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July 21, 2010

Fantasy Beat

Hot Spots: Outfield

by Rob McQuown

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Value Picks 2010 PECOTA Games '10 Scoresheet
Michael Brantley CLE 101 1 8 7 2 .163 .220 .217 .282 .354 .378 7 16 0 +13 –39 2.11
Pat Burrell SF 120 5 15 13 0 .275 .367 .451 .249 .346 .455 28 0 0 –10 +20 1.99
Tyler Colvin CHN 223 13 36 34 2 .270 .320 .529 .246 .297 .412 40 11 34 +20 –71 2.12
Coco Crisp OAK 100 3 18 17 8 .227 .283 .455 .274 .352 .415 0 23 0 –4 +10 2.17
Lastings Milledge PIT 299 3 27 29 5 .283 .350 .398 .275 .329 .415 55 0 20 –10 +25 2.10
Felix Pie BAL 63 2 9 4 0 .310 .355 .517 .284 .345 .471 15 0 0 +24 –79 2.15
Jose Tabata PIT 153 1 17 11 9 .259 .327 .360 .280 .335 .420 32 5 0 –16 +40 2.10
Subscribe to Heater: Avg for Left Field .274 .342 .440   vRH = OPS v RH
Heater Magazine Avg for Center Field .269 .338 .424   vLH = OPS v LH
  Avg for Right Field .275 .348 .449   Rng = Range
  Avg for All Outfield .273 .343 .438  

Self-Congratulation: As frequent readers of this column know, mistakes sometimes get made here, and they get exposed so that fantasy owners can hopefully learn from them. By the same token, it's sometimes good to remember how useful such recommendations can be. Week after week, Delmon Young kept producing the same tepid stats, and was receiving numerous days off... yet he kept appearing as a “Value Pick”, week after week. Now, it appears he might make it to 20 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .300 – all this despite missing almost 100 possible plate appearances in the early going. Not quite on that lofty level, but VP mainstays Drew Stubbs and Andres Torres graduated and continue to represent well. Stubbs went from .213/.300/.373 in the May 26 edition (when he was added) to hit .286/.343/.484 (with 7 SB and 8 HR) since, and he's dramatically improved his defensive metrics in keeping with the commentary at the time. Torres was added the same week and has hit .264/.358/.489, with 11 steals and 6 homers since. Even Mike Stanton has lived up to his billing, hammering five home runs in his past 79 at-bats (with the expected batting average problems). With that history in mind, onward.

Keep the Faith: Michael Brantley hit .292/.370/.333 the past week, picking up two steals and generally doing what was expected, though more runs and RBI would be expected with all the winning Cleveland has been doing lately (maybe this is some sort of Lou Brown memorial push for a Hollywood ending? R.I.P. James Gammon, 7/16). Jose Tabata is getting hot, hitting .348/.348/.522 with a steal. For perspective on how Tabata's been doing, only three outfielders have more steals than Tabata over the past 30 days: Carl Crawford, Coco Crisp, and Michael Bourn (plus Ben Zobrist, who qualifies in the outfield, of course).

Along for the Ride: Somehow, the future former manager of the Chicago Cubs determined that Tyler Colvin should be leading off, even against lefties. That should maximize his plate appearances, at least - and it led to seven (7) runs last week for the low-OBP slugger. It's difficult for a player to get three steals in a week when his only three times on base are two doubles and a walk, but Coco Crisp managed it last week. That's very encouraging news for fantasy owners, who can be assured that his batting stats will stabilize near his career norms, and now know that his legs are fully healthy and he has a frequent “green light” to steal. Felix Pie hit an empty .273, but has received plenty of playing time with Corey Patterson dinged.

Yellow Card: Burrell only played four games and drew four walks. Being stubborn enough to keep him on the VP list through this four-game set in Arizona isn't looking like the best decision, but hope for the best and look for someone else starting Monday. With the understanding that he should be kept for the Arizona series, he's getting kicked off the list this week.

Hiding in Plain Sight: Remember Lastings Milledge? Well, despite the lack of attention the team earns, Pittsburgh isn't The Void, and Milledge is still playing Major League baseball. In fact, he has 299 plate appearances. And he's hitting .283. After hitting .291 in Pittsburgh last year. Seriously, who would have guessed? Without gushing over the unspectacular-but-able job that Neal Huntington has done, the Pirates are no longer offensively inept, and Milledge has shown recent signs that some of his previously-hyped talent is translating into baseball performance. Meanwhile, other dead weight has been removed from the lineup, and the team has a nearly-average hitter (or better) in seven of the eight positions now, allowing for a much better run environment than the team season stats would suggest.

Speaking of improving on season stats, Milledge has been on a tear lately. After going homerless through June 26, he has hit three taters in his last 56 plate appearances. The 1-in-20 rate won't be sustained, but this is a guy who slugged .580 in the Sally League at age 19 (back in '04). He's hitting almost 50% of his balls in play on the ground now, so even 20 HR in a full season would be wishful thinking. But he does hit 20% of his balls in play for line drives, and strikes out in under 20% of his plate appearances. And he makes solid contact, hitting the ball hard, even when on the ground. Milledge has obviously been maddeningly inconsistent in his career – from his 7 HR in 206 PA age 22 season, to his 23-steal season in Washington, to his powerless first 3 months of 2010, and now to a month of raking (.317/.368/.508 the past 30 days). It does seem clear that the immense talent he's always been believed to harbor is still there, however, making him a high-upside pick, even after all this time.

Rob McQuown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Rob's other articles. You can contact Rob by clicking here

Related Content:  Jose Tabata

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links


Re: "Self-Congratulation", I just wanted to reiterate the point that, despite never leaving comments, I read your Hot Spot articles religiously. A wonderful fantasy mainstain...!

Jul 21, 2010 14:26 PM
rating: 1


Jul 21, 2010 17:08 PM
rating: 0

I'm on that train as well. Could you do a "Hot Spots" replacements? We all know that Domonic Brown will replace Werth if traded and that Arenciba will replace Buck in Toronto. But what about the other potential trades and fill-ins? Who replaces Oswalt or Lilly if traded? Who starts in the OF if DeJesus gets traded, etc...

Jul 22, 2010 03:34 AM
rating: 0
BP staff member Rob McQuown
BP staff

This is a great idea. Last week's All-Star edition was supposed to spotlight some of the 2nd-half guys to pay attention to, but I agree that there are some very specific ones which will come up as trades become more imminent.

The Royals situation is a particularly interesting question, and one which may not be getting talked about enough for fantasy purposes. For KC, the ideal situation would be for them to trade Dejesus for a lot of prospect value (since there's a cheap club option on him in 2011 - well, $6mil cheap), and then see if they can't get a couple shiny pennies for Jose Guillen. As Craig Brown pointed out (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11540), Ankiel is due back imminently, though with a $6mil mutual option for 2011 and his constant health issues, he doesn't appear to have much of a future with KC. So...

If I had to guess, I'd guess that Betemit is allowed to DH until he struggles, at which point Kila Ka'aihue (.302/.455/.580 at AAA) will again be overlooked for the job. Alex Gordon is facing a tough situation, in that all of Pods, Maier, and Ankiel also bat left-handed, but Maier is nothing more than a 4th OF anyway, so Gordon's best hope is that Ankiel shows himself capable of manning CF and Maier struggles. Still, if I was going to roll the dice that both vets get traded, I'd probably go with Betemit first, since he's already playing a lot, then Gordon over Ka'aihue, since the organization seems determined to avoid finding out whether Kila can handle MLB pitching.

Jul 22, 2010 09:31 AM
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