

I have to think Law's view is focusing on Martinez's ceiling, which is top notch. However, questions related to his size, delivery, control, and limited professional exposure have to temper expectations.

Jul 16, 2011 08:45 AM
rating: 0
 
stevekaplowitz

Just curious where you've seen concerns about his delivery? I've seen reports from BA and ESPN that says he has an effortless motion, which is one reason they downplay the lack of size.

BA also says he has advanced control of all his pitches except his sinker. His walk rate was good at a little over 3 per 9 in Lo A even if you don't dismiss his one bad start.

Anyway, I'm more interested in where you heard reports of questions about his delivery because I've only seen the opposite.

Jul 16, 2011 17:04 PM
rating: 0
 
rrvwmr

His delivery seems all over the place to me. After he releases, he jerks his throwing hand above his head (Jose Valverde does something similar but less violent) which will put unnecessary stress on his shoulder. He never seems all that straight to the plate. He has time to work these things out though.

Jul 18, 2011 10:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Probably somewhere in between. I have nothing but respect for Keith, and I think the reverse applies, but we're going to differ on guys.

Jul 16, 2011 09:27 AM
 
Bret Sayre

How close was AJ Cole to making this list? He's been awfully impressive in Hagerstown so far this season.

Jul 16, 2011 08:01 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Made the spreadsheet certainly, but missed the list.

Jul 16, 2011 09:27 AM
 
sephrath

Where would some of this years draftees likely slot in? You can give range (top 10, 10-20, etc)

Rendon, bundy, Cole, etc

Jul 16, 2011 08:07 AM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

I have no requests to change the format of this list, move a prospect up, or add 100 more spots. Just wanted to say thanks, its always fun when we get to see a list.

P.S. could you move Altuve up, please?

Jul 16, 2011 08:26 AM
rating: 11
 
pobothecat

Ditto. Treat of the day.

Jul 18, 2011 12:20 PM
rating: 0
 
leites

Thanks Kevin, this is great! Curious about whether you think Nathan Eovaldi was close to being on this list. Seems like his upside is a lot better than Webster's.

Jul 16, 2011 08:30 AM
rating: 1
 
BillJohnson

This is tremendous work, as usual (and as goes almost without saying). One request the next time you do it: it would be very helpful if you included the rankings on your pre-season Top 101 list, for those members of the mid-season top 50 who were on it. I have spreadsheeted all that and will post it here if there is interest, but I don't want to steal your thunder, KG, so if you're going to do that already, I'll defer.

Jul 16, 2011 09:09 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Fell free to.

Jul 16, 2011 09:28 AM
 
BillJohnson

OK. So:
1. Bryce Harper 1
2. Matt Moore 10
3. Julio Teheran 5
4. Shelby Miller 15
5. Jurickson Profar 78
6. Manny Machado 16
7.Jesus Montero 3
8.Brandon Belt 22
9. Desmond Jennings 18
10. Jameson Taillon 8
11. Devin Mesoraco 53
12. Brett Lawrie 57
13. Martin Perez 33
14. Manny Banuelos 27
15. Jason Kipnis 28
16. Taijuan Walker NR
17. Arodys Vizcaino 50
18. Miguel Sano 31
19. Haek-Ju Lee NR
20. Drew Pomeranz 43
21. Travis D'Arnaud NR
22. Carlos Martinez NR
23. Mike Montgomery 21
24. Dellin Betances 32
25. Matt Harvey 75
26. Jacob Turner 23
27. Brad Peacock NR
28. Cheslor Cuthbert NR
29. Jarred Cosart NR
30. Yasmani Grandal 86
31. Jake Odorizzi 77
32. Robbie Erlin NR
33. Zach Lee 54
34. Tyler Skaggs 83
35. Casey Kelley NR
36. Zack Wheeler 52
37. Leonys Martin NR
38. Bryce Brentz NR
39. Gary Sanchez 29
40. Will Middlebrooks NR
41. Jean Segura 35
42. Jose Altuve NR
43. Michael Choice 74
44. Nick Castellanos 65
45. Jedd Gyorko NR
46. Gary Brown NR
47. Kaleb Cowart 90
48. Allen Webster NR
49. Jonathan Schoop NR
50. Wil Myers 13

The format, obviously, is {Top 50 position/Name/Preseason top 101 position}. "NR" means Not Ranked, i.e., not on the pre-season list. Incidentally, at least the top 30 from Kevin's pre-season list, and possibly deeper, are all either on this list, or playing in the bigs (or DL'ed from same) and therefore ineligible for it. Interesting observation on the quality of Kevin's pre-season analysis.

Jul 16, 2011 10:09 AM
rating: 24
 
lukejackson10

Couple of questions, Kevin...

Did you list Schoop as a 2B because that's what he's mostly been playing at Frederick or do you think he could stick there? Also, what are your thoughts on Bobby Bundy and Parker Bridwell, two RHP's in the O's organization?

Thanks for the list, Kevin.

Jul 16, 2011 09:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I think Schoop will likely stay at 2B, but wouldn't rule out 3B. He's not a SS, and that has nothing to do with Machado. I like Bundy, but not for a list like this, same for Bridwell.

