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October 19, 2010

Checking the Numbers

I'm Relieved to Start

by Eric Seidman

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A couple of weeks back, I wrote an article called ‘The Turnaround Kids’ which identified the players with the most substantial improvements from 2009 in TAv, WARP, SNWP, and WXRL. Everyone loves a good turnaround, and it was interesting to see how Aubrey Huff’s 6.1 WARP was not only high, but representative of a vast improvement from a year in which he fell below replacement level. Similarly, Brad Lidge might not have put together the greatest season in 2010, but he was solid, and his numbers look masterful when compared to the dreck he put on display a year ago. In all likelihood, Josh Hamilton experienced the greatest turnaround, improving from a disappointing and injury-plagued campaign that found him at the replacement level into the odds-on favorite to win the American League’s Most Valuable Player award.

In discussing the turnarounds, some comments mentioned other players who did not appear on the list, but who maybe should have earned a spot. Brett Gardner was one, though his exclusion stemmed from my plate appearances filter; there needed to be some restrictive measure in place to ensure that the turnaround was more than the byproduct of a change in playing time. Colby Lewis was mentioned as another possible candidate, though he did not play in the major leagues last season. A comparison for his 2010 numbers would involve statistics produced in small samples prior to his trip to Japan, or some hypothetical construct. Neither would be an appropriate comparative baseline.

The other name that surfaced was C.J. Wilson, who was the Rangers’ best starter this season. Cliff Lee is certainly more talented, but he didn’t arrive in Arlington until the final months of the season, and Wilson was consistently effective for the entire season. SIERA might be bearish on his ability to remain as successful moving forward, but he still put up great numbers, producing 4.9 WARP in 33 starts and 204 innings. A year ago he logged 73 2/3 innings in 74 appearances, adding 3.2 WARP.

Wilson’s improvement is interesting, because it wasn’t as if he went from bad starter to good starter—he went from good reliever to very good starter. In other words, Wilson didn’t turn anything around as much as he flourished in a newer and tougher role. Today my goal is to find the pitchers who made the Wilson Transition successfully, and for those schadenfreude advocates out there, the pitchers who failed in their attempts. This is different from evaluating swingmen, who make the transition in the same season, as Wilson changed roles from one year to the next.

The first step is to actually define starters and relievers. This is not as cut-and-dried as labeling a starter as a pitcher with zero non-starts, or a reliever as a pitcher with zero starts. Roy Oswalt pitched in relief on the final day of the season, so a query as restrictive as zero non-starts equals a starter would exclude him. Similarly, if a player makes five or six relief appearances and then settles into the starter’s role, proceeding to make 20 or more starts, he should qualify as a starter for this exercise.

With that in mind, I defined relievers as making no more than five starts in a season while pitching more than 40 innings. I defined starters as making 20 or more starts in a season with a difference of no greater than 10 between games pitched and games started. From there, I found which relievers meeting this criteria went on to fulfill the starting requirements in the very next season, and sorted by SNWP, a very good measure for evaluating starting pitchers. Here are the top transitions:

Name

Years

WXRL-YR1

SNWP-YR2

Derek Lowe

2001-02

0.16

.658

Wilbur Wood

1970-71

0.27

.615

Matt Morris

2000-01

1.47

.595

John Smoltz

2004-05

6.99

.589

Scott Garrelts

1988-89

0.39

.586

Ryan Dempster

2007-08

2.59

.586

R.A. Dickey

2009-10

-0.44

.585

Don Gullett

1970-71

3.07

.581

Pedro Martinez

1993-94

5.58

.580

Shawn Chacon

2004-05

-1.80

.578

Derek Lowe very clearly produced the best pitched season for those making the transition out of a group consisting merely of 55 pitchers since 1960. On average, the relievers produced 0.87 WXRL the year before becoming a starter, and a .523 SNWP while in the rotation the following year. Neither of those numbers necessarily screams success, but they provide some value nonetheless. In that 2002 campaign, Lowe put up a 2.58 ERA in 219 2/3 innings, and a 0.97 WHIP. He finished third in Cy Young Award voting and was named to the All-Star team. Since converting to a starter he has been one of the most durable and reliable in the game. From 2002-10, he has never made fewer than 32 starts, and has averaged 205 innings with a 3.90 ERA.

In the cases of R.A. Dickey and Shawn Chacon, both pitchers performed poorly out of the bullpen and were thrust into the starting rotation by virtue of necessity the following season. Chacon produced a 7.11 ERA as the Rockies closer in 2004, putting together what would go down as, at the time, the worst season ever for a reliever given as many save opportunities. The aforementioned Lidge would make that season look like an Dennis Eckersley special when he set the all-time low in WXRL last season. In 2005, Chacon split time between the Rockies and Yankees and had one of those my-ERA-is-low-but-peripherals-stink seasons, with a 3.44 ERA but ugly HR, BB, and SO rates. Dickey was still fine-tuning his knuckler in the Twins bullpen last year and turned into the Mets’ top starter this past season. Could he be the new Tim Wakefield?

