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October 10, 2010
Sunday LDS Game Projections
Well, that didn’t take long, as the Yankees have already moved on from the American League Division Series to the American League Championship Series while the Twins are once again sent home. I don’t necessarily buy into the whole psychological factor that the media seems to think is a tremendous storyline. The Twins are a great team, but the Yankees are greater. I highly doubt a great team like the Twins subconsciously sabotages itself throughout a game and that’s why the other team comes away victorious. It’s tough to beat a team so deep that Lance Berkman isn’t even a regular, regardless of whether or not players on the opposing team have some deep-rooted notion that they are the lesser team entering the matchup. The Yankees will rest up, avoiding the need to use CC Sabathia on short rest, and awaiting the outcome of our first series today.
The Rays and Rangers, who don’t get the benefit of longer gaps between games, square off at 1 p.m. Eastern, and are forced to utilize starting pitching depth in a battle of No. 4 starters. Tommy Hunter will try to let the Yankees know, without further delay, who they’ll be facing next week. At 4:30 p.m., the Giants will send Jonathan Sanchez to the mound in Atlanta to try and get back the home field advantage the Braves so rudely neutralized Friday night. The Giants will face Tim Hudson, an even better ground ball machine than Derek Lowe, who held the Giants to just one controversial run this past Thursday. And the nightcap pits 2008 playoff hero Cole Hamels against Johnny Cueto as the Phillies will attempt to complete the sweep of the Reds at Great American Ball Park., while
Rays (Wade Davis) at Rangers (Tommy Hunter)
Projected Runs Scored: Rangers 5.25, Rays 4.56
Projected Odds of Winning: Rangers 56.81 percent, Rays 43.19 percent
Rays vs. Tommy Hunter
Rangers vs. Wade Davis
It is much more efficient from a production standpoint for us to pump these bad boys out prior to the actual lineups being posted. However, if there are lineup changes not reflected in any of these tables, please let us know in the comments section and we’ll work to correct them. The Rangers will likely go with David Murphy and Mitch Moreland in place of Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu, given that the latter pair seem to be part of the vs. LHP lineup. Both project fairly well against Wade Davis. In fact, the entire Rangers team looks like it is expected to mash again in this game, with similar numbers to when they faced James Shields. Davis isn’t as talented as David Price or Matt Garza, so this isn’t necessarily a stretch.
Giants (Jonathan Sanchez) at Braves (Tim Hudson)
Projected Runs Scored: Braves 4.17, Giants 3.76
Projected Odds of Winning: Braves 54.66 percent, Giants 45.34 percent
Giants vs. Tim Hudson
Braves vs. Jonathan Sanchez
The Braves have to be feeling pretty good about their chances here, as they take a 1-1 series back to their home turf and get to turn the ball over to their ace. Neither team looks particularly solid from an offensive standpoint and Sanchez is no slouch, so runs will be at a premium in this game. The Giants will have to hope Hudson makes a mistake with that sinker while the Braves will need to take a page out of The Book of Heyward and work the count in their favor.
Phillies (Cole Hamels) at Reds (Johnny Cueto)
Projected Runs Scored: Phillies 4.61, Reds 4.33
Projected Odds of Winning: Phillies 52.94 percent, Reds 47.06 percent
Phillies vs. Johnny Cueto
Reds vs. Cole Hamels
Even on the road, the Phillies lineup projects to perform better against Cueto, though the Reds certainly appear to be capable of handling Hamels. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce might struggle a bit more than these lines indicate given how well Hamels handles lefty counterparts, but the Reds also offer an array of power from the right side. The Phillies bullpen performed very well on Friday night, but the Reds are able to mix and match relievers to hitters much moreso, which would narrow the gap between the teams should Hamels be forced to throw too many pitches early in the game.