Jul 16, 2011 09:29 AM
 
moehk21

Hey KG- is Stetson Allie still a top 100 guy in your opinion? Also, last year you listed Guillermo Pimentel as a 4 star guy, is he still that and will he be a likely top 100 guy? Thanks!

Jul 16, 2011 11:04 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Yes; yes.

Jul 16, 2011 11:51 AM
 
hyprvypr

Kevin, Wilin Rosasio's uninspiring hitting the reason for his fall from the top 50? I've heard his defense is still a plus but it looks like higher level pitchers have found some holes.

Jul 16, 2011 11:44 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He was the very LAST cut. So there's your 51.

Jul 16, 2011 11:51 AM
 
jtdude0

Oswaldo Arcia is a guy who I've heard Klaw tout the value of numerous times; do you share the same level of enthusiasm or is there something there mechanically or otherwise that is a little concerning?

Jul 16, 2011 12:18 PM
rating: 0
 
hyprvypr

I'd bet Arcia is also right on the fringe of the top 50 as well. Not much other tools but the kids young, advanced for his age and seems to be a plus plus hitter with at least plus power.

Jul 16, 2011 12:32 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

KG - Does Skaggs have a #1 ceiling?

Jul 16, 2011 13:29 PM
rating: 0
 
dwinning

Where's my team's fifth best prospect? Why do you hate him? Why do you hate my team?

Jul 16, 2011 15:49 PM
rating: 2
 
grandslam28

Billy Hamilton = pinch basestealer?
Pinch base stealer with 50+ steals?

Jul 16, 2011 20:09 PM
rating: 0
 
BarryR

Perhaps there's an immense defensive difference between the two corner OF, but Dayan Viciedo is putting up similar offensive numbers to Bryce Brentz, #38, only he's doing it in AAA not A+. They're both 22, so where is Dayan, and why isn't he ahead of Brentz?

Jul 17, 2011 00:32 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Viciedo has over 100 major league ABs. I can't speak for Kevin, but I tend to omit guys with that many ABs at the highest level.

Jul 17, 2011 11:06 AM
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Because he doesn't really have a position yet, and I got more support from Brentz from scouts.

Jul 17, 2011 15:45 PM
 
Nater1177

Not that I expect he was 'on the spreadsheet' for the top 50, but how far has Ryan Lavarnway's stock risen this season? He's raking, but was more curious about whether scouts see his Defense as future passable (if below average or if he's a poor man's Jesus Montero.

Jul 17, 2011 02:40 AM
rating: 0
 
fawcettb

Where's Tim Wheeler, who's having one of the top 5 offensive seasons in the minors, and plays CF?

Jul 17, 2011 06:24 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Not sure he's a center fielder long term, and he was one of the last cuts.

Jul 17, 2011 10:22 AM
 
greenfrog

Did Drew Hutchison and Anthony Gose garner any consideration? Would they make a top 75 list? Top 100?

Jul 17, 2011 06:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'm not a big Gose fan, but Hutchinson earned consideration.

Jul 17, 2011 10:22 AM
 
fflakes41

But isn't Gose one of those fast guys you like so much, a la Herb Washington?

Jul 17, 2011 19:29 PM
rating: 2
 
Zabadoey

Kevin, sounds like you're not totally buying Goldschmidt. Do you still have questions about the bat/approach, or is it the fact that he's a 1B and the bat HAS to be elite?

Jul 17, 2011 11:36 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

More B than A. He was certainly considered.

Jul 17, 2011 15:45 PM
 
grandslam28

What's your take on Arenado?
And is there any progress in Westmoreland?

Jul 17, 2011 15:45 PM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

I think Westmoreland's being able to lead a normal life is the "actualization" of his skills, and anything beyond that is gravy. I'd be (pleasantly) *shocked* if he returns to good prospect status.

Given the part of the brain impacted by this surgery, you really can't expect him to make a full (in a baseball sense) recovery.

Jul 17, 2011 17:20 PM
rating: 1
 
grandslam28

Also where would you rank that Royals 1B prospect who is mashing in AAA with nowhere to go?

Jul 17, 2011 15:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Charles Kurz

AAAA player. Think Chris Davis

Jul 17, 2011 19:24 PM
rating: 0
 
grandslam28

how can you call him a AAAA when he has never recieved the chance?

Jul 17, 2011 20:43 PM
rating: 0
 
Vriez10

You can do it very easily when every scout that sees him says that.

Jul 18, 2011 11:11 AM
rating: 0
 
grandslam28

But it is a comment used for guys who have not been able to do it in the majors. If he never had a chance to do it in the majors then he should be able to avoid that label.

Jul 18, 2011 13:15 PM
rating: 1
 
ccseverson

Is Chris Carter out of the top 50 because he was in the majors at the time or because of his play ... or both?

Jul 17, 2011 20:57 PM
rating: 0
 
MightyMoGreen

Really just not a Kyle Gibson fan, eh? Having seen him dominate the Sea Dogs in a start against Casey Kelly, and comparing their numbers in the minor leagues, I've always wondered what y'all see in Kelly that I'm missing, or what I'm missing about Gibson.