This top-10 list also consists of Ryan Dempster and John Smoltz, who were starters that successfully became relievers before going back into the rotation. As is clear from Smoltz’s WXRL, he was dominant no matter where he went. What about the opposite list? Which 10 pitchers made the transition and produced the worst SNWPs?

Name

Years

WXRL-YR1

SNWP-YR2

Allen Ripley

1979-80

-0.14

.467

Brandon McCarthy

2006-07

0.75

.467

Don Kirkwood

1975-76

1.45

.454

Scott Schoeneweis

2003-04

-0.38

.454

Paul Quantrill

1994-95

-1.14

.440

Calvin Schiraldi

1987-88

0.58

.440

Renie Martin

1981-82

0.39

.428

Danny Graves

2001-02

3.07

.425

Jay Hook

1961-62

-0.17

.412

Ken Brett

1971-72

0.01

.372

For the most part, even these bottom feeders performed relatively well. A .467 SNWP isn’t great by any means, but a team wouldn’t see their hopes of contention drastically diminished if someone with that mark occupied the fifth spot in a rotation. Several of these players went back to the bullpen after their attempt at starting didn’t work out, including Scott Schoeneweis, Paul Quantrill, and Danny Graves.

 Wilson produced an SNWP of .560 this season, which is very solid, but not spectacular relative to the pitchers in the list above. One would think, however, that his success will be longer lived than that of Chacon or Matt Morris. Have any other pitchers made noteworthy shifts from the bullpen to the rotation?  

Eric Seidman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Eric's other articles. You can contact Eric by clicking here

Related Content:  Shawn Chacon,  The Who

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

jhardman

Thanks for this article. I commented in your earlier "Turnaround Kids" article that the CJ Wilson "improvement" was probably on a different level and was likely a different topic. This really proved that theory. :-)

Two weeks later, the Wilson start in Yankee Stadium is now likely the most critical in the series for Texas.

Oct 19, 2010 07:52 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

It's rather misleading to have Matt Morris on this list, because 2000 was a complete anomaly in a career that otherwise was that of a starting pitcher -- and in the main, before hitting a lamentably long decline phase, a very good one. He was only working out of the bullpen that year because he was coming back from a serious injury that had cost him all of 1999 and the Cardinals were managing his work load very carefully. He is even more in the "starter who became a reliever who became a starter" camp than Smoltz and Dempster, since his time in the pen was very brief indeed. I'd be tempted to exclude all such guys from this analysis, as many have stories similar to Morris'.

Oct 19, 2010 08:39 AM
rating: 0
 
bozarowski

I'm going to think of this as my first 'shout-out' in a BP article: "Brett Gardner was one, though his exclusion stemmed from my plate appearances filter; there needed to be some restrictive measure in place to ensure that the turnaround was more than the byproduct of a change in playing time"

Here's to reading more carefully, right Eric? Sorry about that last time.

Interesting article as always, I had forgotten about Matt Morris' relieving days - always like that guy. I had expected to see Adam Wainwright here when I clicked over [75 IP all in relief in 2006 (2.840 WXRL) to 202 innings all in 32 starts in 2007 (.562 SNWP)] but alas he misses the cut.

Oct 19, 2010 09:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BillJohnson

In any event, Wagonmaker would be another starter-turned-reliever-turned starter. His minor-league career was as a starter, and once again, St. Louis put him in the pen in 2006 to ease his transition to the Show (and, to be sure, because of need). One would have to say it worked...

Oct 19, 2010 11:37 AM
rating: 1
 
CRP13

+1 for "Wagonmaker". Well played.

Oct 19, 2010 14:07 PM
rating: 0
 
ddrezner

"Have any other pitchers made noteworthy shifts from the bullpen to the rotation?"

Byung Hyun Kim? Philip Hughes? Braden Looper?

Another was to parse this out is to get rid of the pitchers who broke into the majors by being in the bullpen even though they were groomed as starters. Pitchers who carved out decent stretches as established relievers and then switched to starterdom are more interesting.

Oct 19, 2010 10:44 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Eric Seidman
BP staff

Hey, if you know how to code that in, I'm ready to listen!

Oct 19, 2010 14:39 PM
 
sroney

I suppose you could look for pitchers with multiple relief years, instead of just one.......

Oct 19, 2010 17:25 PM
rating: 0
 
sandriola

I noticed that the bottom 10 list was primarily made up of pitchers from the 70s through the 80s, whereas the top 10 list was mostly from this decade. Do you think this is a result of hyper-specialization or a product of moving to the 5-man rotation? My thinking is specialization would give relievers moving to the rotation a shorter leash on a rotation spot. Also, the 4-man rotation would give relievers more spot starts. That, along with smaller bullpens, would give more opportunity to stick even with poor performance.

Oct 19, 2010 15:25 PM
rating: 0
 
hhbliss

Where would Justin Duchscherer's 2008 rank, if he hadn't had his IP limited by injuries in 2007?

Oct 19, 2010 18:00 PM
rating: 0
 
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