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September 13, 2010

Fantasy Beat

Hot Spots: First Base, Third Base, and Designated Hitter

by Michael Street

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Third base options abound among undervalued AL keepers, and (like last week), all these players have ESPN ownership levels under 1%, with one exception: regular-season VP Danny Valencia. His 5% ownership is bafflingly low, considering how he’s done since taking over third base for the Twins. In 163 PAs, he’s hit .340/.368/.477, making contact 86% of the time, though his 5% walk rate is a tad low.

Click graphic for more stats

A .379 BABIP during that time suggests regression, and he hasn’t put up great counting numbers at the bottom of the Twins order. Otherwise, he’s had a fine debut, and Dan Wade thinks he might seize ROY with a productive September. Regardless, he’s got the 3B job next year. Kevin Goldstein gave him a three-star rating, pointing out his streakiness, low power, and plate impatience, though only the last showed itself this year. Valencia’s exceeded expectations at every level, and if you want a guy with a lock on productive playing time in 2011, that’s Valencia.

Click graphic for more stats

Like other Cuban imports, Dayan Viciedo is a bundle of potential wrapped in question marks. His power (.219 ISO in Triple-A) is as undeniable as his impatience: he followed up a 3.8 BB% in the minors by not walking in his first 82 major-league PAs. His poor conditioning may push him across the diamond to first base, decreasing his fantasy value.

And, like Alexei Ramirez and Kendry Morales, Viciedo might take a while to adjust, despite the batspeed and raw power BP 2010 speaks of. He also has a good path to playing time at first or third base: if Paul Konerko returns, it’s likely at DH, and the Venezuelan love affair between Ozzie Guillen and Omar Vizquel won’t last forever. PECOTA’s bearish forecast for Viciedo gives him a peak TAv of only .259 in 2014, but that’s based on a small data set and the volatile projectability of Cuban players noted above. He’s a fine gamble for power, though the BA and OBP risk remains.

Click graphic for more stats

Josh Bell, the last of the third-base trio, also has a clear starting role in 2011. Bell’s 23 K% in the minors has bloomed to 33 K% in the bigs. That lack of contact combined with a 1.4 BB% to produce his miserable MLB line above. The power evident in his .191 minor-league ISO hasn’t emerged, maybe because he’s only putting 27.2% of the balls in the air. He’s also not the speedster his 56.5 GB% suggests (23 SBs and 13 triples in the minors); he’ll have to alter his hit trajectory to rack up the longballs. But Bell faces few challenges in the Orioles system, so AL-only and deeper mixed leagues can take a chance on him adjusting with more playing time.

Click graphic for more stats

Across the diamond, Mitch Moreland has already delivered fantasy value this season as Jorge Cantu’s platoon mate. Since his callup at the end of July, Moreland has put up the numbers on his Rotolympus card, and his .288 BABIP shows this isn’t a fluke. His 77% contact rate is down from 84% in the minors, but his 14 BB% shows consistent discipline, and it’s even better than his 10% average in the minors.

He shouldn’t remain a platoon hitter after hitting .328/.415/.515 against fellow southpaws and .318/.377/.519 against righties in the minors. Arlington will augment Moreland’s modest power, and the Texas hitters will boost his counting stats once he inevitably rises in the order. PECOTA also paints an optimistic picture, foreseeing TAvs of .270 and higher down the road. Moreland is a must-own in AL-only and most mixed leagues, even if more than 99% of ESPN owners haven’t recognized it.

Click graphic for more stats

Last is DH Kila Ka’aihue, the better of the Hawaiian Bash Brothers—not much of a contest, since little brother Kala hit .167/.371/.364 before the High-A Stockton Ports released him in May. Kila’s callup came after his .319/.463/.598 2010 season led the PCL in OPS and OBP, thanks to an eye-popping 21% walk rate. His contact rate slipped from 81% in 2009 to 79%, but his 21.7 LD% shows he was nailing the pitches he hit. His SLG is 59 points higher against righties in his career, but his platoon splits are otherwise fairly equal.