Jul 17, 2011 22:34 PM
rating: 0
 
MightyMoGreen

I'm going to put on my K.G. hat and AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! Sorry, wrong K.G. hat. I almost just started a fight for someone else to finish.

Gibson and Kelly are another classic case of assuredness versus upside.

Jul 19, 2011 02:26 AM
rating: 0
 
gdragon1977

Trayvon Robinson hasn't done enough this year to slide into the top 50? Although I suppose that it seemed like you were higher on him than most coming into this year, so maybe it's just a case where he's not actually doing much more than you expected in the first place.

Jul 18, 2011 06:06 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I love Trayvon, but that's Albuquerque. See Sands, Jerry.

Jul 18, 2011 09:43 AM
 
gdragon1977

Sure but we knew what Albuquerque was like before the season started too and I personally wasn't expecting a .940 OPS. Plus I'd think that an Albuquerque discount would hit Sands' value harder since he's sort of a bat-only guy while Robinson still brings other things to the table. How far off the list was he?

Jul 18, 2011 10:24 AM
rating: 1
 
mschroeder14

Where does James Darnell fall? He is going nuts this year after a down year in '10 with a hand injury.

Jul 18, 2011 06:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I wish I liked him at third base, but he's definitely way up and was on the spreadsheet for consideration.

Jul 18, 2011 09:43 AM
 
Zaxell

Hak-Ju Lee is listed at 170 pounds. According to goldprice.org, gold is running at $1599.63 / oz. So a gold Hak-Ju Lee is worth $4350993.60; slightly less than one win. Lee's value actually greatly exceeds his weight in gold; it's matched by his 2011 projected WARP (0.7) alone.

Jul 18, 2011 07:13 AM
rating: 23
 
onuhwt

lol awesome

Jul 19, 2011 15:20 PM
rating: 0
 
Schere

I know Schoop went blow-for-blow with Machado while they were teammates at Delmarva, but I'm shocked (happily!) to see him on this list. I guess I can put you down on the "not worried" list, as it applies to his month of lackluster performance in Frederick?

Schoop was 6th among your Orioles top 11 before this year, the lowest of the O's 3-star prospects. Has anyone else in your top 50 made a similar leap this year? I hope you'll forgive me for not knowing the answer already. :)

Jul 18, 2011 07:30 AM
rating: 0
 
Eric

Is Segura dealing with one or more injuries? How many seasons away is he from playing in LA/Anaheim?

Jul 18, 2011 07:43 AM
rating: 0
 
timber

I've been puzzled as well about Myers...the injury was to the left knee - his front leg - would any lingering issues cause problems with the bat? You would think that the injury was pretty superficial, since it wasn't structural, but for him to have been out so long it had to a pretty bad infection.

Jul 18, 2011 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

It was an ugly infection, and it's definitely affected him, as he's just not driving balls this year.

Jul 18, 2011 09:44 AM
 
cavebird1

In the offseason, I asked you a question about Matt Szczur, and you seemed not to be particularly impressed by him. I noticed that BA was higher on him. (He was in the BA Top 10 Cubs, not in your Cubs list at all, IIRC.) Now, half a good season later, albeit being too old for low A, BA has put him in their midseason top 50. Obviously, you have not. Are you still not impressed, or has he risen in your estimation at least some this year?

Jul 18, 2011 10:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's definitely risen, but I don't think he's great.

Jul 18, 2011 21:20 PM
 
RedsManRick

How close was Yonder Alonso? He was #74 pre-season and has added the power people were waiting on while improving his plate discipline. Obviously he's a 1B/DH not a LF, but he's a legit, major-league hitter, right? Just another casualty of the ceiling > certainty approach of prospect valuation?

Jul 18, 2011 10:33 AM
rating: 0
 
koopbri

Thanks for this, it's great stuff.

Jenry Mejia - Dropped from Top 50 automatically due to TJ surgery, or is there more to it than that?

Jul 18, 2011 13:54 PM
rating: 0
 
timber

Heck, John Lamb is no longer top 50 either, and he was ranked higher than Mejia, so I'd say it looks like KG gives drops for a TJ surgery.

Jul 19, 2011 08:31 AM
rating: 0
 
jtwalsh

If someone already asked this, my aplogies. If Mike Trout were in the minors and eligible, would he be 1A, 2 or lower?

Jul 18, 2011 14:35 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

2.

Jul 18, 2011 21:21 PM
 
yadenr

Is Holmberg getting consideration ("on the spreadsheet")? Thanks again!

Jul 18, 2011 23:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Marco

Thanks Kevin, nice update! And thanks for chiming in on the board so often!
War Travis Snider!

Jul 19, 2011 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
rookie319s

Christian Yelich Barely made the top 100. Is he still in the top 100? Was he anywhere close to 50? Thank Kevin!

Jul 19, 2011 16:42 PM
rating: 0
 
Lloyd Cole

As usual, this was wonderful. Great scouting insights and an almost perfect balance of skills vs. tools. And I love to read your stuff--always (including every Update).

Jul 20, 2011 11:54 AM
rating: 0
 
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