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June 7, 2010

Future Shock Blog

Final Mock Draft: Mock Away

by Kevin Goldstein

1. Washington Nationals: Move along, nothing to see here.

Pick: Bryce Harper, C/OF, College of Southern Nevada

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: The needle seems to have move a bit towards James Taillon over Manny Machado. The Pirates think Taillon is the better talent, and will pay slightly more for him, but if they think he'll cost significantly more, they'll go back to Machado.

Pick: Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (TX)

3. Baltimore Orioles: Easiest pick to project after number one, as they'll simply take the player Pittsburgh doesn't.

Pick: Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS (FL)

4. Kansas City Royals: Hardly a lock, but Yasmani Grandal is where the Royals are leaning. Chris Sale seems to still be in the mix (Drew Pomeranz seems to be out), and there's a fun last-minute rumor of the Royals pulling off a shocker here and going cheaper (with a college position player) in order to spend later.

Pick: Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami

5. Cleveland Indians: Chris Sale will be awfully tempting here, but like the Royals, Cleveland has cooled a bit on Pomeranz. Still the name at the top of their board seems to be the best college position player in the draft.

Pick: Michael Choice, OF, UT-Arlington

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: This remains the highest landing spot for Matt Harvey, but ten days ago, they never dreamed of Sale getting to them.

Pick: Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast

7. New York Mets: Still a lot of players in the mix here. Zack Cox has floated a big number out there money-wise, and while it seems like there are several teams willing to call that bluff, it's still hard to find a home for him.  Late rumors have the Mets preferring Harvey and being comfortable with the cost.

Pick: Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina

8. Houston Astros: Houston likes the high-ceiling high school players this year, with an intense fixation on Delino DeShields, Jr.  How intense? They could take him here as a huge overdraft just to make sure they get him. Most think scouting director Bobby Heck will come to his senses by this evening.

Pick: Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchett HS (WA)

9. San Diego Padres: Pick a card, any card. The Padres could reach here for Kolbrin Vitek, they could could go with a young arm like Karsten Whitson, and while they'd love for Choice to be here, that's not happening. The rumor of their attachment to Nick Castellanos won't go away either. Zack Cox, however, could be too hard to pass up.

Pick: Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas

10. Oakland Athletics: The A's want Choice, but their backup plan could surprise a lot of people. A high school catcher? At ten? To Oakland of all people? Believe it.

Pick: Justin O'Conner, C, Cowan HS (IN)

11. Toronto Blue Jays: I had Josh Sale here three days ago, and that will still be the pick if he's available. Houston has bigger interest in Sale, but they have an interesting rivalry brewing with Toronto here, as if they don't take DeShields at eight, this is the team they're afraid might scoop him up. Plenty of athletes in the mix here, including the first potential landing spot for Austin Wilson, but Pomeranz can't fall forever . . . can he?

Pick: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi

12. Cincinnati Reds: No changes here. Vitek and Wimmers seem to be the primary targets, but they'll be tempted by Grandal if he falls, as well as Colon. 

Pick: Kolbrin Vitek, 2B, Ball State

13. Chicago White Sox: Same story here as well, as I've heard nothing but a slew of college arms. McGuire would be a bit of a surprise, as Chicago might opt for something cheaper like Asher Wojciechowski, Brandon Workman or Barret Loux.

Pick: Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech

14. Milwaukee Brewers: My understanding is that the Brewers big three here are Ranaudo, Workman and Harvey. Ranaudo's SEC tournament showing might have saved him, but Milwaukee is still gauging both the medical and the money.

Pick: Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU

15. Texas Rangers: Still a tough pick to project, as the Rangers have to play it safe here. Loux and Workman are in play, as well as an extreme overdraft like Canadian catcher Kellin Deglan.

Pick: Asher Wojchiechowski, RHP, The Citadel

16. Chicago Cubs: Not at lot of feel here in the industry, some feel they'll be looking for an arm that can get to the rotation quickly like Alex Wimmers, and they'll have interest in Harvey if he gets this far. If San Diego passes on Castellanos, this could be his landing spot.

Pick: Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)

17. Tampa Bay Rays: Utterly no consensus on this one, with rumors on players from all four quadrants of the draft map. Karsten Whitson is better than the 17th best player in the draft, and he's the kind of athletic, projectable arm that the Rays covet.