While glum, Ka’aihue’s 2010 major-league numbers have shown improvement. After walking 3 times in his first 59 PAs, he took 11 free passes in his next 62 PAs. His whiff rate has held steady at a respectable 17.4%, while his .230 BABIP shows some bad luck. Unlike others on this list, Ka’aihue has some internal competition from Eric Hosmer, and DHs are easily replaceable. But he’ll have 2011 to shine, and those in OBP or Scoresheet leagues can use Ka’aihue, while the rest of us can roll the dice that power will follow his great plate awareness, like it did in the minors.

Related Content:  Impatience

6 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

BPKevin

Thank you Michael. I would appreciate your thoughts on Steve Tolleson playing 3B, 2B & SS for Oakland. He hit .332 with 9 homers and 43 RBI for Triple-A Sacramento. I wondering whether he'll get enough PT to warrant starting him over Mike Aviles or Angel Sanchez.

Sep 13, 2010 08:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Michael Street
BP staff

BPK--

I'm gonna bring in Michael Jong to address most of this question, as he's our 2B/SS guy. As far as Tolleson playing any 3B for Oakland, I don't see Kouzmanoff going anywhere. He's not a free agent until 2013 or so, meaning he'll be (relatively) cheap for them until then, and he's had a productive year on both sides of the ball.

However, Tolleson could fit into their MIF picture. I'll let Michael Jong speak to that.

Thanks for the question!

Mike

Sep 13, 2010 10:17 AM
 
BP staff member Michael Jong
BP staff

BPKevin,

I think the A's are a bit jammed in the middle infield to try and fit Tolleson into the fold. They can't be happy with either Mark Ellis or Cliff Pennington, but Adam Rosales sits on the bench as the team's current super-sub, and he wasn't half bad at the plate when Ellis was hurt. I figure the team will probably give Pennington another shot, with Rosales at the ready the former struggles.

As far as Tolleson, he was 26 this year playing in the PCL, which is well known for its offensive inflation. He had one other good season in his first AA stint, but that seemed like a mirage sandwiched between two mediocre years. All that probably means you should take his latest outburst with a grain of salt. He does have some speed, though he isn't the most efficient baserunner (career SB% OF 67%), and he can muster a good AVG/OBP with his decent strikeout rates, so, he does have a few light tools. He may be on the A's radar for next year, but not before Morales or without an impressive spring.

Sep 13, 2010 10:29 AM
 
pobothecat

Love these looks forward at the prospects of young lesser-knowns. Interested that your discussion of Viciedo didn't include mention of Brent Morel. Can't help thinking his high-contact style of not-walking might be more attractive to Ozzie next spring than Dayan's slump-prone power. And if, indeed, Viciedo goes to 1B, doesn't that give Morel an even better shot at 3B? What's your best guess on that intriguing open-corners situation in Chicago?

Sep 13, 2010 09:55 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Michael Street
BP staff

Pobo--

Morel moved up quickly this year, which to me suggests he might need more seasoning in 2011 at Triple-A. He's going to bring BA and OBP more than power, but is certainly part of the pressure to shift Viciedo.

Looking a bit more long-term, I'd say Morel is the guy for 3B by the end of 2011 or the start of 2012. That would definitely push Viciedo to 1B and Konerko (or whomever) to DH. As far as keeper potential, I like Viciedo more because of the pop he offers, since that's what fantasy owners look for in a CIF.

Regardless, Ozzie's got some great options ahead, and your questions and comments are as spot-on as ever!

Thanks!

Sep 13, 2010 14:09 PM
 
pobothecat

Michael --- Good point about Morel. And, wow, sincere thanks for the nod. But should you really be encouraging the guy who gave us "Alex Sanabia: Saint or Deity"?

Sep 13, 2010 17:04 PM
rating: 0
 
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The Week in Quotes: Se... (09/13)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Vazquez'... (09/13)
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