Pick: Karston Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS (FL)

18. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: One scout put it best late last night by saying, "I've never seen a pitcher with this kind of stuff get [crapped] on by the scouting community as much as Stetson Allie." He's risky, but his upside doesn't rate far below Taillon's. While the Angels need to be careful money-wise with so many high picks, Allie is hard to pass up here and the kind of talent that scout director Eddie Bane cold be drawn to.

Pick: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS (OH)

19. Houston Astros: They want their Delino, they get their Delino here.

Pick: Delino DeShields, 2B, Woodward Academy (GA)

20. Boston Red Sox: Boston is always seen as a team that's willing to take a flyer, and Ranaudo might be this year's version, as might be Austin Wilson. There's also a good chance that the play it safer here and spend later.

Pick: Brett Eibner, OF/RHP, Arkansas

21. Minnesota Twins: The Twins have been on Wimmers all spring, and in this scenario, he gets there. His polish and command fits perfectly in this system.

Pick: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

22. Texas Rangers: The Rangers could take a catcher here, this could be another spot where we see Deglan, and it's the earliest spot I've heard of fast-falling college slugger Bryce Brentz. Still playing it conservatively, mostly due to ownership issues, the safety valve could remain open here.

Pick: Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas

23. Florida Marlins: Mentioned as merely a factor here three days ago, Florida high school Yordy Cabrera might be in the lead at this point, but local pitching products like A.J. Cole and Luke Jackson remain in the mix. Cabrera's age (he turns 20 in October) is a problem for some, but it's also one of the best bodies in the draft.

Pick: Yordy Cabrera, SS/RHP, Lakeland HS (FL)

24. San Francisco Giants: Mostly hearing college bats here, so I'll stick with what I had.

Pick: Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State

25. St. Louis Cardinals: Colon's signability and a general consensus that he can't play shortstop in the big leagues has him slipping. With their horrible system, St. Louis just wants the best player on board.

Pick: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton

26. Colorado Rockies: Again hoping for something to fall to them, the Rockies won't find a guy like Tyler Matzek this year, but Kaleb Cowart's asking price has him slipping. He's a steal at 26 if Colorado is willing to drop the coin.

Pick: Kaleb Cowart, 3B/RHP, Cook County HS (GA)

27. Philadelphia Phillies: As per usual, the Phillies are looking at high ceilings only and have interest in Cowart, as well as Allie. This could be an interesting spot for Austin Wilson as well, but teams wish that they had a better idea of just how much it will cost to steer him away from Stanford. Local lefty Jessie Biddle is the backup plan if they can't find a player they feel they can deal with.

Pick: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA)

28. Los Angeles Dodgers: High school outfielder Drew Vettleson pulled out of some workouts this week for teams with only sandwich picks, telling them he was sure he wasn't getting that far. One insider last night told me, "Every time I saw Vettleson this spring, Logan White was there."

Pick: Drew Vettleson, OF, Central Kitsap HS (WA)

29. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Still all about high school arms here, with Dylan Covey, Ryne Stanek and Aaron Sanchez in the mix as well. Several teams claim they are all over Cam Bedrosian (son of Steve), and fear he won't be there with their sandwich picks.

Pick: Cam Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS (GA)

30. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Still looking like they'll round out the trio of first-rounders with a safe college arm. They might prefer Arizona State's Seth Blair over Solis talent-wise, but they don't want to risk the Boras factor.

Pick: Sammy Solis, LHP, San Diego

31. Tampa Bay Rays: No change here. In fact, the chances (while hardly overwhelming) for this pick have probably increased a bit. Like pick No. 15, this one is unprotected, and the Rays will play it safe one way or another. If Deglan doesn't go here, he won't fall far, as Toronto is still very interested at No. 34.

Pick: Kellin Deglan, C, R.EMountain Secondary School (B.C., Canada)

32. New York Yankees: A lot of rumors going around for the Yankees to take a real reach here, including Texas high school righty Zach Lee, a first-round talent who needs a ton of money or he'll go play quarterback at LSU. Lee will still be around much, much later, so the Yankees don't need to risk another Gerrit Cole situation.

Pick: Jedd Gyorko, INF, West Virginia

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

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